Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco 2014 Preview

The Tour of the Basque Country is always an exciting race to watch, the parcours is full of short sharp climbs which lend themselves to attacking riding, while the absence of the truly high mountain finishes forces the GC riders to ride aggressively throughout. Given the spiky terrain and the overlap with the cobbled classic season there is usually a dearth of pure sprinters, with the flatter stages belonging to the more versatile fast men and teams filling their squads with climbers instead. The nature of the parcours and timing of the race also make it ideal preparation for the Ardennes week and provides an excellent barometer of form for the likely contenders there. The start list is still unofficial and changes are a certainty, so some rough calculations and guess work are required when preparing a preview and that should be borne in mind.

The Stages (Images from http://www.itzulia.net/en/2014)

 

Stage one

Stage one: Ordizia – Ordizia 153.4km

Stage one demonstrates why this race provides excellent preparation for the Ardennes classics, as the peloton has to tackle short and relatively sharp climbs throughout the day. The stage finishes 6.7km after the final ascent of the Alto de Gaintza, it’s short but steep. It’s a new climb to the race but the peloton climbs it for the first time about 50km earlier in the stage so we will get a good idea of what to expect on the final climb of the day. It certainly looks like an excellent attacking opportunity and any rider with their eye on the GC is going to have to be very alert on this stage

 

Stage two

Stage two: Ordizia – Dantxarinea (Urdazubi) 155.8km

Stage two features some significant climbing in the opening 110km but while the run in to the finish remains bumpy the stage should end with some sort of bunch sprint, though it looks like it may be an uphill sprint.

 

Stage three

Stage three: Urdazubi-Urdax – Vitoria-Gasteiz 194.5km

With climbing right from the start, stage three offers a great opportunity for a breakaway to establish a significant advantage, though if the wrong riders get up the road it could also see a frantic start as the peloton chases them down. It’s the longest stage in the race at 194.7km, there are two climbs in the final 35km and a 9km descent to the finish line and it could provide an opportunity for an attacker to spring away for the win. However the climbs don’t look that difficult so unless the GC teams really drive the pace or the descent is technical I would expect a reasonable sized group to reach the finish.

 

Stage four

Stage four: Vitoria-Gasteiz – Eibar-Arrate 151km

The most significant uphill finish in the race as the stage finishes atop the Alto de Usartza, a regular feature of the Tour of the Basque Country. It comes after another day full of climbing and it’s not a particularly long climb, coming in around 7km at 6.7%, but there is a 3km section in the middle which averages close to 10% and has a number of ramps in excess of that. The climb flattens off at the top with a short downhill section to the finish, Nairo Quintana (Movistar) won the stage last year and Samuel Sanchez (BMC) has a strong track record on this climb.

 

Stage five

Stage five: Eibar- Markina-Xemein 160.2km

The final road stage of the race has an imposing looking final 6okm full of the races characteristic short and sharp climbs, the final two of which are significant enough to provide a launch pad for a last roll of the dice ahead of the ITT. If a group reaches the finish together it will be a small one but it wouldn’t surprise me if a rider or a handful of riders can elude the chasers and stay clear to the finish.

 

Stage six

Stage six: Markina-Xemein – Markina-Xemein 25.9km

The race finishes with its customary time trial, this time on a hilly 25.9km course that should help to alleviate the weakness of some of the GC contenders against the clock.

 

The Riders

 

The Contenders

Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) has enjoyed a storming start to the season; he was easily the best rider in the Vuelta a Andalucia, looked strong in Strade Bianche then even better when winning Roma Maxima the following day. He has been familiarising himself on the cobbles in the past week and looked strong enough to contend for victory here. Valverde is fast enough to win the sprint if small groups come to the finishes together, though he should be wary of Kwiatkowski. Valverde looked good against the clock in the prologue of the Vuelta a Andalucia and the hills in the ITT will certainly suit him.

