Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco 2014 Preview

The Tour of the Basque Country is always an exciting race to watch, the parcours is full of short sharp climbs which lend themselves to attacking riding, while the absence of the truly high mountain finishes forces the GC riders to ride aggressively throughout. Given the spiky terrain and the overlap with the cobbled classic season there is usually a dearth of pure sprinters, with the flatter stages belonging to the more versatile fast men and teams filling their squads with climbers instead. The nature of the parcours and timing of the race also make it ideal preparation for the Ardennes week and provides an excellent barometer of form for the likely contenders there. The start list is still unofficial and changes are a certainty, so some rough calculations and guess work are required when preparing a preview and that should be borne in mind.

The Stages (Images from http://www.itzulia.net/en/2014)

 

Stage one

Stage one: Ordizia – Ordizia 153.4km

Stage one demonstrates why this race provides excellent preparation for the Ardennes classics, as the peloton has to tackle short and relatively sharp climbs throughout the day. The stage finishes 6.7km after the final ascent of the Alto de Gaintza, it’s short but steep. It’s a new climb to the race but the peloton climbs it for the first time about 50km earlier in the stage so we will get a good idea of what to expect on the final climb of the day. It certainly looks like an excellent attacking opportunity and any rider with their eye on the GC is going to have to be very alert on this stage

 

Stage two

Stage two: Ordizia – Dantxarinea (Urdazubi) 155.8km

Stage two features some significant climbing in the opening 110km but while the run in to the finish remains bumpy the stage should end with some sort of bunch sprint, though it looks like it may be an uphill sprint.

 

Stage three

Stage three: Urdazubi-Urdax – Vitoria-Gasteiz 194.5km

With climbing right from the start, stage three offers a great opportunity for a breakaway to establish a significant advantage, though if the wrong riders get up the road it could also see a frantic start as the peloton chases them down. It’s the longest stage in the race at 194.7km, there are two climbs in the final 35km and a 9km descent to the finish line and it could provide an opportunity for an attacker to spring away for the win. However the climbs don’t look that difficult so unless the GC teams really drive the pace or the descent is technical I would expect a reasonable sized group to reach the finish.

 

Stage four

Stage four: Vitoria-Gasteiz – Eibar-Arrate 151km

The most significant uphill finish in the race as the stage finishes atop the Alto de Usartza, a regular feature of the Tour of the Basque Country. It comes after another day full of climbing and it’s not a particularly long climb, coming in around 7km at 6.7%, but there is a 3km section in the middle which averages close to 10% and has a number of ramps in excess of that. The climb flattens off at the top with a short downhill section to the finish, Nairo Quintana (Movistar) won the stage last year and Samuel Sanchez (BMC) has a strong track record on this climb.

 

Stage five

Stage five: Eibar- Markina-Xemein 160.2km

The final road stage of the race has an imposing looking final 6okm full of the races characteristic short and sharp climbs, the final two of which are significant enough to provide a launch pad for a last roll of the dice ahead of the ITT. If a group reaches the finish together it will be a small one but it wouldn’t surprise me if a rider or a handful of riders can elude the chasers and stay clear to the finish.

 

Stage six

Stage six: Markina-Xemein – Markina-Xemein 25.9km

The race finishes with its customary time trial, this time on a hilly 25.9km course that should help to alleviate the weakness of some of the GC contenders against the clock.

 

The Riders

 

The Contenders

Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) has enjoyed a storming start to the season; he was easily the best rider in the Vuelta a Andalucia, looked strong in Strade Bianche then even better when winning Roma Maxima the following day. He has been familiarising himself on the cobbles in the past week and looked strong enough to contend for victory here. Valverde is fast enough to win the sprint if small groups come to the finishes together, though he should be wary of Kwiatkowski. Valverde looked good against the clock in the prologue of the Vuelta a Andalucia and the hills in the ITT will certainly suit him.

Alberto Contador (Tinkoff Saxo) is another rider who has enjoyed an impressive start to the season and showed his attacking intentions right from the start with victory on the Alto do Malhao in the Volta ao Algarve. Contador followed that with a terrific long range victory on stage five on his way to winning Tirreno-Adriatico. His form looks great but the lack of a fast finish could cost him here

The talented Michal Kwiatkowski (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) has taken another step forward in 2014 and is rapidly approaching phenomenon status, if he isn’t already there. A strong punchy climber and excellent time trialist, Kwiatkowski is an obvious contender in this race, and he should be hitting form ahead of the Ardennes classics. His one weakness has been keeping up with the best on the longer climbs, but that isn’t a big deal on this parcours, and while he could lose some time on stage four, it won’t be much and he is capable of taking it back again in the ITT. Kwiatkowski is also a very fast finisher and will be dangerous if he is in the front group on any of the stages.

The World Champion Rui Costa (Lampre-Merida) is still searching for that first win while wearing the rainbow stripes, but it hasn’t been for want of trying as he has consistently went on the offensive this season, with five 2nd place finishes to his credit. He is also well suited to the parcours, a good climber and time trialist, he descends well and has decent speed on the line, it may not be enough to bring the victory he craves, but he should be close.

Carlos Betancur (AG2R) is built for this sort of terrain, he excels on the punchy climbs and has good speed at the finish as he showed while winning Paris-Nice less than a month ago. However he abandoned the Volta a Catalunya with illness and if that has affected his condition the team could opt to go with Jean-Christophe Peraud, who won the Criterium International last weekend. Peraud is the stronger time trialist but Betancur coped well enough in the ITT in last year’s race and it had a similarly hilly parcours.

BMC would appear to have a host of options to lead them in the race. The form rider is Tejay van Garderen, he was looked strong in the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya, and will be keen to get some more race days in the legs to make up for being forced out of Paris-Nice with illness. Cadel Evans was off the pace in Tirreno-Adriatico and will need to find some form ahead of the Giro d’Italia, while the team could use the race to give either Samuel Sanchez or Darwin Atapuma a chance to show what they can do. Of course the Basque Sanchez is the obvious option; he knows this race superbly and has enjoyed success in the past, while Atapuma has the natural skill set to do well on this terrain.

Bauke Mollema (Belkin Pro Cycling Team) has yet to hit the heights of last July this season, but he remains a strong competitor. A very good climber and solid time trialist, he is also capable of riding very aggressively and has decent speed on the line.

Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) has had a quiet start to the season, but the big Canadian has shown himself to be an aggressive rider when he has the right form and he could certainly shake things up. The team should have an excellent alternative in Tom-Jelte Slagter, a double stage winner in Paris-Nice, the talented puncheur will be at home on this parcours. Several finishes come after descents and if any of those are particularly technical then watch out for Janier Acevedo, the Colombian is terrific going downhill.

Simon Spilak (Katusha Team) showed he was starting to hit form towards the end of Paris-Nice as he launched several late attacks from the peloton. The aggressive climber should arrive here in stronger form and is more than capable of upsetting some of the bigger names.

When Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto Belisol) crashed out of Tirreno-Adriatico with a knee injury there was an initial worry that the serious problems that derailed his 2013 campaign were back. Thankfully that wasn’t the case and he is back racing, but he still remains a little short of the form he needs if he is to be competitive here.

If given the opportunity to ride for himself, Tanel Kangert (Astana) is more than capable of being a major factor in this race. A super-domestique for Vincenzo Nibali, Kangert has a strong all-round skill set and the attacking attitude to excel on this punchy terrain; he is also a capable, if inconsistent time trialist.

It seems likely that Team Sky would opt for Mikel Nieve to lead them in his home race. The gifted climber is set to be a key domestique for the team in the Tour de France, and having an opportunity for some personal glory ahead of that is good for the spirit of a domestique.

Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) has struggled to get going so far in 2014 but having finally finished a stage race in Catalunya he will hope to be more competitive here.

Warren Barguil (Giant-Shimano) is clearly an extremely gifted rider, and isn’t neither afraid of going on the offensive nor intimidated in the presence of the biggest names in cycling. He will have to be aggressive though as he seems certain to lose time on the final day ITT.

This parcours should be ideal for an aggressive rider such as Luis Leon Sanchez (Caja Rural). A highly opportunistic rider who likes to attack on climbs close to the finish, he is capable of descending away from the pack. Sanchez is also a strong time trialist and seems a natural candidate to contend here, but he was off the pace in Catalunya and that must be a concern, perhaps he struggled with the poor conditions and can recover for this next race.

Moreno Moser (Cannondale) is getting the chance to ride for himself after having worked for Peter Sagan for much of the season and he needs to make the most of it. A talented punchy climber, Moser has the skill set to impress on this parcours but he will have to be aggressive to do so.

It’s the latest race on the comeback trail for Frank Schleck (Trek Factory Racing) and he is coming into form ahead of the Ardennes classics. He finished 6th overall in the Criterium International and looked very strong on the Col de l’Ospidale. Time trialing is his likely downfall but the team can also call upon Bob Jungels who excels against the clock and is improving as a climber.

Cyril Gautier (Europcar) had a strong Paris-Nice, where he finished 6th overall. A punchy rider who is suited to the hilly parcours, he can struggle with the longer climbs but that isn’t a concern in this race, though he will likely lose some ground on the final stage time trial.

 

Other Riders to Watch

Michael Matthews (Orica GreenEDGE) is the fastest finisher in the race and a terrific climber for a fast man; he is the obvious favourite for stages two and three. The Australian team will also be hoping to see signs of form for Simon Gerrans, he opened the season on fire but a short break has been followed by illness and it may have left him short of form ahead of his next major targets in the Ardennes.

Philippe Gilbert (BMC) should be getting close to the form necessary to excel in the Ardennes and will use this race as his final tune up ahead of those races. If the form is there he could get involved in any reduced sprints and could well launch an attack on one of the stages with a hill near the end and a descent to the finish.

Tony Martin (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) is the clear favorite for the ITT, though the hilly nature of the course does play into the hands of the GC riders. Yet to win in 2014, the World Time Trial Champion will be keen to break his duck here and the fact that it is the longest time trial he has raced this season definitely suits him.

Ben Swift (Team Sky) is finally enjoying some success after suffering from rotten luck in 2013. Swift is a fast finisher and climbs well, he should be in contention on stages two and three, his podium placing in Milan-San Remo and stage victories in the Coppi e Bartali show the form is there to be a danger man in this race.

