The Tour of the Basque Country is always an exciting race to watch, the parcours is full of short sharp climbs which lend themselves to attacking riding, while the absence of the truly high mountain finishes forces the GC riders to ride aggressively throughout. Given the spiky terrain and the overlap with the cobbled classic season there is usually a dearth of pure sprinters, with the flatter stages belonging to the more versatile fast men and teams filling their squads with climbers instead. The nature of the parcours and timing of the race also make it ideal preparation for the Ardennes week and provides an excellent barometer of form for the likely contenders there. The start list is still unofficial and changes are a certainty, so some rough calculations and guess work are required when preparing a preview and that should be borne in mind.
The Stages (Images from http://www.itzulia.net/en/2014)
Stage one
Stage one: Ordizia – Ordizia 153.4km
Stage one demonstrates why this race provides excellent preparation for the Ardennes classics, as the peloton has to tackle short and relatively sharp climbs throughout the day. The stage finishes 6.7km after the final ascent of the Alto de Gaintza, it’s short but steep. It’s a new climb to the race but the peloton climbs it for the first time about 50km earlier in the stage so we will get a good idea of what to expect on the final climb of the day. It certainly looks like an excellent attacking opportunity and any rider with their eye on the GC is going to have to be very alert on this stage
Stage two
Stage two: Ordizia – Dantxarinea (Urdazubi) 155.8km
Stage two features some significant climbing in the opening 110km but while the run in to the finish remains bumpy the stage should end with some sort of bunch sprint, though it looks like it may be an uphill sprint.
Stage three
Stage three: Urdazubi-Urdax – Vitoria-Gasteiz 194.5km
With climbing right from the start, stage three offers a great opportunity for a breakaway to establish a significant advantage, though if the wrong riders get up the road it could also see a frantic start as the peloton chases them down. It’s the longest stage in the race at 194.7km, there are two climbs in the final 35km and a 9km descent to the finish line and it could provide an opportunity for an attacker to spring away for the win. However the climbs don’t look that difficult so unless the GC teams really drive the pace or the descent is technical I would expect a reasonable sized group to reach the finish.
Stage four
Stage four: Vitoria-Gasteiz – Eibar-Arrate 151km
The most significant uphill finish in the race as the stage finishes atop the Alto de Usartza, a regular feature of the Tour of the Basque Country. It comes after another day full of climbing and it’s not a particularly long climb, coming in around 7km at 6.7%, but there is a 3km section in the middle which averages close to 10% and has a number of ramps in excess of that. The climb flattens off at the top with a short downhill section to the finish, Nairo Quintana (Movistar) won the stage last year and Samuel Sanchez (BMC) has a strong track record on this climb.
Stage five
Stage five: Eibar- Markina-Xemein 160.2km
The final road stage of the race has an imposing looking final 6okm full of the races characteristic short and sharp climbs, the final two of which are significant enough to provide a launch pad for a last roll of the dice ahead of the ITT. If a group reaches the finish together it will be a small one but it wouldn’t surprise me if a rider or a handful of riders can elude the chasers and stay clear to the finish.
Stage six
Stage six: Markina-Xemein – Markina-Xemein 25.9km
The race finishes with its customary time trial, this time on a hilly 25.9km course that should help to alleviate the weakness of some of the GC contenders against the clock.
The Riders
The Contenders
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) has enjoyed a storming start to the season; he was easily the best rider in the Vuelta a Andalucia, looked strong in Strade Bianche then even better when winning Roma Maxima the following day. He has been familiarising himself on the cobbles in the past week and looked strong enough to contend for victory here. Valverde is fast enough to win the sprint if small groups come to the finishes together, though he should be wary of Kwiatkowski. Valverde looked good against the clock in the prologue of the Vuelta a Andalucia and the hills in the ITT will certainly suit him.
Alberto Contador (Tinkoff Saxo) is another rider who has enjoyed an impressive start to the season and showed his attacking intentions right from the start with victory on the Alto do Malhao in the Volta ao Algarve. Contador followed that with a terrific long range victory on stage five on his way to winning Tirreno-Adriatico. His form looks great but the lack of a fast finish could cost him here
The talented Michal Kwiatkowski (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) has taken another step forward in 2014 and is rapidly approaching phenomenon status, if he isn’t already there. A strong punchy climber and excellent time trialist, Kwiatkowski is an obvious contender in this race, and he should be hitting form ahead of the Ardennes classics. His one weakness has been keeping up with the best on the longer climbs, but that isn’t a big deal on this parcours, and while he could lose some time on stage four, it won’t be much and he is capable of taking it back again in the ITT. Kwiatkowski is also a very fast finisher and will be dangerous if he is in the front group on any of the stages.
The World Champion Rui Costa (Lampre-Merida) is still searching for that first win while wearing the rainbow stripes, but it hasn’t been for want of trying as he has consistently went on the offensive this season, with five 2nd place finishes to his credit. He is also well suited to the parcours, a good climber and time trialist, he descends well and has decent speed on the line, it may not be enough to bring the victory he craves, but he should be close.
Carlos Betancur (AG2R) is built for this sort of terrain, he excels on the punchy climbs and has good speed at the finish as he showed while winning Paris-Nice less than a month ago. However he abandoned the Volta a Catalunya with illness and if that has affected his condition the team could opt to go with Jean-Christophe Peraud, who won the Criterium International last weekend. Peraud is the stronger time trialist but Betancur coped well enough in the ITT in last year’s race and it had a similarly hilly parcours.