Alberto Contador (Tinkoff Saxo) is another rider who has enjoyed an impressive start to the season and showed his attacking intentions right from the start with victory on the Alto do Malhao in the Volta ao Algarve. Contador followed that with a terrific long range victory on stage five on his way to winning Tirreno-Adriatico. His form looks great but the lack of a fast finish could cost him here

The talented Michal Kwiatkowski (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) has taken another step forward in 2014 and is rapidly approaching phenomenon status, if he isn’t already there. A strong punchy climber and excellent time trialist, Kwiatkowski is an obvious contender in this race, and he should be hitting form ahead of the Ardennes classics. His one weakness has been keeping up with the best on the longer climbs, but that isn’t a big deal on this parcours, and while he could lose some time on stage four, it won’t be much and he is capable of taking it back again in the ITT. Kwiatkowski is also a very fast finisher and will be dangerous if he is in the front group on any of the stages.

The World Champion Rui Costa (Lampre-Merida) is still searching for that first win while wearing the rainbow stripes, but it hasn’t been for want of trying as he has consistently went on the offensive this season, with five 2nd place finishes to his credit. He is also well suited to the parcours, a good climber and time trialist, he descends well and has decent speed on the line, it may not be enough to bring the victory he craves, but he should be close.

Carlos Betancur (AG2R) is built for this sort of terrain, he excels on the punchy climbs and has good speed at the finish as he showed while winning Paris-Nice less than a month ago. However he abandoned the Volta a Catalunya with illness and if that has affected his condition the team could opt to go with Jean-Christophe Peraud, who won the Criterium International last weekend. Peraud is the stronger time trialist but Betancur coped well enough in the ITT in last year’s race and it had a similarly hilly parcours.

BMC would appear to have a host of options to lead them in the race. The form rider is Tejay van Garderen, he was looked strong in the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya, and will be keen to get some more race days in the legs to make up for being forced out of Paris-Nice with illness. Cadel Evans was off the pace in Tirreno-Adriatico and will need to find some form ahead of the Giro d’Italia, while the team could use the race to give either Samuel Sanchez or Darwin Atapuma a chance to show what they can do. Of course the Basque Sanchez is the obvious option; he knows this race superbly and has enjoyed success in the past, while Atapuma has the natural skill set to do well on this terrain.

Bauke Mollema (Belkin Pro Cycling Team) has yet to hit the heights of last July this season, but he remains a strong competitor. A very good climber and solid time trialist, he is also capable of riding very aggressively and has decent speed on the line.

Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) has had a quiet start to the season, but the big Canadian has shown himself to be an aggressive rider when he has the right form and he could certainly shake things up. The team should have an excellent alternative in Tom-Jelte Slagter, a double stage winner in Paris-Nice, the talented puncheur will be at home on this parcours. Several finishes come after descents and if any of those are particularly technical then watch out for Janier Acevedo, the Colombian is terrific going downhill.

Simon Spilak (Katusha Team) showed he was starting to hit form towards the end of Paris-Nice as he launched several late attacks from the peloton. The aggressive climber should arrive here in stronger form and is more than capable of upsetting some of the bigger names.

When Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto Belisol) crashed out of Tirreno-Adriatico with a knee injury there was an initial worry that the serious problems that derailed his 2013 campaign were back. Thankfully that wasn’t the case and he is back racing, but he still remains a little short of the form he needs if he is to be competitive here.

If given the opportunity to ride for himself, Tanel Kangert (Astana) is more than capable of being a major factor in this race. A super-domestique for Vincenzo Nibali, Kangert has a strong all-round skill set and the attacking attitude to excel on this punchy terrain; he is also a capable, if inconsistent time trialist.

It seems likely that Team Sky would opt for Mikel Nieve to lead them in his home race. The gifted climber is set to be a key domestique for the team in the Tour de France, and having an opportunity for some personal glory ahead of that is good for the spirit of a domestique.

Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) has struggled to get going so far in 2014 but having finally finished a stage race in Catalunya he will hope to be more competitive here.

Warren Barguil (Giant-Shimano) is clearly an extremely gifted rider, and isn’t neither afraid of going on the offensive nor intimidated in the presence of the biggest names in cycling. He will have to be aggressive though as he seems certain to lose time on the final day ITT.

This parcours should be ideal for an aggressive rider such as Luis Leon Sanchez (Caja Rural). A highly opportunistic rider who likes to attack on climbs close to the finish, he is capable of descending away from the pack. Sanchez is also a strong time trialist and seems a natural candidate to contend here, but he was off the pace in Catalunya and that must be a concern, perhaps he struggled with the poor conditions and can recover for this next race.

Moreno Moser (Cannondale) is getting the chance to ride for himself after having worked for Peter Sagan for much of the season and he needs to make the most of it. A talented punchy climber, Moser has the skill set to impress on this parcours but he will have to be aggressive to do so.

It’s the latest race on the comeback trail for Frank Schleck (Trek Factory Racing) and he is coming into form ahead of the Ardennes classics. He finished 6th overall in the Criterium International and looked very strong on the Col de l’Ospidale. Time trialing is his likely downfall but the team can also call upon Bob Jungels who excels against the clock and is improving as a climber.

Cyril Gautier (Europcar) had a strong Paris-Nice, where he finished 6th overall. A punchy rider who is suited to the hilly parcours, he can struggle with the longer climbs but that isn’t a concern in this race, though he will likely lose some ground on the final stage time trial.

 

Other Riders to Watch

Michael Matthews (Orica GreenEDGE) is the fastest finisher in the race and a terrific climber for a fast man; he is the obvious favourite for stages two and three. The Australian team will also be hoping to see signs of form for Simon Gerrans, he opened the season on fire but a short break has been followed by illness and it may have left him short of form ahead of his next major targets in the Ardennes.

Philippe Gilbert (BMC) should be getting close to the form necessary to excel in the Ardennes and will use this race as his final tune up ahead of those races. If the form is there he could get involved in any reduced sprints and could well launch an attack on one of the stages with a hill near the end and a descent to the finish.

Tony Martin (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) is the clear favorite for the ITT, though the hilly nature of the course does play into the hands of the GC riders. Yet to win in 2014, the World Time Trial Champion will be keen to break his duck here and the fact that it is the longest time trial he has raced this season definitely suits him.

Ben Swift (Team Sky) is finally enjoying some success after suffering from rotten luck in 2013. Swift is a fast finisher and climbs well, he should be in contention on stages two and three, his podium placing in Milan-San Remo and stage victories in the Coppi e Bartali show the form is there to be a danger man in this race.

Jose Joaquin Rojas (Movistar) has long been one of the best climbing sprinters around, lacking the speed to take on the top sprinters but capable of getting over hills that they can’t and finding success that way. He is only 28 but he seems to have lost some of his sprinting speed, which makes victories even harder to come by, but his climbing is better than ever and he showed great form to finish 4th overall in Paris-Nice.

The punchy Arthur Vichot (FDJ) took a fine win from a small group on the lumpy final stage of Paris-Nice, and there are similar stages in this race. I think we can expect to see that impressive French National Champion Jersey to the fore

Daniele Ratto (Cannondale) is at his best on the tougher sprint finishes and should be able to be competitive in this field.