Jose Joaquin Rojas (Movistar) has long been one of the best climbing sprinters around, lacking the speed to take on the top sprinters but capable of getting over hills that they can’t and finding success that way. He is only 28 but he seems to have lost some of his sprinting speed, which makes victories even harder to come by, but his climbing is better than ever and he showed great form to finish 4th overall in Paris-Nice.

The punchy Arthur Vichot (FDJ) took a fine win from a small group on the lumpy final stage of Paris-Nice, and there are similar stages in this race. I think we can expect to see that impressive French National Champion Jersey to the fore

Daniele Ratto (Cannondale) is at his best on the tougher sprint finishes and should be able to be competitive in this field.

 

 

Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Preview #2: The Riders

With an impressive parcours, see here, and a strong start list featuring an impressive field of stage racers, the 2014 Tirreno-Adriatico looks set to be a very exciting race. The withdrawal of Chris Froome does rob us of one of this seasons only head to head battles between Froome and Quintana, however instead we gain some insight into how the contenders for the Giro compare two months out. With all three elite sprinters in attendance as well as a number of other fast finishers, the sprints on stages two, six and potentially three, should be terrific; a rare opportunity to see the best sprinters go head to head at this stage of the season.

The contenders

Alberto Contador – Tinkoff-Saxo: This is a crucial season for Alberto Contador as he seeks to prove that he can return to his best. He was terrific when winning the Vuelta in 2012, going very deep to do so and I still suspect that had a knock on effect on his off-season training prior to 2013. The hangover from that lasted throughout 2013, by the end of March he was already complaining of fatigue and never seemed to recover. So Contador approached the 2014 season with a new training and race program in an effort to win the biggest races once again. If the new regimen is working then we should expect to see Contador to the fore in this race and in the two that follow, the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya and the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco. His season started well when he won a stage and finished 2nd overall in the Volta ao Algarve, the terrain and competition will be much tougher for Tirreno-Adriatico, so it’s reassuring that he has the support of Roman Kreuziger and Nicolas Roche. Kreuziger in particular showed good form to finish 5th in Strade Bianche at the weekend and would be a viable alternative leadership option for the team.

Nairo Quintana – Movistar: Movistar will be led by star climber Nairo Quintana, who looks certain to be a major contender for the overall victory. While he can time trial well for his build he will always be vulnerable on the flat courses the Colombian knows he will lose time to some on the final stage so he will have to be aggressive on stages four and five to ensure he enters the final day with a lead. Quintana may find his best opportunity comes on the very steep Muro di Guardiagrele where being shorter and lighter gives him an advantage, but he is always dangerous on a stage with a summit finish. Quintana will have strong support in the mountains, and the wealth of time trialing talent on the Movistar squad should ensure that Quintana avoids losing any significanttime to his rivals on the opening stage.

Rigoberto Uran – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: Early into his first season as a team leader, the Colombian climber has already been making a good impression. He looked good in the Tour of Oman, finishing 3rd overall while recording 2nd and 3rd place finishes on the two most difficult stages. Uran will be keen to follow that up with an even stronger showing in Italy. He won’t be alone either as Michal Kwiatkowski gives the team a very strong second GC contender, one who comes into the race on the back of an exciting victory in Strade Bianche. Last season Kwiatkowski used Tirreno-Adriatico to really announce himself as a contender on the world stage, wearing the leader’s jersey and finishing 4th overall, there is no reason to doubt he can repeat that, or even improve upon it this year.

Richie Porte – Team Sky: Although he is a late addition to the race after the withdrawal of Chris Froome, Porte had been preparing to defend his Paris-Nice title so he should be just fine. In truth the switch benefits him as he is a better fit for Tirreno-Adriatico’s more traditional stage race parcours. Porte hasn’t approached his best form so far this season, so while this race will give him a great insight into where he stands compared to his Giro rivals, it may not tell us that much about how well he will be going in May. There will certainly be no shortage of support, with climbers and engines aplenty, and as with Movistar, the Sky unit looks well equipped to excel on the opening stage TTT

Cadel Evans – BMC Racing Team: With his sights firmly set on the Giro, and his roots now planted in Italy, Evans will be eager to succeed here. He started the season showing good but not yet great form in Australia, Evans took a little time off after that but a 7th place finish in Strade Bianche shows that he is getting back into form in time for Tirreno-Adriatico. Evans won the race in 2011 and to repeat that feat he needs to stay in touch with Quintana, Contador and whoever else seizes the initiative on the mountain stages; it won’t be easy, but if he has the form to do so then a podium finish is certainly possible.

Daniel Moreno – Katusha Team: An explosive climber, Moreno will lead the Russian team in Tirreno-Adriatico, while the time trials won’t be too his liking, the climbing certainly will and he could be a dangerous rider for the overall classification. Moreno comes to the fore when the gradients are steepest, as he did when attacking on the Mur de Huy to win La Fleche Wallonne last year, and as he will likely try to do on the Muro di Guardiagrele at the conclusion of stage five.

Chris Horner – Lampre-Merida: Horner has had a quiet start to his career with the Italian team but they will be hoping that the winner of the 2013 Vuelta a Espana can start to deliver here, particularly as it is on Italian soil. The 42 year old was 6th overall in last year’s race and the mountainous stages should certainly suit him. If Horner struggles to repeat that, then the team can call on either Damiano Cunego or Diego Ulissi, both of whom have shown some good form recently; Ulissi may be particularly interested in the finish of stage five.

Robert Gesink – Belkin Pro Cycling Team: Gesink comes to Italy in good form after 6th and 5th overall finishes in the Tour Down Under and the Tour of Oman respectively. He looked good on Green Mountain, finishing 5th on the stage and while he wasn’t able to follow Chris Froome, nor was anyone else. Gesink was 2nd overall in the 2011 edition of Tirreno-Adriatico, and while it will be difficult for him to repeat that he will hope to come close. With Bauke Mollema in attendance the team has a second GC option and the leadership will likely be determined by their form on the road. Mollema has less racing in his legs than Gesink, but he looked decent on both uphill finishes in the Vuelta a Andalucia and with two more weeks of training since he could be dangerous.

Andrew Talansky – Garmin-Sharp: This time last season, the young American was winning over fans with a strong and very aggressive display on his way to a 2nd overall finish in Paris-Nice. A little too aggressive perhaps as his attacks on the fifth stage left him vulnerable when Porte launched his own attack, ultimately costing Talansky the Yellow Jersey. The talented American is assuming more of a leadership role this season and this is his first chance to show how much he has progressed. An excellent time trialist, Talansky will be hoping to upset some of the bigger names and fight his way into the top five, provided he is the teams designated leader in the race. Daniel Martin is finally beginning his 2014 campaign and is certainly capable of contending in this race. However he may ride in support of Talansky, while building his own form to defend the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya and hit the Ardennes in top form.

Jean-Christophe Peraud – AG2R La Mondiale: The lack of a time trial or a high mountain finish in Paris-Nice has led the veteran Peraud to opt to ride Tirreno-Adriatico instead. Peraud is strong against the clock and a solid climber and is a legitimate GC contender as a result. He finished 3rd overall in Paris-Nice at this time last season and is once again enjoying a good early season form, having finished 2nd overall in the Tour Mediterraneen. Domenico Pozzovivo gives the team an alternative option, the finish to the fifth stage is particularly suited to the diminutive climber, though he is likely to lose some time during the flat ITT on the final day. His attack during Roma Maxima last Sunday shows that he is in good shape right now and he could be very dangerous in this race.

Jurgen Van den Broeck – Lotto Belisol: After an injury truncated 2013 season, it was always going to be a slow start to the season for the Belgian stage race specialist. He has traditionally preferred to start finding his form at the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya which starts a week after Tirreno-Adriatico, however after few races to get his condition back and having had a disappointing 2013, he should be looking to be competitive here.

Pierre Rolland – Europcar: It’s been a slow start to the season for the Frenchman but he will be hoping to make much more of an impression here. After the team earned promotion to the World Tour, a decision was made to broaden Rolland’s racing horizons, giving him a race schedule with a more international flavour to it. It was partly motivated by a desire to move him away from the endless pressure of being one of the next big French riders, but it is also an important step in his development and will see him ride a number of stage races that suit his skill set. This edition of Tirreno-Adriatico is one such race, the difficult mountain days should bring the best out of Rolland and give him great preparation for his bigger targets later in the season.

Tanel Kangert – Astana Pro Team: Much depends on the role that the team give to Kangert, is he riding in support of Michele Scarponi, or riding as the leader? I hope he is given his shot as a leader; his work over the past two seasons merits the opportunity to test himself as a leader in a prestigious stage race. Kangert is a very good climber and useful time trialist who has really developed a strong all-round skill set; he has enough speed to make him a potential stage winner if a group of climber comes to the line. Of course Astana could choose to back Michele Scarponi instead, the hugely experienced Italian climber will lead the team at the Giro later this year and is capable of producing a strong ride on this parcours.

Stefano Pirazzi – Bardiani-CSF: Pirazzi is an explosive climber and winner of the Mountains Classification in the Giro d’Italia last year, and also in the 2012 edition of this race. He could target the KoM jersey once again in this race and if he sneaks into the break on stage two that’s what he is doing. However the team talked last year of pushing Pirazzi as a GC rider in the future; with a strong field and a testing parcours, this race is a perfect opportunity to test his progress and potential in that regard.

Ivan Basso – Cannondale: After a fairly turgid 2013 season in which he started very slowly, Basso will be hoping for something altogether more impressive this year, and a strong showing in Tirreno-Adriatico would really help with that. In fairness to Basso, after a sluggish start and a number of injury/illness absences, he did start to show good form in the Vuelta, only to suffer and withdraw from the race after some wretched weather conditions. Stage four will be key for Basso, the long climbs have always suited him, and while he is unlikely to recapture the form that won him the 2010 Giro d’Italia, he is still capable of pulling out a good performance in a race such as this.