BMC would appear to have a host of options to lead them in the race. The form rider is Tejay van Garderen, he was looked strong in the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya, and will be keen to get some more race days in the legs to make up for being forced out of Paris-Nice with illness. Cadel Evans was off the pace in Tirreno-Adriatico and will need to find some form ahead of the Giro d’Italia, while the team could use the race to give either Samuel Sanchez or Darwin Atapuma a chance to show what they can do. Of course the Basque Sanchez is the obvious option; he knows this race superbly and has enjoyed success in the past, while Atapuma has the natural skill set to do well on this terrain.
Bauke Mollema (Belkin Pro Cycling Team) has yet to hit the heights of last July this season, but he remains a strong competitor. A very good climber and solid time trialist, he is also capable of riding very aggressively and has decent speed on the line.
Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) has had a quiet start to the season, but the big Canadian has shown himself to be an aggressive rider when he has the right form and he could certainly shake things up. The team should have an excellent alternative in Tom-Jelte Slagter, a double stage winner in Paris-Nice, the talented puncheur will be at home on this parcours. Several finishes come after descents and if any of those are particularly technical then watch out for Janier Acevedo, the Colombian is terrific going downhill.
Simon Spilak (Katusha Team) showed he was starting to hit form towards the end of Paris-Nice as he launched several late attacks from the peloton. The aggressive climber should arrive here in stronger form and is more than capable of upsetting some of the bigger names.
When Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto Belisol) crashed out of Tirreno-Adriatico with a knee injury there was an initial worry that the serious problems that derailed his 2013 campaign were back. Thankfully that wasn’t the case and he is back racing, but he still remains a little short of the form he needs if he is to be competitive here.
If given the opportunity to ride for himself, Tanel Kangert (Astana) is more than capable of being a major factor in this race. A super-domestique for Vincenzo Nibali, Kangert has a strong all-round skill set and the attacking attitude to excel on this punchy terrain; he is also a capable, if inconsistent time trialist.
It seems likely that Team Sky would opt for Mikel Nieve to lead them in his home race. The gifted climber is set to be a key domestique for the team in the Tour de France, and having an opportunity for some personal glory ahead of that is good for the spirit of a domestique.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) has struggled to get going so far in 2014 but having finally finished a stage race in Catalunya he will hope to be more competitive here.
Warren Barguil (Giant-Shimano) is clearly an extremely gifted rider, and isn’t neither afraid of going on the offensive nor intimidated in the presence of the biggest names in cycling. He will have to be aggressive though as he seems certain to lose time on the final day ITT.
This parcours should be ideal for an aggressive rider such as Luis Leon Sanchez (Caja Rural). A highly opportunistic rider who likes to attack on climbs close to the finish, he is capable of descending away from the pack. Sanchez is also a strong time trialist and seems a natural candidate to contend here, but he was off the pace in Catalunya and that must be a concern, perhaps he struggled with the poor conditions and can recover for this next race.
Moreno Moser (Cannondale) is getting the chance to ride for himself after having worked for Peter Sagan for much of the season and he needs to make the most of it. A talented punchy climber, Moser has the skill set to impress on this parcours but he will have to be aggressive to do so.
It’s the latest race on the comeback trail for Frank Schleck (Trek Factory Racing) and he is coming into form ahead of the Ardennes classics. He finished 6th overall in the Criterium International and looked very strong on the Col de l’Ospidale. Time trialing is his likely downfall but the team can also call upon Bob Jungels who excels against the clock and is improving as a climber.
Cyril Gautier (Europcar) had a strong Paris-Nice, where he finished 6th overall. A punchy rider who is suited to the hilly parcours, he can struggle with the longer climbs but that isn’t a concern in this race, though he will likely lose some ground on the final stage time trial.
Other Riders to Watch
Michael Matthews (Orica GreenEDGE) is the fastest finisher in the race and a terrific climber for a fast man; he is the obvious favourite for stages two and three. The Australian team will also be hoping to see signs of form for Simon Gerrans, he opened the season on fire but a short break has been followed by illness and it may have left him short of form ahead of his next major targets in the Ardennes.
Philippe Gilbert (BMC) should be getting close to the form necessary to excel in the Ardennes and will use this race as his final tune up ahead of those races. If the form is there he could get involved in any reduced sprints and could well launch an attack on one of the stages with a hill near the end and a descent to the finish.
Tony Martin (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) is the clear favorite for the ITT, though the hilly nature of the course does play into the hands of the GC riders. Yet to win in 2014, the World Time Trial Champion will be keen to break his duck here and the fact that it is the longest time trial he has raced this season definitely suits him.
Ben Swift (Team Sky) is finally enjoying some success after suffering from rotten luck in 2013. Swift is a fast finisher and climbs well, he should be in contention on stages two and three, his podium placing in Milan-San Remo and stage victories in the Coppi e Bartali show the form is there to be a danger man in this race.
Jose Joaquin Rojas (Movistar) has long been one of the best climbing sprinters around, lacking the speed to take on the top sprinters but capable of getting over hills that they can’t and finding success that way. He is only 28 but he seems to have lost some of his sprinting speed, which makes victories even harder to come by, but his climbing is better than ever and he showed great form to finish 4th overall in Paris-Nice.
The punchy Arthur Vichot (FDJ) took a fine win from a small group on the lumpy final stage of Paris-Nice, and there are similar stages in this race. I think we can expect to see that impressive French National Champion Jersey to the fore
Daniele Ratto (Cannondale) is at his best on the tougher sprint finishes and should be able to be competitive in this field.
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