 

 

2014 Team Preview – Garmin-Sharp

The Garmin-Sharp transformation project, from stage hunting underdogs into a General Classification team continues apace. With that in mind they have acquired another haul of climbing and time-trial talent, to assimilate and develop alongside their increasingly established stars. The team have earned a reputation for attacking riding and giving young riders their chance. They have been willing to roll the dice in a race and sometimes it pays off big. One such occasion was the 9th stage of the 2013 Tour de France where they caused chaos in the early part of the day, blowing the race wide open and ultimately taking the win through Daniel Martin. In the past two seasons they have made great strides through Ryder Hesjedal (2012 Giro winner) and Martin (2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner, 2013 Volta Ciclista a Catalunya winner) and both are set to play prominent roles again in 2014. While Hesjedal struggled to replicate his 2012 success, he did demonstrate the confidence to attack when he felt good; playing a key role in Dan Martins’ LBL victory and animating the early stages of the 2013 Giro, before his form tailed off and suffered with illness. He has also endured a difficult off-season with the revelations of past drug use, I’d expect that Hesjedal will face further questions about that as the season goes on which could become distraction. Fair or not, those questions will arise because some remain sceptical about the date he stopped using the drugs. I’ve not seen any reports about his race schedule for 2014 but I’d expect him to skip the Giro and focus on the Tour de France, where the less strenuous climbs and longer ITT suit his skill set. Dan Martin was the team’s undoubted star in 2013. He will hope to take that momentum into the Giro, where he will be the team’s sole leader and one of the top contenders. With the race starting in Ireland and featuring plenty of steep climbs he should relish it, though his time trialing will be his biggest limitation and will have been the major focus of his winter training. He is always a stage win threat, showing tactical nous when he out foxed Jakob Fuglsang to win the Tour de France stage, and impressive stamina to hold on for a terrific solo win in the 2013 Volta Ciclista a Catalunya. His greatest triumph came in Liege-Bastogne-Liege,where he caught Purito in the final 1km then kicked away to seal a great victory.

Behind those two Garmin have a lot of climbing options and a third Grand Tour leader in Andrew Talansky, who also had a memorable 2013. Talansky was a stage winner and 2nd overall in Paris-Nice, losing out to Richie Porte on the 5th stage after aggressively attacking the peloton while in the Leader’s Jersey. He took some criticism for being a bit over exuberant, but he will learn from that day. I certainly prefer a rider whose natural inclination is to do too much, rather than playing it safe and losing by not doing enough. He followed that up with a 10th overall finish in the Tour de France, despite struggling on a couple of stages. Talansky is a strong climber and good against the clock, he should take another step forward as a GC contender in 2o14 when a return to the Tour is on the cards. Tom-Jelte Slagter, who joins from Belkin, is a punchy Dutch rider who won the Tour Down Under in 2013 and looks tailor-made for the Ardennes Classics. Colombian climber Janier Acevedo joins after looking terrific during the American season, an attacking rider and a magnificent descender, he may need a little time to adjust to the World Tour but he should impress in 2014. Rohan Dennis impressed in the Criterium du Dauphine, while Lachlan Morton was highly entertaining to watch in the Tour of Utah, a climber to keep an eye on. The team has maintained their commitment to feature American riders, the veteran Tom Danielson returns as does Alex Howes, a punchy climber who is settling into the pro peloton, they also have new faces Phillip Gaimon, Ben King who joins from RadioShack and Nathan Brown, a promising 22 year old TT specialist. Tyler Farrar returns again, he has struggled to replicate the success he enjoyed a couple of seasons ago but remains the teams best sprinter and seems to be hopeful that he is getting back to his best. Farrar isn’t their only stage win threat. Ramunas Navardauskas won a stage in the Giro and showed he could survive in the hills and contest the finish from a more select group, while Steel Von Hoff was solid in the sprints but needs to show a little more burst if he wants to take wins at this level. The team has lost some valuable experience with the retirements of David Zabriskie and Christian Vande Velde, however they do still have the wise old head of David Millar for one final season.