Thibaut Pinot- FDJ.fr: Pinot had an up and down season in 2013 and will be hoping to finally get this one off to a decent start, after illness forced his withdrawal from the Tour of Oman. It’s hard to know what to expect from him given his lack of racing, but Pinot remains a gifted climber who is willing to go on the offensive. Alexandre Geniez could well be the leader if Pinot is struggling for race fitness, and would be a solid option, the team hope he can mature into more of a leadership role but he isn’t there yet.

Robert Kiserlovski – Trek Factory Racing: The Croatian climber is the teams GC rider in this race and will hope to go very well on the two mountainous stages to compensate for the time he will likely lose on the final day. Stage four and the final climb to Selva Rotonda should suit him well. He should have capable support from one of the best climbers of the early season in Julian Arredondo, the Colombian won two summit finishes during the Tour de San Luis and looks well suited to the very steep finish on stage five.

Ivan Santaromita – Orica GreenEDGE: the Italian Champion is a good climber and will be keen to impress in his Italian Jersey on home soil, though it will be tough for him to break into the top 10 against this level of competition.

The stage winners

Andre Greipel – Lotto Belisol: The form sprinter of the year so far, the powerful German will be hoping to stand atop the podium once again. Victories in the Tour Down Under, Tour of Qatar and Tour of Oman have showcased Greipel’s power and speed as well as the Lotto Belisol lead out train. Greipel has also been climbing consistently well which is a testament to his form and fitness, though the mountainous stages here are far beyond him. With Kittel and Cavendish in attendance, the support of a strong lead out to support him, and the desire to bring his form to a peak ahead of Milan-San Remo, he will be a force in all of the sprint stages.

Mark Cavendish – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: Cavendish has eased his way into the 2014 season, slowly building fitness and using the early races to work through some of the kinks in the OPQS sprint train. He picked up his first win in the Volta ao Algarve, but the absence of top ten finishes prior to that would certainly suggest he was riding for training rather than riding to win. Over the last few seasons Cavendish has often been some way from his best in Tirreno-Adriatico, saving his energies for the bigger targets to come. Yet the presence of both Greipel and Kittel in this race turns this into a more serious affair for all three sprinters, and he will certainly be keen to hit top form ahead of what may be his final ride of La Primavera.

Marcel Kittel – Giant-Shimano: The third elite sprinter comes into the race after a less than ideal build up. After finding his form with a trio of straight forward victories in the Dubai Tour, Kittel was forced to withdraw from his next race, the Vuelta a Andalucia, on the second day citing a lack of power. Additionally, unlike Greipel and Cavendish, Kittel won’t be riding Milan-San Remo and as a result he may not be in quite the same shape as the other two, which would put him at a disadvantage. Even so with two great opportunities for bunch sprints against the best sprinters in the world, Kittel will be keen to demonstrate that his dominance of the sprints in last season’s Tour de France represents the new order..

Peter Sagan – Cannondale: A double stage winner in last year’s race, with less intermediate type stages the Slovak superstar may find that difficult to match this time round. He will of course be competitive in the sprints, but winning a large bunch sprint against all three elite sprinters will be tough, though if winds break things up it will greatly improve his chances. With the classics just around the corner Sagan should also be reaching a slightly higher level of fitness that the elite sprinters and that could level the playing field, he certainly looked very strong when he broke free from the leading group in Strade Bianche. The third stage should give him his best opportunity for victory; the ramping finish is ideal for him and makes life harder for the purer sprinters. While Sagan can normally compete for wins on some of the more hilly stages, I don’t see it happening this time, stage four is just too mountainous and the gradients at the conclusion of the fifth stage are too steep and suit other riders better.

Sacha Modolo – Lampre-Merida: With four victories already, Modolo’s Lampre-Merida career has gotten off to a flying star; he will carry a lot of confidence into this race. It won’t be easy for him to win given the collection of sprinters in attendance, but the top sprinters are often still slightly vulnerable at this stage of the season and Modolo is coming here with great form so he certainly has a chance. Lampre-Merida can also call on the services of Filippo Pozzato, and while I am not convinced any of the stages will be ideal for him, he could try his luck on stage three with the drag up to the finish.

Arnaud Demare – FDJ.fr: With a stage win in the Tour of Qatar and showing good form in Belgium last weekend, Demare comes to Italy in good shape and should be competitive on all the sprint stages. Watch out for him on stage three in particular, the ramp up to the finish line changes the dynamic of the sprint and Demare showed just how explosive he could be in an uphill sprint during the Eneco Tour last summer.

Gerald Ciolek – MTN Qhubeka: The German sprinter shocked everyone when he won Milan-San Remo last season. Ciolek had long been considered a talent, but a career that was once full of youthful promise seemed to have stagnated. He stepped down from the World Tour, signed for what was then a somewhat obscure South African team that was making its first foray into the Pro Continental ranks, then out of nowhere he lands a career defining result, a magnificent day for rider and team. While they have yet to receive the Grand Tour invite that most cycling fans want them to get, fingers crossed for the Vuelta, that result has ensured they have a healthy portfolio of wild card invites to World Tour events; they will be keen to impress. Once again Ciolek is their best bet for success, he is a good sprinter but may find the competition on stages two and six a little too tough to challenge for a win, however the uphill drag finish on stage three should be much more to his liking.

Tony Martin – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: The World Time Trial Champion will be part of a very strong team time trial unit for the opening stage and an obvious favourite for the ITT on the final day. Although he is generally at his best on the longer time trials where his terrific power can do more damage, Martin is also excellent on shorter technical courses; he won the stage last year and clearly knows what it will take to do it again.

Philippe Gilbert – BMC Racing Team: The Belgian showed he was reaching decent form with a solid run in Roma Maxima and should be dangerous if he finds himself in position to go for a stage win. He could contend on stage three but I’m not sure the finish is steep enough to swing the advantage his way over some of the faster finishers.

Adriano Malori – Movistar: Along with Alex Dowsett, Andrey Amador and Jonathan Castroviejo, Malori is part of a Movistar team that will be very hard to beat in the team time trial on the opening day. Any of them could contend in the ITT on the final day but Malori has been the strongest this season and will fancy his chances of taking his second victory against the clock.

Fabian Cancellara – Trek Factory Racing: After Strade Bianche, it is clear that Cancellara’s form isn’t quite there yet, but it’s getting close and this race should be enough to bring it to where it needs to be ahead of the Classics. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Cancellara try an attack somewhere to stretch his legs, whether going in a break or trying to get involved on the finish of stage three. Clearly his best stage winning opportunity will come on the final stage and the ITT, while he is no longer a pure time trial specialist, he remains terrific in that discipline. This is a solid Trek lineup that includes another strong time trialist in Jesse Sergent, so the team should be amongst the best on the opening stage as well.

Luke Durbridge – Orica GreenEDGE: Part of a strong team time trial unit with Svein Tuft, Michael Hepburn, Cameron Meyer and Jens Mouris, any of whom could be targeting success on the final stage.

Sam Bennett – NetApp-Endura: The 23 year old Irish sprinter comes into the race on the crest of a wave, a first victory in NetApp-Endura colours at the Clasica Almeria, following on from impressive performances in Qatar and Oman. Realistically this race is a huge step up in class and not one where he is likely to compete at this stage of his career, though he will benefit hugely from the experience of sprinting against the best in the world. However confidence is huge in sprinting and he has it right now, so you never know.

Sonny Colbrelli – Bardiani-CSF: The Italian team have a number of punchy riders or fast finishers, taking form and strength of field into consideration, Colbrelli looks to be their strongest potential stage winner on this parcours. The 23 year old already has nine top 5 road finishes to his credit this season, most coming on hillier stages with sprints from a reduced peloton. While he probably isn’t the teams fastest option for the flat finishes, neither Nicola Ruffoni nor Filippo Fortin are likely to find much joy against the elite sprinters that are present. Colbrelli’s best chance may come on stage three with the uphill sprint finish, but it will be tough for him to make an impact against the calibre of riders in this race. Enrico Battaglin shares some similarities to Colbrelli, but doesn’t have the same form coming into the race.

Heinrich Haussler – IAM Cycling: Haussler gives the Swiss team an option the sprints and along with Matteo Pelucchi will be their most likely stage winner, though that will be difficult against this competition. His best chance will come if winds have broken things up..

The Quest for the Yellow Jersey: Chris Froome vs Vincenzo Nibali

If all goes to plan, the field of riders taking part in the Grand Depart of 101st edition of the Tour de France, will include Chris Froome and Vincenzo Nibali in the form of their lives, and ready to go head to head for the greatest prize in cycling. Of course there are 174 days before the peloton lines up in Leeds and an awful lot can happen before then, but it is to be hoped that the two most impressive stage race riders will be there to contest the Tour in 2014.

This year’s Tour starts with two stages in Yorkshire, makes its way down to London then into Northern France. The race doesn’t reach the truly high mountains until almost two weeks have passed when they hit the Alps, but those final nine stages will surely be the decisive stretch of the race. However the full race profiles aren’t available yet, and there are sure to be traps or surprises along the way, such as a 2nd stage into Sheffield full of short sharp climbs. The steepest of those comes with just 5km to go, it is only 800m long but with a gradient of up to 33% and being close to the finish, it should be a launch pad for stage victory and potentially an early GC skirmish. Stage 5 from Ypres to Arenberg, an area of battlegrounds from the First World War, and includes a number of the cobbled sections used in Paris-Roubaix. It isn’t a day that suits the GC riders but it could still prove pivotal, with crashes and punctures likely the contenders will just hope to avoid losing the race there; a strong team will be desirable. Stages 8-10 take place in the Vosges, offering the first serious climbs in the race and two tough uphill finishes. The finish La Planche des Belles Filles, on stage 10, is 5.9km at 8.5% and steepest at the summit, it’s more than tough enough to force the contenders to show their form; with a rest day to follow we should expect fireworks. The riders reach the Alps and two more summit finishes on stages 13 and 14, with climbs to the Chamrousse and Risoul ski resorts, respectively. After that there is a transition stage and rest day before they reach the Pyrenees. Stage 16 finishes with the climb of the tough Port de Bales and the fast descent into Bagneres-du-Luchon, while stages 17 and 18 are short stages with lots of climbing. If the race is still tight at this point, then stage 18 should be magnificent, as the riders climb the iconic Col du Tourmalet before reaching the final summit finish of the race at Hautacam. The sole time trial comes on stage 20, a 54km ITT that will be decisive if the GC is tight at that point, I’m not sure that the course for that has been released yet.

