The 2014 edition of Paris-Nice promises to be an unpredictable affair, as the absence of time trials and high mountain finishes forces the contenders to be more proactive throughout, to create gaps and take time bonuses in search of victory. As you can see in my preview the opening three stages are likely to end in bunch sprints, though here is always the possibility that strong winds could play a role. The final five stages will be where the general classification gets decided. Whoever wins will likely have had to race aggressively, attacking as and when the chance arose and taken some time bonuses along the way.
The contenders
Vincenzo Nibali – Astana Pro Team: The course may not suit the traditional stage racers, the lack of a high mountain finish and time trial diminishes the advantage that a top stage racer has over the rest of the peloton. However Nibali remains a gifted attacking rider who has done very well in many of the hilly one-day races that dot the cycling calendar, races that demand explosive climbing, risky descending, stamina and aggressive racing, all traits that Nibali possesses and all traits that suit this parcours. He has yet to come close to his best form, and the parcours isn’t ideal, but only a fool would discount Nibali in a risk takers race like this.
Rui Costa – Lampre-Merida: The World Champion is a strong climber, a proven winner in the one week stage races and a very capable stage winner. His attacking instincts brought him two stage victories in the Tour de France last season as well as the Rainbow Jersey. Costa has started the season strong, attacking on the flat in the Dubai Tour and again on more suitable terrain in the Volta Algarve, where he finished 3rd overall, and 2nd on two road stages, remember time bonuses will probably matter in this race. While I’m sure he would have been happy with a more traditional stage race design, he shouldn’t be discomfited by the lack of it as he has the skill set and the attacking instincts to make the most of this one.
Sylvain Chavanel – IAM Cycling: The multi-talented Chavanel will enjoy racing on a course that almost seems like it was designed for him, though if it was there would also be a short technical time trial on the flat. The Frenchman is completely at home on this hilly terrain, a very punchy rider with a fast finish and aggressive style. He will contend for time bonuses throughout the race and is always alive to the opportunity to attack, a legitimate GC contender.
Tony Gallopin – Lotto Belisol: A terrific all-round talent, Gallopin is a strong climber and fast finisher who is more than capable of excelling in this race. His potential has been known for some time but it’s taken him a while to put it all together and start taking the results his talent deserves. He claimed a superb victory in the Clasica Ciclista San Sebastian last season and has started solidly in 2014. With his form building for the classics campaign and his ability to challenge for time bonuses throughout, I expect him to make a strong impact on this race.
Tejay van Garderen – BMC Racing Team: After an impressive performance at the Tour of Oman, the American comes into Paris-Nice as the team’s unquestioned number one and a strong contender for the overall victory. A time trial or high mountain finish would certainly make the race more favourable for van Garderen, but he shouldn’t be discounted just because of their absence. He was superb in a breakaway on the queen stage of last year’s Tour de France and utilize a modified version of that idea here, letting his strong team weaken the peloton then attacking on a climb close to the finish, perhaps the Col de Bourigaille on stage six. It will be hard for him to win here but should the climbers succeed in creating an elite selection in this race, he will be there.
Carlos Betancur – AG2R La Mondiale: The gifted Betancur started this season out of shape, but even though he says he is yet to reach his racing weight he is finding his racing legs, as his victory in the Tour du Haut Var can attest. An explosive climber, Betancur might have preferred the inclusion of at least one high mountain finish, bringing those strengths to the fore, but make no mistake, he is equally dangerous on the short punchy climbs and will look to take victory on the Mur de Fayence. In the absence of a time trial Betancur has to be considered a major contender to take the overall victory, but first he has to prove he is the best option on his own team.
Romain Bardet – AG2R La Mondiale: Bardet comes into the race with a dual leadership role and on the back of good form, having won the Drome Classic last weekend. Bardet is developing into a climber of note, but he remains a natural puncheur with attacking instincts and looks to be ideally suited to this parcours. The team will likely let events on the road decide the leadership hierarchy, yet regardless of which rider proves strongest, in Betancur and Bardet they possess two dangerous riders, which gives the team some tactical flexibility.
Simon Spilak – Katusha: The Slovenian is a strong climber with a winning instinct, and is a major threat for the overall victory in this race. Spilak finished 6th overall last year before winning two hilly one-day races and taking a stage and 2nd place overall in the Tour de Romandie.
Geraint Thomas – Team Sky: Team Sky’s leader for the race after the late withdrawal of Richie Porte, in some ways Thomas is a better fit on this parcours. A strong all rounder, Thomas’s performance in the 2013 Tour Down Under showed he could excel as an attacking rider on punchy terrain. He appears to have moved away from dabbling with the classics, focusing more on his climbing skills and that should make him a little more explosive on the hills and help to keep him in contention in this race.