A reconfigured Cobbles squad

Despite the progression to a team of climbers, the Cobbled Classics have always been a major target for the team and this year will be no different. They will be particularly motivated after failing to make any impression on the cobbles during 2013. Each year it seems they add another rider who has shown some aptitude there in the past, but too often they then sink without a trace, as Martin Maaskant and Sebastien Rosseler have done. Their only success on the cobbles came when Johan Vansummeren won Paris-Roubaix in 2011, Sep Vanmarcke (Belkin nowadays) was also 2nd in the 2010 Gent-Wevelgem, where Tyler Farrar came 3rd in the 2011 edition. For this year the cobbles unit will again feature Farrar and Vansummeren, alongside a hopefully fit Nick Nuyens and the newly signed Sebastian Langeveld. Nuyens won the 2011 Ronde van Vlaanderen but his career was derailed by a fractured hip early in 2012 and he hasn’t shown the same form since. Langeveld is an experienced cobbles rider who finished 5th, 10th and 7th in E3 Harelbeke, Ronde van Vlanderen and Paris-Roubaix respectively in 2013, he is likely to be given a joint leadership role in the spring and should be able to do even better in 2014.

2014 season outlook

It’s hard to know what would constitute a successful season for Garmin in 2014, improved GC showings wouldn’t automatically result in overall wins. Success at the Giro is certainly possible but Dan Martin won’t start as the favourite, not with Nairo Quintana targeting the victory. A strong showing from Talansky and Hesjedal at the Tour would be great but with Froome and Nibali looking likely to contest the win, getting onto the podium is going to be difficult. Instead I’d look for greater success in the week long stage races and more race wins overall, they will return to the Ardennes with some strong options but those races are so hard to control that it is difficult to predict success there.

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Related articles

• Team Garmin-Sharp Reveals 2014 Roster

• 2013 Report Card: Garmin-Sharp (cyclingnews.com)
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• Dan Martin video interview part I: Garmin-Sharp leader speaks at length about best ever year, concussion issues and more (velonation.com)
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The Laurentian Classics Preview: Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec & Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal

The two Canadian classics are very recent editions to the cycling calender, have first run in 2010, however what they lack in history is made up for by the difficulty of the parcours and the strength of the field taking part. They take place two days apart and are something of a novelty for World Tour races, in that both are circuit races.

The Grand Prix Cycliste du Quebec takes place over 16 laps of a 12.6km circuit, for a total of 201.6km. As you can see in the profile below each circuit features four short climbs in the final 3.6km, the first three are short and steep, then the race finishes on the final one which is 1km long at 4%. The three previous versions were won by Simon Gerrans, Philippe Gilbert and Tommy Voeckler, none of whom are here. However they give a good idea of the sort of rider who excels on the course, the same sort of fast and punchy finisher who does well in the Ardennes.

GP Cycliste du Quebec
Profile from http://gpcqm.ca

The Grand Prix Cycliste du Montreal takes place over 17 laps of a 12.1km circuit, for a total of 205.7km. Each lap features three climbs, longer on average than those in Quebec, it opens with the 1.8km, 8% Cote Camilien-Houde and also has an uphill finish. The race features just over 900m more elevation gained so it will suit the climbers a little more and that can be seen by looking at the previous winners, Lars Petter Nordhaug, Rui Costa and Robert Gesink, all of whom return. However the same riders can excel in both races, depending on how the race plays out.

GP Cycliste du Montreal
Profile from http://gpcqm.ca

With both races being in Canada, only two days apart and requiring similar characteristics to win, theywill likely have very similar startlist, so I’m using the confirmed start list for Quebec to pick out riders. A lot of riders will use these two races as part of their World Championship preparations, this is particularly pertinent this year since the Road Race features such a hilly circuit. So who should we keep an eye on?

Peter Sagan – Cannondale: The clear favorite in Quebec, he has been filling his boots with wins in North America for the last month but winning one of these races would trump the rest. He is showing good form and should be very hard to shake in Quebec. Although he is an excellent climber for a fast man, he could struggle to keep up with the elite climbers on Cote Camilien-Houde if they make the pace high each time. The better climbers will know that they must drop him to win in Montreal, if they can.

