If all goes to plan, the field of riders taking part in the Grand Depart of 101st edition of the Tour de France, will include Chris Froome and Vincenzo Nibali in the form of their lives, and ready to go head to head for the greatest prize in cycling. Of course there are 174 days before the peloton lines up in Leeds and an awful lot can happen before then, but it is to be hoped that the two most impressive stage race riders will be there to contest the Tour in 2014.
This year’s Tour starts with two stages in Yorkshire, makes its way down to London then into Northern France. The race doesn’t reach the truly high mountains until almost two weeks have passed when they hit the Alps, but those final nine stages will surely be the decisive stretch of the race. However the full race profiles aren’t available yet, and there are sure to be traps or surprises along the way, such as a 2nd stage into Sheffield full of short sharp climbs. The steepest of those comes with just 5km to go, it is only 800m long but with a gradient of up to 33% and being close to the finish, it should be a launch pad for stage victory and potentially an early GC skirmish. Stage 5 from Ypres to Arenberg, an area of battlegrounds from the First World War, and includes a number of the cobbled sections used in Paris-Roubaix. It isn’t a day that suits the GC riders but it could still prove pivotal, with crashes and punctures likely the contenders will just hope to avoid losing the race there; a strong team will be desirable. Stages 8-10 take place in the Vosges, offering the first serious climbs in the race and two tough uphill finishes. The finish La Planche des Belles Filles, on stage 10, is 5.9km at 8.5% and steepest at the summit, it’s more than tough enough to force the contenders to show their form; with a rest day to follow we should expect fireworks. The riders reach the Alps and two more summit finishes on stages 13 and 14, with climbs to the Chamrousse and Risoul ski resorts, respectively. After that there is a transition stage and rest day before they reach the Pyrenees. Stage 16 finishes with the climb of the tough Port de Bales and the fast descent into Bagneres-du-Luchon, while stages 17 and 18 are short stages with lots of climbing. If the race is still tight at this point, then stage 18 should be magnificent, as the riders climb the iconic Col du Tourmalet before reaching the final summit finish of the race at Hautacam. The sole time trial comes on stage 20, a 54km ITT that will be decisive if the GC is tight at that point, I’m not sure that the course for that has been released yet.
The Riders
Chris Froome – Team Sky: The defending champion was magnificent when winning the 100th edition of the Tour, climbing superbly throughout, crushing his rivals on Ax 3 Domaines and Mont Ventoux before fading slightly in the final week. He was at his very best on stage 9, a mountainous Pyrenean stage that saw Froome isolated and under attack, almost from the very start of the day. Froome proved his strength that day, answering and ultimately subduing the attacks from the Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff teams who had hoped to take advantage of Froome’s lack of support. Chris Froome isn’t just an elite climber, the 2013 race featured to 30km+ ITTs where he finished 2nd and 1st, gaining time over all the other GC contenders in the process. If Froome has a weakness then it’s his descending, it comes less naturally to him than to some of the other GC contenders. However he has improved a little over time and so long as he has one of his better descending team mates to follow, then it’s a very tough aspect to attack. Froome has also displayed some inexperience, which others may be able to take advantage of, the kerfuffle over the final energy bar on L’Alpe d’Huez is a good example. The same stage 9 that Froome excelled on also saw him needlessly chase down some early attacks that lacked any threatening GC contenders, he didn’t pay for those needless exertions but it was still a mistake. The way he faded slightly in the last week of racing would suggest he had peaked a little too early in the race, either by accident or design, but none of his rivals were close enough in the standings to challenge. With the toughest stages being stacked into the second half the race in 2014, it’s not a pattern Froome can afford to repeat.
Vincenzo Nibali – Astana Pro Team: Nibali’s victory at the 2013 Giro d’Italia was every bit as comprehensive as Froome’s had been in France. Strong in the mountains throughout, Nibali got better the longer the race went on, culminating in the memorable victory in the snow atop the Tre Cime de Lavaredo. Had stage 19, and its summit finish not been cancelled due to the terrible weather, his margin of victory would surely have been greater. Bad weather was a theme throughout the race, with several stages being affected or shortened by the conditions, as he has done in the past, Nibali remained impressive, whatever the obstacles nature was throwing in his way. As with Froome, Nibali was also superb against the clock, however the two ITT stages at the giro were favourable for him, one loaded with small hills and short twisting descents, the other was a mountain ITT, it’s the flatter courses he is less adept on. Nibali is also one of the best descenders in the peloton, where his bike handling skills come to the fore, though he does sometimes take risks that don’t pay off.