Tom-Jelte Slagter – Garmin-Sharp: The winner of that 2013 Tour Down Under, a race that showcased the range of Slagters skills and demonstrated why he should be considered a threat in Paris-Nice. A strong puncheur, he proved to be at home on the relatively short punchy climbs in Victoria, he also showed that he possesses the attacking instincts, burst and speed to win a stage against a hungry peloton and that mentality is ideal for a race like this.
Rafal Majka – Tinkoff-Saxo: Majka enjoyed a strong 2013 season and much more is expected from him this time around. One of the strongest climbers in the field, Majka would have been better suited to a parcours with more mountainous finishes and like van Garderen will be most dangerous if the top climbers can force a selection on one of the bigger climbs. Although he did do well on some seriously punchy terrain in the Tour de Pologne last year, and could do similarly well here.
Sergei Chernetckii – Katusha: Chernetckii may slip under the radar a little but he is in the process of developing into a leader for Katusha and should not be underestimated. The strong all-rounder is certainly capable of doing well on this hilly parcours. He was strong on all the uphill finishes during the Vuelta a Burgos last season before surprising the pack by soloing away to victory in the Arctic Race of Norway, weaker races it’s true but they were impressive performances for a neo-pro.
Ion Izagirre – Movistar: Izagirre impressed at the Vuelta a Andalucia where he finished 4th overall while riding in support of Alejandro Valverde. While he would have benefited from the inclusion of a time trial, Izagirre does cope well with the short punchy climbs and hilly terrain, as evidenced by his performance during the Tour de Pologne last season.
Wilco Kelderman – Belkin Pro Cycling Team: Kelderman has impressive potential as a stage race rider and will lead the Belkin team in Paris-Nice in search of experience as much as results. A strong time trialist and solid climber, this race will take him outside of his comfort zone to test other aspects of his skill set; it will be interesting to see how well he adapts.
Jan Bakelants – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: The lively Belgian excels on this sort of punchy terrain and showed he is reaching some form with an attacking performance in the Drome Classic. His stage win and subsequent stint in Yellow at last season’s Tour de France seemed to give him the confidence he needed to take the next step.
Zdenek Stybar – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: The cyclo-cross superstar still seems to be scratching the surface of what he can achieve on the road. A strong classics rider, superb bike handler, fast finisher and good climber, Stybar has all the skills necessary to compete with the very best on this parcours.
Jelle Vanendert – Lotto Belisol: It’s been a while since we have seen Vanendert at his best so it’s hard to know what to expect from him, but if he can get back to the form that let him contend in the Ardennes in 2012 then he could be very dangerous in this kind of race. If he does regain his form then he is a punchy climber and a contender for sage victory on stage 6 with the Ardennes style Mur de Fayence.
Tanel Kangert – Astana Pro Team: Kangert is likely going to play a supporting role for Nibali, but he gives the team a strong second GC option if they need one. Kangert is a good climber and has developed a strong all-round skill set; he has enough speed to make him a dangerous rider in a race where time bonuses are likely to be crucial.
Michael Albasini – Orica GreenEDGE: As we saw in his terrific victory at the Tour Down Under, this sort of bumpy parcours is perfect for Simon Gerrans. However after peaking right at the start of the season, Gerrans wound things down for a bit and is working his way back into top shape for the Ardennes and has said he isn’t ready to compete here. So unless that is just kidology I would expect Michael Albasini to take the leaders mantle for this race. The Swiss veteran is somewhat similar in style to Gerrans, a puncheur with a fast finish, though he is probably a better climber and slower on the line than Gerrans. Although he isn’t typically a GC contender, this isn’t a typical stage race and Albasini has upset the established order before, when he won the 2012 Volta Ciclista a Catalunya after taking time from a break on the opening stage, then holding off the favourites for the rest of the race.
Julien Simon – Cofidis: While Jerome Coppel may be the more usual leader, the punchy parcours and the absence of a time trial favour Simon’s skill set. The talented puncheur possesses enough speed to win from a small group and time bonuses are going to be key in this race.
Mathias Frank – IAM Cycling: The parcours looks to suit his team mate Chavanel better but Frank offers a strong second GC option for the Swiss team. He proved his attacking credentials last season by going on the offensive in several races and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him try that here.
Arthur Vichot – FDJ.fr: The French National Champion, Vichot will be highly motivated to impress on home soil. Vichot is a strong puncheur and potential stage winner who could be very dangerous on this parcours. He is getting his chance as team leader and despite the distinctive jersey; he could sneak under the radar if the bigger names are too busy marking each other.