The Riders

Chris Froome – Team Sky: The defending champion was magnificent when winning the 100th edition of the Tour, climbing superbly throughout, crushing his rivals on Ax 3 Domaines and Mont Ventoux before fading slightly in the final week. He was at his very best on stage 9, a mountainous Pyrenean stage that saw Froome isolated and under attack, almost from the very start of the day. Froome proved his strength that day, answering and ultimately subduing the attacks from the Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff teams who had hoped to take advantage of Froome’s lack of support. Chris Froome isn’t just an elite climber, the 2013 race featured to 30km+ ITTs where he finished 2nd and 1st, gaining time over all the other GC contenders in the process. If Froome has a weakness then it’s his descending, it comes less naturally to him than to some of the other GC contenders. However he has improved a little over time and so long as he has one of his better descending team mates to follow, then it’s a very tough aspect to attack. Froome has also displayed some inexperience, which others may be able to take advantage of, the kerfuffle over the final energy bar on L’Alpe d’Huez is a good example. The same stage 9 that Froome excelled on also saw him needlessly chase down some early attacks that lacked any threatening GC contenders, he didn’t pay for those needless exertions but it was still a mistake. The way he faded slightly in the last week of racing would suggest he had peaked a little too early in the race, either by accident or design, but none of his rivals were close enough in the standings to challenge. With the toughest stages being stacked into the second half the race in 2014, it’s not a pattern Froome can afford to repeat.

Vincenzo Nibali – Astana Pro Team: Nibali’s victory at the 2013 Giro d’Italia was every bit as comprehensive as Froome’s had been in France. Strong in the mountains throughout, Nibali got better the longer the race went on, culminating in the memorable victory in the snow atop the Tre Cime de Lavaredo. Had stage 19, and its summit finish not been cancelled due to the terrible weather, his margin of victory would surely have been greater. Bad weather was a theme throughout the race, with several stages being affected or shortened by the conditions, as he has done in the past, Nibali remained impressive, whatever the obstacles nature was throwing in his way. As with Froome, Nibali was also superb against the clock, however the two ITT stages at the giro were favourable for him, one loaded with small hills and short twisting descents, the other was a mountain ITT, it’s the flatter courses he is less adept on. Nibali is also one of the best descenders in the peloton, where his bike handling skills come to the fore, though he does sometimes take risks that don’t pay off.

The verdict: Advantage Froome at a push: Both riders are terrific climbers, while we will have to wait until later in this season to see how their form matches in 2014, at this point I have difficulty seeing how either rider has an advantage over the other in the mountains. That in turn plays into Froome’s hands as the difference may come on the penultimate day with the long ITT, he has been stronger against the clock than Nibali, particularly when the course is flat. Stage 19 of the 2012 Tour de France was a 52km and relatively flat ITT, Froome finished 2nd and Nibali 16th, 2:22 behind him. The 2013 Tirreno-Adriatico finished with a flat 9km ITT which saw Froome finish 11 seconds ahead of Nibali, though Nibali still won the race. Nibali has improved his time trialing since that 2012 Tour, but his best hope must lie in the profile being lumpy, the lumpier it is the better it will suit him, whereas Froome copes brilliantly with any terrain. Where Nibali does have an advantage over Froome is his descending and bike handling skills, if there are technical run-ins, tough descents, or even unseasonable weather conditions then Nibali can come to the fore and attempt to challenge Froome. The most obvious opportunity for this comes on stage 16, where the riders crest the tough Port de Bales then face a fast descent down to the finish. If Nibali can isolate Froome on the climb, and it will be very selective, then he has a real chance to gain some time, though he would need to go over the top of the climb in the lead as I am not convinced he would be able to go clear on the descent itself. The climb was the scene of the infamous slipped chain for Andy Schleck in 2010, however Schleck was only 13-14 seconds down when he crested the climb, he lost another 25 seconds on the descent. We will get an early indication of their relative form at the Tour of Oman in February, and perhaps again at Milan-San Remo. However it probably won’t be until the Criterium du Dauphine that they will meet with their Tour form in their legs, giving us an idea of how they will match up a month later.

The Teams

Team Sky are reportedly set to support Froome with Richie Porte, Sergio Henao, Vasil Kiryienka, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Peter Kennaugh, Mikel Nieve, Bradley Wiggins and either Geraint Thomas or Ian Stannard. There will be 3-4 other riders who have a compatible fitness program that would allow them to step in if things have to change, but the final line-up should look similar. The 2013 Tour saw some great and some not so great support for Froome. Stage 8 to Ax 3 Domaines was the high water mark, Sky were down to four riders when the peloton reached the penultimate climb, the Col de Pailheres. They placed Vasil Kiryienka on the front and he went into metronome mode, keeping the pace high and steady, wearing down and thinning out the peloton behind. It was a very strong performance from Kiryienka, one he would pay dearly for the following day. Once Kiryienka was finished, Kennaugh took up the pace, and then led the peloton superbly on the descent, before taking up the pace again on Ax 3 Domaines. Porte succeeded Kennaugh and raised the pace while doing so, setting the platform for Froome to explode from the peloton and win the stage. That was how the Sky train is supposed to work. The following day was the low water mark, with Peter Kennaugh crashing, Porte cracking slightly and Kiryienka cracking completely, finishing outside the time limit and being excluded from the race. Froome saved the day but the team clearly paid for their previous efforts. This presumptive 2014 squad looks stronger, the excellent Nieve has been signed and Henao drafted in, but the one concern must be Porte’s fitness, after he competes in the Giro. Astana have also settled on a likely line-up as Nibali can expect support from Jakob Fuglsang, Michele Scarponi, Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic, Fredrik Kessiakoff, Alessandro Vanotti, Lieuwe Westra and either Andrei Grivko or Dmitri Gruzdev. Another very strong team, and like Sky, they are entirely focused on winning the Yellow Jersey. Fuglsang and Kangert should be the key riders for Nibali, while Scarponi will likely struggle with fatigue having raced at the Giro, much like Porte. Brajkovic and Kessiakoff will both hope they can find their 2012 form, neither enjoyed much luck in 2013. Westra is a powerful all-rounder, he can excel on any terrain other than the high mountains, and he isn’t a bad climber either and should prove a shrewd addition.

The verdict: Advantage Astana by the smallest of margins: In the end I give the nod to Astana because while both teams have a rider set to compete to win the Giro, Porte is more important to Froome than Scarponi is to Nibali, therefore a tiny advantage to the Kazakh team. In truth both squads look terrific on paper, a mix of climbing and power, a wealth of experience and a number of riders who can feasibly be there when the racing is at its most intense.

Potential Spoilers

Alberto Contador – Tinkoff-Saxo: 2013 was a chastening experience for Contador, he was expected to challenge Froome for the Tour de France but fell well short, never having the legs of old. It wasn’t just the failure at the Tour however, Contador had struggled for form earlier in the season, had complained of fatigue in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco, before racing the Ardennes against his own desires. Contador has changed up his training, recovery and race programs for 2014, trying to keep himself fresher throughout the year, if he does I wouldn’t bet against him being competitive in July. Regardless of what you think of riders who have served a doping ban, Contador remains a terrific racer, a rider who always seems alive to the opportunity to attack, and who could do so explosively.

Alejandro Valverde/Nairo Quintana – Movistar: All signs point to Valverde being the lead rider for Movistar in France, with Quintana going to the Giro instead, but that hasn’t been absolutely confirmed as of yet. Valverde is a fine all round GC rider, a very good climber and time trialist and a rider with great finishing speed for a climber. Valverde is certainly capable of being in contention but unless something unexpected happens would likely be on the outside looking in against Froome and Nibali. Quintana presents a more exciting threat, a terrific pure climber who can put anyone under pressure on the summit finishes, but the long ITT would likely prevent him from winning against Froome or Nibali.

I think that’s about it for the realistic contenders, there are a number of riders who can challenge for the podium, or possibly even better if something should happen to Froome and Nibali, but it is hard to see anyone winning the race at this point. Perhaps if one of the outsiders takes a big step forward in 2014 then it will be different, someone like Rui Costa, Tejay van Garderen or Bauke Mollema, but it’s a long shot.

 

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2014 Team Preview – Belkin Pro Cycling Team

As Belkin Pro Cycling prepare to open their first full season, they still bear a striking similarity to the Rabobank team they’ve replaced, via a brief stint as Blanco. The latest title sponsor is American, but the team remains registered in the Netherlands, and the riding staff is still largely Dutch. The roster contains several strong GC riders who should continue to be the focus for Belkin in the Grand Tours. Bauke Mollema had a terrific 2013; establishing himself as a legitimate Grand Tour rider and a team leader. Mollema had shown that potential before, first when winning the Tour de L’Avenir in 2007, then again when finishing 4th in the Vuelta in 2011, but he was less prominent in the Grand Tours the following season. Mollema was something of a revelation in the 2013 Tour de France, rising as high as 2nd overall before fading to finish 6th. He climbs well, and with a little more power than most, which in turn makes him a strong time trialist and quite a fast finisher. That stage win threat was evident with victories in the Vuelta, and Tour de Suisse. In the Vuelta he sneaked away from some faster finishers in the final kilometres to steal it from them, in Switzerland he attacked inside the final 1km of a mountain finish to take the win. This year should see Mollema once again targeting the one week stage races and the Ardennes Classics, before a return to the Tour de France. However Mollema will not be the sole leader there, instead he looks set to share the leadership with Robert Gesink. Though Gesink is only six months older than Mollema, his star rose much faster, and he was long regarded as a future Grand Tour contender. Gesink finished 7th on his Grand Tour debut, the 2008 Vuelta, then followed that up with 6th the following year, having crashed out of his first Tour de France in between. In 2010 Gesink returned to the Tour and finished 5th overall, his best Grand Tour result to date and one he hasn’t threatened to repeat, instead his career has been beset with problems. Those problems have come in two forms, he either crashes and loses time or gets injured, or he inexplicably struggles and loses time on a stage when race hits the high mountains, terrain he normally suits. In 2013 the team moved away from putting their Tour de France hopes on Gesink’s shoulders, instead he rode the Giro before traveling to France, first as a free rider, then as a strong domestique for Mollema. This season Gesink should return to the Tour with the GC on his mind, despite his tenure as a Grand Tour rider, he is still only 27 and should only now be approaching his peak years.