The verdict: Advantage Froome at a push: Both riders are terrific climbers, while we will have to wait until later in this season to see how their form matches in 2014, at this point I have difficulty seeing how either rider has an advantage over the other in the mountains. That in turn plays into Froome’s hands as the difference may come on the penultimate day with the long ITT, he has been stronger against the clock than Nibali, particularly when the course is flat. Stage 19 of the 2012 Tour de France was a 52km and relatively flat ITT, Froome finished 2nd and Nibali 16th, 2:22 behind him. The 2013 Tirreno-Adriatico finished with a flat 9km ITT which saw Froome finish 11 seconds ahead of Nibali, though Nibali still won the race. Nibali has improved his time trialing since that 2012 Tour, but his best hope must lie in the profile being lumpy, the lumpier it is the better it will suit him, whereas Froome copes brilliantly with any terrain. Where Nibali does have an advantage over Froome is his descending and bike handling skills, if there are technical run-ins, tough descents, or even unseasonable weather conditions then Nibali can come to the fore and attempt to challenge Froome. The most obvious opportunity for this comes on stage 16, where the riders crest the tough Port de Bales then face a fast descent down to the finish. If Nibali can isolate Froome on the climb, and it will be very selective, then he has a real chance to gain some time, though he would need to go over the top of the climb in the lead as I am not convinced he would be able to go clear on the descent itself. The climb was the scene of the infamous slipped chain for Andy Schleck in 2010, however Schleck was only 13-14 seconds down when he crested the climb, he lost another 25 seconds on the descent. We will get an early indication of their relative form at the Tour of Oman in February, and perhaps again at Milan-San Remo. However it probably won’t be until the Criterium du Dauphine that they will meet with their Tour form in their legs, giving us an idea of how they will match up a month later.
The Teams
Team Sky are reportedly set to support Froome with Richie Porte, Sergio Henao, Vasil Kiryienka, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Peter Kennaugh, Mikel Nieve, Bradley Wiggins and either Geraint Thomas or Ian Stannard. There will be 3-4 other riders who have a compatible fitness program that would allow them to step in if things have to change, but the final line-up should look similar. The 2013 Tour saw some great and some not so great support for Froome. Stage 8 to Ax 3 Domaines was the high water mark, Sky were down to four riders when the peloton reached the penultimate climb, the Col de Pailheres. They placed Vasil Kiryienka on the front and he went into metronome mode, keeping the pace high and steady, wearing down and thinning out the peloton behind. It was a very strong performance from Kiryienka, one he would pay dearly for the following day. Once Kiryienka was finished, Kennaugh took up the pace, and then led the peloton superbly on the descent, before taking up the pace again on Ax 3 Domaines. Porte succeeded Kennaugh and raised the pace while doing so, setting the platform for Froome to explode from the peloton and win the stage. That was how the Sky train is supposed to work. The following day was the low water mark, with Peter Kennaugh crashing, Porte cracking slightly and Kiryienka cracking completely, finishing outside the time limit and being excluded from the race. Froome saved the day but the team clearly paid for their previous efforts. This presumptive 2014 squad looks stronger, the excellent Nieve has been signed and Henao drafted in, but the one concern must be Porte’s fitness, after he competes in the Giro. Astana have also settled on a likely line-up as Nibali can expect support from Jakob Fuglsang, Michele Scarponi, Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic, Fredrik Kessiakoff, Alessandro Vanotti, Lieuwe Westra and either Andrei Grivko or Dmitri Gruzdev. Another very strong team, and like Sky, they are entirely focused on winning the Yellow Jersey. Fuglsang and Kangert should be the key riders for Nibali, while Scarponi will likely struggle with fatigue having raced at the Giro, much like Porte. Brajkovic and Kessiakoff will both hope they can find their 2012 form, neither enjoyed much luck in 2013. Westra is a powerful all-rounder, he can excel on any terrain other than the high mountains, and he isn’t a bad climber either and should prove a shrewd addition.
The verdict: Advantage Astana by the smallest of margins: In the end I give the nod to Astana because while both teams have a rider set to compete to win the Giro, Porte is more important to Froome than Scarponi is to Nibali, therefore a tiny advantage to the Kazakh team. In truth both squads look terrific on paper, a mix of climbing and power, a wealth of experience and a number of riders who can feasibly be there when the racing is at its most intense.
Potential Spoilers
Alberto Contador – Tinkoff-Saxo: 2013 was a chastening experience for Contador, he was expected to challenge Froome for the Tour de France but fell well short, never having the legs of old. It wasn’t just the failure at the Tour however, Contador had struggled for form earlier in the season, had complained of fatigue in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco, before racing the Ardennes against his own desires. Contador has changed up his training, recovery and race programs for 2014, trying to keep himself fresher throughout the year, if he does I wouldn’t bet against him being competitive in July. Regardless of what you think of riders who have served a doping ban, Contador remains a terrific racer, a rider who always seems alive to the opportunity to attack, and who could do so explosively.
Alejandro Valverde/Nairo Quintana – Movistar: All signs point to Valverde being the lead rider for Movistar in France, with Quintana going to the Giro instead, but that hasn’t been absolutely confirmed as of yet. Valverde is a fine all round GC rider, a very good climber and time trialist and a rider with great finishing speed for a climber. Valverde is certainly capable of being in contention but unless something unexpected happens would likely be on the outside looking in against Froome and Nibali. Quintana presents a more exciting threat, a terrific pure climber who can put anyone under pressure on the summit finishes, but the long ITT would likely prevent him from winning against Froome or Nibali.
I think that’s about it for the realistic contenders, there are a number of riders who can challenge for the podium, or possibly even better if something should happen to Froome and Nibali, but it is hard to see anyone winning the race at this point. Perhaps if one of the outsiders takes a big step forward in 2014 then it will be different, someone like Rui Costa, Tejay van Garderen or Bauke Mollema, but it’s a long shot.
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