Maxime Monfort – Lotto Belisol: Another GC option for Lotto Belisol and the best pure climber of the three, but also the least explosive and that will likely count on this course.
Frank Schleck – Trek Factory Racing: A gifted climber, at his best, Frank Schleck has always excelled in the Ardennes Classics, tough, long and hilly one day races, and if he could find that form then he would certainly be in contention here. He has been a little off the pace so far this season, but with his brother even further off the pace, Frank Schleck remains the teams strongest option for the GC.
Jean Gadret – Movistar: The veteran French climber will be keen to impress back on home soil with his new team. The lack of a time trial works to his advantage though he probably needs higher and steeper climbs to really excel. If he is to do well then he needs to attack on the steepest terrain, so the Cote du Mont Brouilly on stage four, and the Mur de Fayence at the finish of stage six.
Arnold Jeannesson – FDJ.fr: Jennesson is probably the strongest climber in the FDJ line up for Paris-Nice, and while he seems to be here as a support rider, should Vichot struggle Jeannesson would offer a solid alternative.
Cyril Gautier – Europcar: Gautier was very active during last season’s Tour de France, getting into several breakaway groups. He is at his best on hilly terrain so this edition of Paris-Nice is ideal for him. If Voeckler isn’t in the sort of shape he needs to ride for the GC then Gautier is the team’s best hope.
Damiano Caruso – Cannondale: Caruso is a good climber who would is capable of excelling on the shorter punchy climbs that populate the important stages of this race. It’s a important year for the Italian as he has the opportunity to finally establish himself as a team leader in his own right, however his hopes of a strong Paris-Nice have reportedly been threatened by illness this week and much will depend on how well he recovers.
The stage winners
Alexander Kristoff – Katusha: The Norwegian sprinter is one of the fastest finishers in the race and will be a major contender on the first three stages. Kristoff as already won once this season, picking up a stage win in the Tour of Oman. Katusha also have Alexey Tsatevich who will likely be a lead out man for Kristoff but is a solid sprinter himself and capable of surprising bigger names if it’s an uphill sprint.
John Degenkolb – Giant-Shimano: One of the best sprinters in the World and a gifted all-round talent, Degenkolb comes into the race in good form and seeking to add to his tally of wins, having already claimed three this year, all in the Tour Mediterraneen. Degenkolb is a better climber than many people think and if he can win multiple stages in the first half of the race, taking the time bonuses in the process, then don’t be surprised to see him put up a strong fight to hold onto the race lead.
Nacer Bouhanni – FDJ.fr: A stage winner in last year’s race, Bouhanni will be hoping to do even better this time round. The gifted sprinter has one victory to his name already this season after winning a stage in the Etoile de Besseges, while also finishing on the podium five other times. Although he has yet to work with a settled lead out train, the presence of Geoffrey Soupe will help bring out his best.
Bryan Coquard – Europcar: The talented young French sprinter is developing into a terrific rider, he should be competitive in all the sprint stages and climbs well enough that he could even contest one of the tougher possible sprints. A future star who is already capable of getting results.
Moreno Hofland – Belkin Pro Cycling Team: Hofland has impressed so far this season, winning a stage in the Vuelta a Andalucia and finishing 2nd in Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne. Hofland should contend in the sprints on the first three stages but with his form it will be interesting to see if he is climbing well enough to contest a sprint on one of the more selective stages.
Edvald Boasson Hagen – Team Sky: The Norwegian all-rounder showed solid form in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and has the skill set to excel in this race. A strong climber and fast finisher, he should be capable of leading on this parcours, as it is he will likely act as Sky’s stage winner in chief, competing in the bunch sprints and contending for victory on some of the tougher stages.
Matthew Goss – Orica GreenEDGE: It’s a crucial season in the career of Matthew Goss, he needs to show he can finally deliver the victories that were expected when he signed with Orica. He is supposedly the team’s first option for the flatter sprint stages in this race and with the absence of the elite sprinters there is an opportunity for him to get 2014 off to a strong start. However Goss isn’t a pure sprinter and tends to cope well on the hilly stages, but the team have other candidates for those as well.
Tom Boonen – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: Boonen has been enjoying a resurgent 2014 and it will be no surprise if he can get involved in some of the sprints, he and his team will be particularly dangerous if the winds are high.
Michael Matthews – Orica GreenEDGE: Bling Matthews comes to Paris-Nice as the teams second sprint option and the first choice for sprints on the hilly stages. The full extent of Matthews climbing skills have yet to be established, but he climbed superbly on a stage of the Tour of Utah last season and will be a dangerous rider here.