Laurens ten Dam, 33, was hugely impressive alongside Mollema in the 2013 Tour, finishing 13th overall, and having entered the final week in 5th place. It followed on from his 8th place finish at the Vuelta the previous season, both somewhat surprising results from a rider who had always seemed more of a strong domestique than a contender. He is currently expected to return to the Tour is support of Mollema and Gesink, but I suspect he will get his chance to ride for himself at some point in the season. Potentially in one of the shorter stage races earlier in the season, or perhaps as leader at the Vuelta. Wilco Kelderman at just 22 is at the opposite end of the spectrum. A young GC rider of considerable promise, he will return to the Giro as the designated leader. Kelderman finished 17th on his Grand Tour debut at the Giro in 2013, where he rode primarily as a domestique for Gesink, before riding for himself in the final week. Kelderman is a very good time trialist and an improving climber; that talent against the clock earned him his biggest win so far, the 2013 Tour of Denmark. The team isn’t short of experienced climbing domestiques who can support their various GC ambitions. Old warhorses Bram Tankink and Juan Manuel Garate, Steven Kruijswijk, 8th overall in the 2011 Giro, and Stef Clements, who can time trial well. While Lars Petter Nordhaug and new signing Jonathan Hivert, are more puncheurs than true climbers.

Sep Vanmarcke came close to achieving Classics glory for the team in 2013, when he finished 2nd in Paris-Roubaix. Vanmarcke possesses the strongman semi-sprinter style that suits the Cobbled Classics, and his results have been gradually improving. Vanmarcke was 2nd in Gent-Wevelgem in 2010, 4th at E3 Harelbek in 2011, winner of Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in 2012, prior to being runner-up in Paris-Roubaix. Alongside Vanmarcke will be Lars Boom, a strong all-rounder and a good Classics rider, as his cyclo-cross background would suggest. Boom was 6th at Paris-Roubaix in 2012, and finished inside the top 15 in both 2013 and 2011. Boom is also a fine time trialist which has brought him stage and overall race victories.  Those two along with Maarten Wynants and Maarten Tjallingii, will be at the heart of Belkins Cobbled Classics.

The sprinters of the future

Although Theo Bos is likely to remain the team’s principle sprinter for now, the team has a pair of talented young Dutch sprinters, in Barry Markus and Moreno Hofland, who should surpass him in time. A multiple World Champion on the track, Bos came late to road cycling and has struggled to convert his terrific power and speed into major wins. When Bos gets it right he can beat anyone, but it just doesn’t happen often enough; while his limitations as a climber have made it difficult for him to compete in the Grand Tours. Barry Markus, 22, enters his 3rd season on the World Tour still searching for his first win, but there is no denying the talent. Last season Markus had three podium finishes at the Tour of Qatar, losing out to Mark Cavendish each time, he also finished 3rd, behind Marcel Kittel and Cavendish at Scheldeprijs. Hofland, 22, finished his neo-pro season in some style, winning three stages and taking the overall victory at the Tour of Hainan. While the competition wasn’t great, he will carry the confidence from those results into 2014. Paul Martens is more of an opportunistic sprinter, the veteran German tends to come to the fore when the run in is hilly. Bos et al can expect strong support from lesser sprinters like Robert Wagner, Tom Leezer, David Tanner, Graeme Brown, and Jetse Bol, with Wagner and Brown capable of taking the sprinter role in some races.

2014 outlook

The success or failure of Belkin’s season will mostly ride on their Grand Tour performances. They will hope for one of Mollema or Gesink to finish in the top 5 at the Tour de France, and Kelderman would love to win the White Jersey at the Giro d’Italia. The team will also expect more wins in 2014, with Bos, Markus and Hofland all sure to be given opportunities and it’s likely that Vanmarcke will be in contention for at least one of the Classics.

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2013 Vuelta a Espana: The Final Report

I almost wasn’t going to write this, I am feeling a little Vuelta fatigue, having posted 27 articles about the race already. However having said I would write one it made sense to do so.

The General Classification

The winner of the 2013 Vuelta a Espana was Chris Horner (RadioShack-Leopard) and there is no denying that he was the strongest climber in the race. Horner was always prominent when the racing went uphill, he won stage 3, fulfilling his pre-race ambition of taking the a stage win and the Red Jersey early in the race. He won again on the extremely difficult Alto de Hazallanas, and was the highest finishing GC contender on both the Pena Cabarga and on L’Angliru. Horners’ excellent performances on those four stages proved crucial in the 2013 Vuelta a Espana, as did finished ahead of Vincenzo Nibali on stage 19.

I have watched cycling for many years, so like many other observers the level of Chris Horners’ performances raised a lot of doubts and skepticism in my mind. Scott O’Raw of the Eurosport Cycling Podcast articulated those concerns in this post http://velocast.cc/the-problem-with-chris-horner. There must be a certain amount of incredulity when a rider who is just shy of his 42nd birthday can become a Grand Tour winner for the first time, doing so after a lengthy injury layoff and after only one week of racing prior to the Vuelta adds fuel to the fire. That build up race, the Tour of Utah, saw Horner produce an excellent ride to win the penultimate stage and take the race lead, it also saw him lose it the next day when he was unable to reproduce the effort from the day before. A perfectly normal physiological response to a long injury layoff. I expected him to be stronger by the start of the Vuelta, he was certainly coming into the race with less fatigue than any of his rivals. However I really didn’t think he could sustain his performance for three weeks, not without more build up racing. I am not going to get into power data, climb times or anything else that has been speculated upon online, I’m not qualified to get into that properly and many others have already done so. Instead I go by what my eyes see and that has lead to the above concerns. Yet that is all they are, concerns, doubts, skepticism, they prove nothing and a rider should not be condemned based on those things alone. I do find it hard to be convinced by what I have seen over the last three weeks, but I have been wrong about many things in my life, so simply trusting my own judgement in matters such as this, isn’t enough. Chris Horners’ performances on the road certainly merited victory and justifiable skepticism aside, he should be able to enjoy that victory unless someone can prove it is unjust. It’s not as though Horners’ rivals produced their best in this race either, all came into the Vuelta having already completed another Grand Tour, none was in their ideal condition. Had they then the result might have been different, Horner could have finished 4th or 5th and would have been lauded for a great effort.

Giro d’Italia winner, and former Vuelta winner, Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) admitted his recovery from the Giro was less than ideal. Travel and sponsorship commitments meant he was out of shape when he began his program for the second half of the season. It’s also true that the Vuelta itself was not his target, though he did want to win it, rather he was aiming at the World Championship road race and the Giro di Lombaria which take place in the next 19 days. Even so, finishing 2nd, having already won the Giro makes 2013 a year to remember for Nibali. Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) and Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) finished 3rd and 4th respectively, each came into the race after a hard fought Tour de France and it showed, as they simply were not at their best. Valverde won the Green Jersey despite not winning a stage, the number of mountain finishes combined with the lack of a dominant sprint team made sure that one of the GC riders would win it. Given Valverdes’ surprising speed at the finish for a climber, he was always a likely contender. Rodriguez won the 19th stage, his 8th stage win in total in the Vuelta a Espana, but he couldn’t find his best form.

Nicholas Roche (Saxo-Tinkoff) also completed the Tour de France, but unlike Valverde and Rodriguez he definitely rode within himself in France, performing as a domestique, often working in the earlier parts of the stage before knocking off the effort. He came into the Vuelta in great shape, slimmer and full of confidence and it showed when he won the 2nd stage and later claimed the race lead for a day. It was a bravura performance from the Irishman, a race full of attacking intent and his reward was his highest ever finish in a Grand Tour. Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R) finished 6th after being caught out by the wind on stage 17, he climbed superbly throughout and produced a surprisingly good ITT performance to keep himself firmly in contention. Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) finished 7th overall, a strong ride from the young Frenchman and a good response to his problems at the Tour de France, like Roche he rode aggressively, even daring to attack on a descent, if he can really sort that out then his future remains very bright. Finally I want to mention the unfortunate Ivan Basso (Cannondale), 2013 has not been kind to the veteran Italian, he was going superbly in this race before the changing weather conditions caught him out, had they not then he would have been a factor in the GC competition.

 

The stage winners

If there was a key to picking the stage winners in this Vuelta, it was to expect the unexpected. In a race with so many uphill finishes, it was always likely that the GC riders would feature prominantly amongst the stage winners. I have already mentioned that Horner won two stages, and Rodriguez and Roche won one apiece. Of the other GC contenders Dani Moreno (Katusha) twice, and Leopold Konig (NetApp-Endura) also won uphill finishes. Moreno has had a strong season, winning La Fleche Wallonne, riding strongly in suport of Purito in the Tour and again here at the Vuelta. He started this race in terrific form before, putting aside personal ambitions to once again work superbly for Rodriguez. Konig had a superb race for NetApp-Endura, riding aggressively in the opening week before winning on the Alto de Penas Blancas, finally finishing 9th overall. It could have been even better had he not suffered briefly from illness and losing some time as a result, but it was a great Grand Tour debut from the Czech rider, we can expect to see much more of him in the future.

Mountain finishes are hard to call in general, you have to factor in how big the break was, who was in the break, what gap did the break have, when did the GC race behind light up etc. In this race the breaks were eventually given a lot of leeway, seven of the final nine stages were won by a member of the break. Two of those were Alexandre Geniez (FDJ) and Vasil Kiryienka (Sky Procycling), both riders were part of large breakaway groups which splintered as the stages progressed. Each also rode away from their companions with considerable distance still to race, holding off the chasing riders and sealing terrific victories. Geniez earned his win with a brilliant and insane descent, distancing the more sensible Andre Cardoso (Caja Rural), Kiryienka took his by riding away from the break and settling himself into a metronomic rhythm all the way the the finish. Fabian Cancellara (RadioShack-Leopard) took the ITT on stage 11, finishing ahead of Tony Martin (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) and potentially gaining a small psychological advantage ahead of a potential clash in the World ITT Championship next week.