Gianni Meersman – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: A fine opportunistic sprinter, Meersman tends to be outmatched in the big bunch sprints but is an excellent climber and excels when sprinting after a hilly day. Stage five looks ideal for Meersman.
Adrien Petit – Cofidis: A developing sprinter, Petit will be an outsider against this level of competition, but it’s a great opportunity for him to see how he is measuring up to some of the fastest riders around.
Thor Hushovd – BMC Racing Team: After crashing out of the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Hushovd will be keen to use this race to springboard himself toward peak fitness, ahead of the classics. He should be in the mix for the bunch sprints and the harder the stage the more likely he is to contest victory.
Romain Feillu – Bretagne-Seche Environnment: Although it’s more than 2.5 years since his last win, Feillu is still very capable of being competitive in the sprints. He will be supported by Armindo Fonseca and Florian Vachon, either of whom could get involved in the sprint instead. Feillu will hope for better luck than he enjoyed in Le Samyn this week when his broke when cornering giving him a rather unpleasant landing, hopefully there are no lingering effects from that crash.
Greg Van Avermaet – BMC Racing Team: Building form ahead of the classics, Van Avermaet is an excellent opportunist. He climbs well and has a relatively fast finish, he won’t compete in a true bunch sprint but will certainly outlast the faster finishers.
Ramunas Navardauskas – Garmin-Sharp: The Lithuanian Navardauskas is a very strong rider who copes well with punchy hills and has enough speed to win from a reduced bunch. He will be a dangerous rider from stage four onwards.
Matti Breschel – Tinkoff-Saxo: The strongman sprinter has yet to show much form this season, he could do well here if the wind are high on one of the sprint stages, but otherwise may find it hard to land a positive result.
Samuel Dumoulin – AG2R La Mondiale: The veteran under-sized sprinter already has two podium finishes in 2014. He struggles a little against the more powerful pure sprinters, but Dumoulin is a better climber than most fast men and may find his best chance for victory comes on stage five.
Tyler Farrar – Garmin-Sharp: Farrar continues his quest to get back to being the rider who won big races, rather than one who records a lot of near misses. It’s been tough for him; he has as much bad luck as anyone and often seems on the cusp of finding that form only for it to slip away again. Confidence is everything for a sprinter and landing a strong result could turn things around for Farrar, once again he finds himself in a big race without any of the elite sprinters to dominate affairs, perhaps he can finally take advantage of the opportunity. If not then the team may look to Steele Von Hoff to give them a presence in the sprints.
Fabio Felline – Trek Factory Racing: The Italian fast man is a strong climber and is generally at his best on the more selective sprint stages.
Reinardt Janse van Rensburg – Giant-Shimano: The South African all-rounder/sprinter will be part of Degenkolb’s sprint train, but he is a fast finisher in his own right and a capable climber. Janse van Rensburg is a potential stage winner on the more selective sprint stages and could well be given the freedom to go in a break.
Francesco Gavazzi – Astana Pro Team: Another opportunistic sprinter who can come to the fore on the hillier stages.
Elia Favilli – Lampre-Merida: Yet another opportunistic sprinter, Favilli has yet to complete a race this season so he will be hard pressed to sneak a win here.
Jakob Fuglsang – Astana Pro Team: Fuglsang has talked before about wanting to go stage hunting in the first half of 2014, hoping to hone his attacking instincts and prove he can win big races. The terrain may not be ideal for him but Fuglsang could look to attack over the final climbs on stages four six and eight in an effort to stay clear and win the stage.
Luke Rowe – Team Sky: A late addition to the team after the withdrawal of Richie Porte, Rowe will likely be the lead out man for Boasson Hagen but could get the opportunity to sprint for himself.
Marco Marcato – Cannondale: It’s been a quiet start to Marcato’s Cannondale career but he is hoping to make his mark in this race. A strong rider and an opportunistic sprinter, Marcato is likely outmatched if there is an outright bunch sprint, but if he reaches the finish in a more select group, whether the selection is the result of winds or hills, then he will be dangerous.
Jose Joaquin Rojas – Movistar: Although he will struggle against some of the stronger sprinters in the race, Rojas remains a capable sprinter who is at his best on the lumpier terrain and as a result could find himself in contention on a hilly stage when the faster men have been dropped.
Riders to watch
Alessandro De Marchi – Cannondale: Cannandale could choose to give young climbers like George Bennett or Davide Villella the chance to attack on the hilly stages, but it looks as though De Marchi will be the teams preferred option. De Marchi enjoyed a strong debut season with the team in 2013, frequently getting into breaks on the more mountainous stages and claiming an impressive stage win in the Criterium du Dauphine.