There were few sprint stages in this race, and most of those came with some sort of trap which made it harder to bring about the bunch sprint. Given the parcours, few teams brought orthodox sprinters, opting instead for more opportunistic fast men. Those teams were also less committed to the sprints, bringing more versatile squads instead, sacrificing the power and strength necessary to chase down the breaks and drive the peloton to the line. The end result was an almost complete absence of full-on bunch sprints, and a lack of control as the peloton approached the line. A perfect example came on stage 6, when Michael Morkov (Saxo-Tinkoff) took the win from a reduced and tired field of sprinters. Things were under control with 16km to go, Tony Martin was dangling 20 seconds ahead of the peloton and the sprint teams were happy, then Martin raised the pace and the chase was on. Over the next 15km it was all the sprint teams could do to keep Martin within 50m, using up all their support riders in the process. When the sprint came, it came from far out and with the strong men to the fore, rather than the fast ones, Morkov showed great instincts to follow Cancellara then spring out for the win. He doesn’t rank highly among the fastest finishers in the world, but when there is a lack of control sometimes being smart is the path to victory. Zdenek Stybar (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) and Philippe Gilbert (BMC) also trumped the sprinters, taking superb wins on days when the sprinters were expected to shine. Stybar earned his win after he and Gilbert had jumped clear of the peloton, the final 5km of the race were very technical and the sprint teams foolishly let the two escapees reach that point with a small advantage. From there the Stybar and Gilbert rode too well to be caught, with Sybar being the fastest at the finish, taking his first Grand Tour win and adding to his burgeoning reputation. Gilbert won later in the race, the sprint was on an uphill drag and he showed he was hitting his best form by storming past Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky Procycling) for the win, his first while wearing the Rainbow Jersey. Bauke Mollema (Belkin) rescued his teams Vuelta with a highly unlikely win on the stage into Burgos. The peloton had been much reduced by the winds on the road to Burgos, however they reached the finish with a number of fast finishers, Farrar, Richeze, Bole and Boasson Hagen were there. Yet none of those fast riders took up the race in the final 1km, allowing Mollema to steal away for the win. He is fast on the line for a climber, but definitely outmatched in that company, another victory for tactical nous and the spirit of attack.

There were of course other stage winners but they fit better in the next category.

 

Young riders come to the fore

One of my race previews featured the young riders to watch out for in this race. It came with the proviso that many were here more for experience, riders for the future rather than the here and now, some of course did diddly squat, but others shone. Warren Barguil (Argos-Shimano) and Kenny Elissonde (FDJ) are gifted young French climbers who showed their potential when winning stages in this Vuelta. Barguil won two stages, finished in the top 10 on two other uphill finishesand generally won over the cycling public with his attacking style, a magnificent performance from a 21 year old riding his first ever Grand Tour. Elissonde, 22, only had the one stand out day in the Vuelta, it just happened to come on the most difficult and iconic of all, winning on L’Angliru is a landmark victory for any climber, never mind one riding his first Grand Tour. Daniele Ratto (Cannondale) has been making a name for himself as an opportunistic sprinter, one for the uphill sprints, and the tough run ins. A good climber for a fast man but not a likely candidate to win a mountain top finish like he did here, taking victory from a break, atop the Coll de la Gallina and in awful weather. It was a terrific victory.

I felt silly talking about the sprints earlier and leaving out the most impressive sprinter in the field, Michael Matthews (Orica GreenEDGE). The 22 year old won the two bunch sprints that featured in the race, and did so with some ease, clearly the fastest sprinter in this race. A year ago I would have labelled Matthews more of an opportunistic sprinter than a true fast man, but he has impressed me as a sprinter in the last six weeks, showing an impressive burst of speed as well as the strength to hold it. 2014 will be a big year for him as he should get the chance to compete against the elite sprinters at some point and we can see just how competitive he can be. He certainly had the backing of his team here, Orica-GreenEDGE worked hard whenever there was the possibility of a sprint finish, Christian Meier in particular was busy on the front of the peloton.

 

Wild card teams impress

Al three wild card teams did themselves proud in this Vuelta. NetApp-Endura must take the largest plaudits, Leopold Konig starred, and when he struggled Jose Medes was there to nurse him through to the end of the stage. Bartosz Huzarski and Jose Mendes were aggressive in the mountains and several times in the race the team as a whole came to the fore on the front of the peloton. Nicolas Edet was the star for Cofidis, winning the KoM jersey through aggressively getting into breaks. Caja Rural lacked the tangible success of the other two, and will have been disappointed that David Arroyo couldn’t finish in the top 10, but they certainly got themselves noticed. No team was more active in the breaks than Caja Rural, Javier Aramendia, Andre Cardoso, Amets Txurruka and Antonio Piedra were particularly aggressive.

 

The disappointments

Perhaps the biggest disappointment for many cycling fans is that this was the last Vuelta for the Euskaltel-Euskadi team. Thankfully the team is in the process of being bought replaced by another Spanish team, formed by Fernando Alonso, but they won’t be Basque and there will be no more carrots in the peloton. It’s a pity that they didn’t manage a more memorable final Vuelta, no stage wins and their best finisher was Samuel Sanchez who was 8th overall. They were active though, particularly in the mountains where Igor Anton and Egoi Martinez were particularly strong.

Lampre-Merida failed to win a stage or achieve anything of note in the GC, however between Maximiliano Richeze, Diego Ulissi and Michele Scarponi they had six podium finishes. It comes after a similarly winless Tour de France, though they certainly went closer to landing a big result in this race. Similarly Garmin-Sharp failed to achieve any memorable results, they were seriously hampered when GC contender and potential stage winner, Dan Martin, crashed out of the race. However Tyler Farrar did finish the race and must be disappointed with his performances, coming 2nd on the final stage was respectable, but he had more speed than almost all the other sprinters in this race. With the way the team is morphing into a more GC oriented team, failing to win here won’t help him make future Grand Tour squads.

Neither Lotto Belisol nor Vacansoleil-DCM managed to achieve anything of note, though both teams saw their chances of doing so devastated by withdrawals. Lotto Belisol had only four finishers, their chances of success virtually disappearing when Bart de Clercq crashed out, prior to that De Clercq had been climbing with the favorites and looked good. Their best result came through Adam Hansen when he was one of the final survivors from the break, finishing 3rd on the climb of Pena Cabarga. Vacansoleil had even worse luck, with just three riders finishing the race. Juan Antonio Flecha was easily their most impressive performer, seemingly trying to roll back the years with attacks on almost every stage.

Vasil Kiryienka saved the race for Sky Procycling, their two Colombian climbers Sergio Henao and Rigoberto Uran, had been expected to feature as GC riders but just didn’t deliver. I am a big fan of both but they weren’t at their best.

 

Overall I think this was an enjoyable Vuelta, the GC race went right down to the last big stage, and it was a dramatic stage at that. This current formula they seem to use definitely creates some interesting finishes, with most of the action designed to happen towards the end of the race, when television pictures are live. If I have a gripe it’s the lack of variety, there were too many uphill finishes, particularly too many mountain finishes. I’m not arguing for more sprint stages, though another obvious sprint finish would likely have brought a different field of riders to the race. Instead I’d like more imagine finishes ,a descent to the line after a tough climb, a small uphill finish coming after a much bigger climb, with a nice descent in between. A substantial hill 25km from the finish, not enough to make it a GC only selection but favoring the opportunistic stage winners, use the winds more, basically just add more variety to the race. However that’s meant as constructive criticism rather than having a moan, I really enjoyed watching this Vuelta.

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2013 Vuelta a Espana: Notes From Stage Seventeen

Saxo-Tinkoff master the wind once again

On stage 13 of the Tour de France, the Saxo-Tinkoff team took advantage of the crosswinds to distance some of the other favorites, allowing Alberto Contador to gain 1:09 on his rivals. It was a brilliant attack and made for thrilling viewing. Fast forward two months, and Saxo-Tinkoff take advantage of the crosswinds to distance some of the other favorites, allowing Nicholas Roche to gain 1:31 on his nearest rivals. It was another excellent attack. Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R) and Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) were the best placed riders who lost out and now find themselves lagging well behind Roche. The move came with a little more than 30km to the finish, when the race was on the high plateau leading to Burgos, teams knew it was coming and still some riders were caught out.

Lampre-Merida blow it

The days break consisted of only two riders, Adam Hansen (Lotto Belisol) and Javier Aramendia (Caja Rural) and knowing their chances of success were nonexistent they set an easy pace for the first half of the race. Astana had no interest in chasing them down so it fell to whatever teams were interested in bringing the race to the expected bunch sprint, today that was Lampre-Merida. They received some help from Orica GreenEDGE, but the bulk of the work throughout the stage was done by Lampre-Merida. I thought it might be them, they need a stage win  and in Maximiliano Richeze have one of the most in-form fast men in the race. Moreover many of the other teams with sprinters are down to 4 or 5 riders, and simply lack the manpower to commit to a long chase. When the peloton split Orica GreenEDGE lost out, with their sprinters dropped by the peloton, yet Lampre made the move with Richeze and several team mates, it looked good. They had a free ride into the final 10km, where there was a short and steep hill which was the launch pad for an attack by Lampre’s Diego Ulissi. He gained a handful of seconds and stayed ahead for a few kms, once caught other riders launched attacks and Lampre were a team that helped shut those attacks down, keeping Richeze to the front at the same time. In the final 2.5km no team wanted to take it up, Lampre, Garmin, Saxo-Tinkoff and Sky all found themselves on the front for brief spells, but they always wanted someone else to take over. It continued into the final 1km and Bauke Mollema (Belkin) used this indecisiveness to launch a solo attack, nobody followed or gave chase. The sprinters were too busy looking at each other, waiting for someone else to give chase so that they could follow them, that they forgot to catch Mollema, letting him roll over the line unopposed and leaving themselves red faced. It was an audacious victory for Mollema, he is a fast finisher for a climber but he was definitely outmatched in that company, they knew that as well and clearly dismissed his threat. It was great for the 4-man Belkin team, having lost their stage winner, Theo Bos, before the race began, and having seen their GC challenge fall apart, they badly need a stage win to save their Vuelta. I singled out Lampre-Merida for criticism, because they worked all day just to waste the opportunity at the end of the stage. It would be disappointing but understandable if Richeze had lost out to Farrar or Boasson Hagen in a sprint, but to waste the chance while waiting for someone else to make the first move, that just it wasn’t good enough. Of course the same is true for Sky and Garmin-Sharp, both teams need that stage win as well, and both had their fastest finishers well placed to go for the win. However neither of them spent the day sitting on the front of the peloton just to watch someone else ride away to victory.

Looking ahead to stage eighteen

Stage 18: Burgos – Pena Cabarga
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The stage starts on the same high plateau that stage seventeen finished upon, winds might once again be strong but I can’t imagine any team will force the issue there, not with an entire stage to follow. The parcours gets progressively harder with each climb being harder than the last, before it climaxes with the Pena Cabarga. First is the Alto de Bocos, 3km and 6.6%, then the Alto Estacas de Trueba, 10.9km at 3.2%, then things start to get more serious with 65km to go when they reach the Puerto de la Braguia. It’s 6.1km at 6.3% and probably too far out for any attack to be launched, but it will certainly help thin out the peloton. Next is the Alto del Caracol, 10.6km at 5.6%, a climb that has caused real problems for riders in the past. The stage finishes with the Pena Cabarga, 5.9km at 9.2% and ramps much steeper than that, it’s a very tough climb and if any rider is struggling they could lose significant chunks of time. With 1km to go the slope reaches 20% before easing towards the finish line. It will be tough and it could be explosive, provided the GC riders go for it. The two most recent winners on the climb were Chris Froome and Joaquim Rodriguez, it’s a stage where the elite climbers can come to the fore.

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2013 Vuelta a Espana: Notes From Stage Thirteen

The break succeeds

Despite taking an age to escape the peloton, and failing to ever establish a large time gap, the break was able to stay clear and contest the stage win. It took about 70km for an 18 man break away to form, prior to that the racing had been faced paced and frantic as most teams attempted to get into the successful break. They had a lead of around 3:00 when it reached the Alto del Rat Penat, however strong riding by Michele Scarponi (Lampre-Merida) on the climb split them up and when some came back together on the descent it was down to 10 riders. Behind them Katusha had set a punishing pace on the climb, blowing the peloton apart and putting a lot of good riders under real pressure, including their own Dani Moreno. After the climb the peloton took a while to regroup and get organized, allowing some riders to rejoin them, though it was still only a 31 man peloton by the time it crossed the line. Ahead of them the 10 man break worked well and as it became increasingly clear they would fight for the stage win, they worked out which tactics suited them best. With a little under 8km to go, Jerome Coppel (Cofidis) and Egoi Martinez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) decided to go for a long attack, they were soon joined by Scarponi, all three believing their best chance came from riding away from the rest of the break. Bauke Mollema (Belkin) and Rinaldo Nocentini (AG2R) were the two likely winners if they all came to the end together. So it was they, along with Zabier Xandio (Sky Procycling) who worked hardest to bring the three leaders back, succeeding in doing so at the 2km to go mark. Coppel immediately attacked again, this time followed by Xandio, Nocentini and Warren Barguil (Argos-Shimano), once again they were caught but at the same time Barguil launched a solo attack. Perhaps he was underestimated, perhaps his companions were tired and hoping someone else would take up the chase, but either way they hesitated and that hesitation let Barguil build up a winning advantage. For Barguil there was no sense of hesitation or doubt, he simply went full throttle and landed a terrific victory. The 21 year old climber has a potentially glittering future, he has certainly looked the part throughout this race.

 

Looking ahead to stage fourteen, the race reaches the Pyrenees

Stage 14: Baga – Andorra
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The stage should see a rapid start, the opening 40km are downhill and a lot of riders will hope to make the break, KoM contenders in particular. At the 60km mark the riders face the Port de Envalira, an absolute brute of a climb at 26.7km, 5.2% with ramps up to 15%. The climb actually comes after a 20km uphill drag and at 2,410m is the highest point of this years race. It is followed by two more categorized climbs before the peloton reaches the final climb, the Collada de la Gallina, 7.2km long, 8% average gradient with a maximum of 15%. It made it’s debut in last years race and Alejandro Valverde won, beating Alberto Contador and Joaquim Rodriguez to the line. We can expect fireworks tomorrow, the Port de Envalira should provide a large initial selection and the final climb should see a battle between the top GC riders. There could be huge time differences on this stage, anyone who has a bad day has lost the race.

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2013 Vuelta a Espana: Notes From Stage Three

The break had no chance today

As usual a break went away early, and like yesterday it was a break Astana were happy to let go. The riders were Pablo Urtasun (Euskaltel-Euskadi), Vicente Reynes (Lotto Belisol), Cyril Bessy (Cofidis), Luca Dodi (Lampre-Merida) and Fabricio Ferrari (Caja Rural). While Astana were happy to let them have their day ahead, others were not, Omega Pharma-Quick Step came to the front when the gap reached 6:00, they were joined by BMC a little later, both teams clearly having ideas about the finish. They closed the break ruthlessly, perhaps even a little too early, as the peloton had to ease up to avoid catching the break with about 60km to go. That’s when the problems started.

 

Crashes and crosswinds cause carnage in the peloton

With the peloton easing up to avoid catching the break, riders started to relax which is very dangerous. The first crash came soon after, as they came to a corner, wheels touched and riders from several teams went down. No one seemed to be badly hurt, though some of the Caja Rural and Sky Procycling riders landed heavily. Poor Sergio Henao was caught up in it, a day after the hunger knock had caused him to lose unnecessary time, a harsh lesson for him. A little later, with about 40km left and when the peloton was together again, the race turned and the crosswinds appeared. The pace went up as Katusha came to the front, then at a tight corner there was another touching of wheels, a lot of riders either went down, or were held up by the crash. They included Belkin’s Bauke Mollema, Euskaltel’s Mikel Nieve and AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo. Movistar swiftly joined Katusha at the front, with bad memories from the Tour de France as a little extra motivation, RadioShack were prominent as well. The high pace was eventually lifted for a while, and some of the trailing riders were able to get back onto the peloton, though by then the break had been caught. As the peloton approached the climb at the finish, the pace started ratcheting up again as a number of teams wanted to move their big riders to the front. Movistar, Cannondale, Astana and Orica GreenEDGE were all to the fore. Unfortunately David Arroyo (Caja Rural) had been off the back of the peloton seeking medical treatment, he was unable to rejoin before the pace went up and struggled gamely to try and get back in an effort to minimize his losses.

 

Chris Horner takes the Red Jersey

On the final climb a number of riders launched attacks, with Juan Antonio Flecha (Vacansoleil-DCM) the first to go. Ivan Sanaromita (BMC) countered, passed Flecha and looked to establish a good gap, but a number of riders went after him, including RadioShack-Leopard’s Chris Horner. Horner caught and passed Santaromita and never looked back, going on to take the win and the race lead. Taking the Red Jersey had been an early race target for him, he had mentioned trying to get it on yesterdays stage. Horner came into this race with very little racing in his legs this season, injury had forced Horner off the bike for months. Having returned to racing at the Tour of Utah, he knew he came into this race fitter and fresher than the riders who had been to the Tour de France. It was a clever gambit from the 41 year old, he is riding well now but whether he will be able to sustain that through a three week race is debatable, given how little he has raced. He faded in the Tour of Utah and it’s certainly possible he runs out of strength towards the end of this race, so a stint in Red now will make this a race to remember. Behind Horner there were small gaps throughout the chasing peloton, that resulted in a lot of riders taking small time losses at the line. Of the likely challengers, the worst hit was Arroyo as he came in 1:11 down on Horner.

 

What can we expect tomorrow?

Stage 4: Lalín – Fisterra

Stage four is much bumpier than the previous three stages, there will be little flat riding for the peloton despite an absence of major climbs. The finish at Fisterra is an uphill sprint, the final 2km ramp upwards but it’s not steep, none of the sprinters who can climb a bit will struggle with the finish. However to get there the peloton will have to climb the Mirador de Ezaro, 36km from the finish. It’s listed at 1.9km and 13.1%, and it will be selective. It’s possible things come back together afterwards but not if the pace is high in front, which it likely will be if anyone significant has dropped behind. It could also be a great platform for an attacking rider to spring clear of the peloton.

 

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2013 Vuelta a Espana Preview Two: The Main Contenders

It is hard to breakdown the riders involved in the 2013 Vuelta a Espana at this time because teams have yet to finalize their rosters. It is also hard to assess which riders are here to race for the Overall Classification and which have another agenda. Some are building form for the World Championships, this being a year where a climber has a legitimate shot at becoming the World Road Race Champion, makes that a prime target for many riders and the tough Vuelta course is an excellent preparation for it. Of course the two are not mutually exclusive goals, the Worlds race comes two weeks after after the Vuelta, but peaking too early and carrying too much fatigue is a concern. Riders who are aiming for the Worlds may choose to hold back a little, picking some stages to target for a stage win but making sure they don’t overdo it. Others will aim to peak for the decisive final week knowing they can carry that form through to the World Championships, provided they are still in the GC race at that point there is no reason to avoid competing. Many riders are coming out of breaks and working their way towards fitness, while some are trying to recover from racing in the Tour de France and may have to contend with accumulated fatigue. All in all predicting which riders are likely to excel in the Vuelta is a tricky affair. However we do know who the main contenders are likely to be so it makes sense to start this series of rider previews with them. Once the lineups are more complete I will publish further rider previews.