Jonathan Hivert – Belkin Pro Cycling Team: Hivert and Lars Petter Nordhaug are strong punchy climbers who are very capable of impressing on this sort of terrain. Both will have to work in support of Kelderman, but either could be given the freedom to attack on the lumpier stages and it would be an ideal opportunity for Hivert to show his new team exactly what he can do.
Egor Silin – Katusha: A good climber and in good form, Silin should come to the fore once the terrain starts to rise.
Jens Keukeleire – Orica GreenEDGE: A double stage winner in last season’s Vuelta a Burgos, Keukeleire is a strong rider on hilly terrain as well as a potential stage winner from an uphill sprint, he will likely try and get into breaks in the second half of the race. Keep an eye out for Simon Yates, the British rider was in good form in the GP di Lugano and it won’t be a shock if he is given the license to attack in the hills.
Taylor Phinney – BMC Racing Team: Phinney has impressed so far in 2014, winning the Dubai Tour, showing some speed by mixing it with sprinters in Argentina and Dubai, and looking strong in foul conditions during Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Crashing out of Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne wasn’t ideal, nor was the nasty chain ring injury across his ribs, but hopefully he will be back to full strength by the end of Paris-Nice. Phinney will be here working for others and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him hit the front of the peloton if the winds are high on the opening stages.
Thomas Voeckler – Europcar: Voeckler has been a little off the pace after an early season training crash forced him off the bike. Since his return he has just been using races to regain fitness and has suggested that will mainly be the case here, but he’s been racing for almost a month now and it’s hard to imagine that Voeckler can pass up the opportunity to go on the attack at least once during the race.
Dries Devenyns – Giant-Shimano: The experienced Belgian demonstrated he was is decent sape at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and will be keen to take his preparation for the classics to the next level in this race. Expect to see Devenyns trying to get into a break on one of the hillier stages.
Lars Boom – Belkin Pro Cycling Team: Boom will be looking to fine tune his form ahead of the classics and it seems likely that he will try to get into a break at least once during the race. If the winds are high during the opening stages look for Boom to hit the front to try and split the peloton.
Maxime Bouet – AG2R La Mondiale: Bouet’s main task, along with Mikael Cherel, will be to support the two team leaders, however both riders are suited to this hilly parcours and it wouldn’t be a shock to see either let of the leash to attack. Bouet led the team in the Tour Down Under and was 6th in the hilly GP Lugano, finishing in the lead group. Cherel is in good form after doing well in the Tour du Haut Var and the Drome Classic.
Chris Anker Sorensen – Tinkoff-Saxo: Along with Ivan Rovny, will mainly be tasked with supporting Majka, but either rider is capable of riding well on this sort of punchy terrain.
Eduardo Sepulveda – Bretagne-Seche Environnment: The 22 year old Argentine has been turning heads already this season, climbing well in the Tour de San Luis and the Tour Mediterraneen. If he repeats that level of performance here then he could ride his way into a solid GC place and a World Tour contract for 2015.
Tim Wellens – Lotto Belisol: The 22 year old Belgian copes well with hilly terrain and will hope to get a chance to go on the attack towards the end of the race.
Stefan Denifl – IAM Cycling: Although he will mainly play a support role to Chavanel, the Austrian climber is capable of doing well on this terrain. He was 3rd on the final stage of the Tour Mediterraneen which featured a finish atop Mont Faron.
Mattia Cattaneo – Lampre-Merida: A gifted climber, Cattaneo lost a fair bit of his neo-pro season to injury and health scares, he has some catching up to do and could be given the license to attack on one of the hillier stages.
Jerome Cousin – Europcar: A powerful breakaway rider, Cousin should be able to slip into the break on one of the hilly stages and has done well on that sort of terrain in the past.
Egoitz Garcia – Cofidis: After a strong showing in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Garcia will be keen to stretch his legs again and will likely try and get into a break on one of the hilly stages.
Bob Jungels – Trek Factory Racing: A terrific talent for the future, Jungels has the natural all-round skill set to excel on this sort of course. For now though he is likely to be given the freedom to pick a couple of stages and go on the offensive, rather than riding for the GC.
Brice Feillu – Bretagne-Seche Environnment: As with his brother Romain, Brice has seen the results and performances dry up in recent seasons. He is still an attacking climber and should manage to get into at least one break this week.
Benoit Vaugrenard – FDJ.fr: It’s been a while since Vaugrenard has landed a big result, but he remains a strong punchy climber and can contend on the short uphill finishes.
The Week in Cycling 