The 2013 Vuelta a Espana is loaded with uphill finishes, anything from short uphill sprints to extremely difficult mountain top finishes. You can find the stage profiles here http://www.lavuelta.com and I have a preview of those stages here https://procyclingkev.wordpress.com/2013/08/05/vuelta-a-espana-preview-one-stage-by-stage/. The number of uphill finishes and the fact the sole individual time trial stage features climbing, combine to create the ideal course for a pure climber. The only problem stage for the climbers is the opening one with the 27.4km team time trial, however most of the main contenders will have strong teams who can minimize the time they lose on that stage. There are a couple of stages where the race may encounter crosswinds which raises the possibility of echelons splitting the peloton but that is unpredictable. Although GC riders need to be vigilant for danger every day, the  2013 Vuelta a Espana is back loaded, with most of the likely significant days in the second half of the race. The opening TTT is followed by the first mountain top finish of the race, it’s not a tough one compared with the stages ahead but it should combine with the TTT to create some early time gaps in the GC race and leave some riders seeking ways to make up time lost. The next likely significant GC day comes on stage eight with the long climb up the Alto de Penas Blancas, there are some finishes in between where riders can attack the peloton but no significant time gaps would be expected. With riders hoping to combine the Vuelta with the Worlds, and possibly the Giro di Lombardia a week after that, many will hope to use the first 8-9 days to get into form without losing much time. However they had better be ready by the time the race gets to stage ten, the Alto Hazallanas is not for the faint hearted. Any rider who is far from their best is going to lose a lot of time on it, from this point the GC race is properly on.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez – Katusha

It’s not much of an exaggeration to suggest that Joaquim Rodriguez will never have a better chance to finally win a Grand Tour. He is now 34, has finished on the podium of all three Grand Tours, won stages at all three as well, he has won a monument (Giro di Lombardia), and won in the Ardennes (La Fleche Wallonne). Adding to his palmares with victory in the Vuelta would almost make his career complete. Purito has always been a pure climber, at his best on the steep sections where he can kick away from his heavier rivals. In the past he has always been let down by his time trialing, he has improved over time but it remains a weakness, unless of course it involves climbing. If Rodriguez was to design his ideal stage race, I suspect the parcours would have many uphill finishes and a mountainous ITT, just like the 2013 Vuelta.

Joaquim Rodriguez started the Tour de France a little out of sorts, but he had timed it so he would peak towards the end of the race. That final week form let him claw his way onto the podium, if he can find that form again in the Vuelta he stands a great chance of winning. The one worry must be fatigue after racing a tough Tour de France. It isn’t easy to finish three tough weeks of racing and be ready to reprise that effort five weeks later. It often catches a rider out in the final week of the second tour when accumulated fatigue just saps the legs right when the going gets toughest. He won’t have raced at all in the period in between in an effort to recover and avoid that slump during the Vuelta. Of course that could mean he isn’t at his best at the start but that’s alright, so long as he is getting close to his best after the first 8-9 stages.

 

Alejandro Valverde – Movistar

The 2009 winner, Alejandro Valverde was also 2nd overall in 2012 and is well suited to the parcours. A very strong climber with a surprisingly fast finish for a climber, Valverde is also a strong time trialist, though he can be distanced by the elite climbers on the toughest climbs. 2013 hasn’t been a banner year for Valverde, his form has been good enough but he hasn’t been able to land the big results. 2nd in the Amstel Gold Race, 3rd in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 2nd again in the Classica Ciclista San Sebastian. He was looking strong at the Tour de France but misfortune and a questionable decision left him 10 minutes adrift in the winds of stage thirteen and the race was beyond him, though he still finished 8th overall. Once out of contention, Valverde alternated between supporting Nairo Quintana and seeking a chance to pursue a stage win, though he never came close than 3rd. Valverde clearly has talent to contest the overall victory here but he may find it hard to recover from his exertions at the Tour, his legs could well be hampered by fatigue in the final week. Between the Tour and the Vuelta his only race will have been that one day in San Sebastian, it will help with the fatigue but may see him undercooked for the Vuelta.

Alejandro Valverde does have a great skill set for this years World Championship race and it has been suggested that he might hold back in the Vuelta, pick some stages to try and win and work towards the World Championships rather than putting everything into winning the Vuelta. He won two stages in 2012, taking his total to 7 stage wins in the Vuelta and it also netted him the Points Jersey. With so many finishes that suit him he should be one of the favorites to win stages in this race, regardless of whether or not he is riding for the GC. The Movistar squad will have potential alternative GC riders so it is a possibility, though Valverde has been named as team captain and I suspect that he will he will be there to win. It’s possible they will let his form dictate it, in which case, if he is still in close contention after stage, ten then he rides for the GC.

 

Vincenzo Nibali – Astana

The 2010 winner, Vincenzo Nibali comes to the Vuelta while enjoying his greatest season as a cyclist. His Giro d’Italia victory was a tour de force, he was simply dominant and a very deserving winner. That performance was on a similar level to Chris Froome’s at the Tour de France, their expected clash in the 2014 Tour is something to look forward to. He had shown his form beforehand, winning at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Giro del Trentino. He is another superb climber, when on form he can give 2-3 good hard kicks on the climbs, he does like to attack and is a terrific descender. He can also be a strong enough time trialist, and can dominate when it’s not a flat course, he will be a favorite on stage 11.

Nibali has admitted that sponsorship commitments meant he didn’t get as much structured rest and training after the Giro as he would have liked. As a result he arrived at the Tour of Poland a little behind in his preparations, he will have been happy with the difficult course then as it helped get him into condition. He looked stronger at the Vuelta a Burgos, where he contended for the win right up until the final 2km at which point he couldn’t follow Quintana and struggled home almost 50 seconds down. Not ideal perhaps but it was much better than he had looked in Poland and he has the time to find his best for the second half of the Vuelta. After the Giro Nibali immediately began preparing for the World Championships on home soil, it’s his priority for the 2nd half of the season and it could affect his motivation at the Vuelta if he is struggling at all by the mid way point. However peaking for the final week will give him excellent form for the Worlds so I don’t see any real issue. Although he has already completed a Grand Tour this year, the fact that the Giro finished in May and he has had time to recover from that, should make fatigue less of a factor than it is for those coming from the Tour.

 

Samuel Sanchez – Euskaltel-Euskadi

Samuel Sanchez has spent a career riding for the Basque Euskaltel-Euskadi, with their expected demise this represents his final chance to win the Vuelta in their colors. At 35, and facing a search for a new team, it may well be his final chance to win it altogether. A former Olympic Champion, Sanchez has always been a gifted and attacking rider on punchy climbs and he is another terrific descender who doesn’t hesitate to use that to his advantage. While the course is good for him his form may not b equal to the task. He hasn’t been at his best in 2013, he was off the pace in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco and struggled in the Giro where he was only able to finish 12th, though his form was improving towards the end. He did win a stage in the Criterium du Dauphine when he and Jacob Fuglsang went away on the penultimate climb and contested the win, a victory which should both his tactical nous and his ability to look like he was suffering. He returned from a two month break at the Vuelta a Burgos and was again a little off the pace, though that would be expected in his first race back. He has been doing a lot of altitude training and will hope to use the first week of the Vuelta to find his racing legs ahead of the crucial stages. I think he may be included in the list of favorites more on hope than genuine expectation, but if he finds his form he will be fresher than some of his rivals. He could pull off a surprise.

 

Bauke Mollema – Belkin Pro Cycling

For many in cycling, Bauke Mollema appeared to have something of a coming out party at the Tour de France, where he had ridden into a podium place before fading at the end. It was revealed after the race the he had been suffering a little with illness in the last week. It was a continuation of the form he had shown in the Tour de Suisse, where he finished 2nd, and in many ways it was only a surprise because he had always played second fiddle to Robert Gesink. Mollema was free to ride for himself in the Vuelta in 2011 and finished 4th, giving a glimpse of his potential and giving him a fondness for the race. He was always a strong all round performer but he has taken his climbing to another level in 2013, even so I think he could struggle a little on some of the toughest mountain finishes, the lack of a flatter ITT also harms his chances as he would be expected to beat most of his GC rivals on a flatter course. The course may not be in his favor, and he may feel the effects of fatigue, having raced the Tour de France, but his performance there will have his self belief sky high right now and that can compensate a little.

 

Ivan Basso – Cannondale

Ivan Basso is a double Giro winner, 2006 and 2010, but has only competed in the Vuelta once before, finishing 4th in 2009. At 35, and having shown signs of decline in the last two seasons, I’d believed the days of Ivan Basso as a Grand Tour contender were in the past. It certainly seemed that way early in 2013 as he was really struggling to find form prior to the Giro. However he developed a cyst and had to withdraw from the Cannondale squad prior to the start, and was then left out of the Tour de France squad. It gave him an enforced break from training and racing and it seems to have let him finally find some form as he builds up for the Vuelta. In the Tour de Pologne, he was there or there abouts on the toughest climbs in the Dolomites, it was a positive sign. He followed that up with a more impressive performance on the final day of the Vuelta a Burgos, which featured a finish atop the tough Lagunas de Neila. On the climb Basso was able to follow the moves when Nibali, Quintana and David Arroyo went up the road. Inside the final 2 km, Arroyo attacked, Nibali and Quintana countered but Basso was unable to follow, instead he simply set his own pace and powered his way to the finish, passing Nibali and catching Arroyo. It was a very encouraging sign for Basso and his best performance of 2013 so far. Basso is another gifted climber, but unlike most of those already mentioned, he isn’t an explosive one. Instead he is best setting a high pace he is comfortable with and working his way up the climbs. It’s hard to believe that Ivan Basso really is going to roll back the years but he does have one big advantage over the other contenders, he hasn’t competed in a Grand Tour this year. He will be the freshest of all of the competitors and is already showing good form.

 

Sergio Henao – Sky Procycling

It seems you can’t have a Grand Tour race without a Sky rider contending, this time it’s Sergio Henao’s turn. The 25 year old Colombian will go to the Vuelta as team leader, with his compatriot Rigoberto Uran there in support, both riders will have an eye on the World Championships that follow. Henao is an excellent climber, he is at his best on the steeper climbs, as he showed in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco, while winning a stage with a 20% incline at the finish. He showed good form early in 2013, finishing 3rd overall in that race and 2nd in La Fleche Wallonne, he also looked very strong at the start of the Giro but ran out of form half way through. I had the impression that he wasn’t originally scheduled to ride there, but had been added to the team at short notice. Henao finished 14th in the 2012 Vuelta where he was riding in support of Chris Froome, however this time he gets the chance to ride for himself. It will be a good experience for him and with a parcours well suited to him, he is a potential stage winner and a podium contender. Henao had a two month break after the Giro, returning at the Tour de Pologne, where he looked good but with work to do to get his form right. His legs will certainly be fresher than they were in the Giro and he could well be a contender for the overall victory.

 

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