John Degenkolb – Argos-Shimano: Another very fast finisher who is comfortable on the climbs, the biggest threat to Sagan if a sizable group reached the finish together.

Rui Costa – Movistar: Costa won in Montreal in 2011 and was 3rd in Quebec last year. A very good climber who has a faster finish than most climbers, he will need to drop the very fast men, such as Sagan, but if he does he has a great chance.

Tony Gallopin – RadioShack-Leopard: A talented all-rounder who took a large step forward when winning the Clasica San Sebastian, he is a fast finisher and a real contender for these races.

Sylvain Chavanel – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: Chavanel is an attacking punchy rider who can finish well from a reduced group, will be hard to drop if he is in good shape.

Robert Gesink – Belkin: Gesink won in Montreal in 2010 and has finished and and 3rd in Quebec, having shown a little form in the Tour of Alberta he will be looking to do well in these races yet again.

Greg Van Avermaet – BMC: Van Avermaet is a good finisher from a reduced peloton, if they can drop Sagan he has a realistic chance of winning.

Ryder Hesjedal – Garmin-Sharp: In 2010 Hesjedal was 3rd in Montreal and 4th in Quebec. He has had a disappointing season and will want to win here to change that.

Lars Petter Nordhaug – Belkin: Winner in Montreal in 2012 and a strong punchy rider, he hasn’t had the best form but is certainly capable of contending again.

Alexandr Kolobnev – Katusha: A proven competitor in the punchy classics, the form hasn’t been there but he should not be discounted.

Jurgen Roelandts – Lotto Belisol: Roelandts is a typical Classics sprinter, more strong than fast and capable of handling the short steep climbs found in the Tour of Flanders, where he was 3rd this year.

Michal Kwiatkowski – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: The young polish all rounder ha had a sensational 2013. He has proven to be an excellent climber with a very fast finish, he should feature.

Michael Albasini – Orica GreenEDGE: Albasini has had a quiet season, but he is a strong enough climber to do well here and a fast finisher.

Giacomo Nizzolo – RadioShack-Leopard: A young opportunistic sprinter, he can cope well with the hills and if he is in the final group he has a real chance of winning.

Simon Spilak – Katusha: Spilak had a great first half of the season but hasn’t been able to replicate it in recent races. If he finds form he is an excellent climber and a capable winner.

Arthur Vichot – FDJ: The French Champion is at home on this terrain and is a fast enough finisher to win from a very reduced peloton.

Romain Bardet – AG2R: Bardet has impressed throughout the season, he is a gifted punchy climber and well suited to the Ardennes Classic type of races.

Andrew Talansky – Garmin Sharp: It’s been a good year for Talansky, showing his climbing skills throughout the year. He should have no issues with the punchy course and is faster than he is given credit for at the finish.

Cadel Evans – BMC: The wily veteran still knows how to win, as he showed recently in the Tour of Alberta. He will need the race to be hard so that the better sprinters are dropped before the finish.

Filippo Pozzato – Lampre-Merida: Pozzato comes into the race on a high, after winning the GP Ouest France-Plouay, his biggest win in years. He is a better bet for the Quebec race.

Bjorn Leukemans – Vacansoleil-DCM: The veteran Belgian has finished 6th in each race in the past, and showed decent form in the Ardennes this year with 3rd in De Brabantse Pijl and 7th in the Amstel Gold Race.

Fabian Wegmann – Garmin-Sharp: The German has finished in the top 10 in all three editions of the Quebec race and will want to improve upon that but will need to attack from distance to do so.

Jan Bakelants – RadioShack-Leopard: A punchy climber who impressed when he won a stage at the Tour de France.

Borut Bozic – Astana: Bozic was enjoying a fine classics campaign before injury struck and seems to be riding his way into some strong form, if he is climbing well he has a chance in Quebec.

Tom-Jelte Slagter – Belkin: Another punchy climber who is capable of winning on the uphill finishes in these races.

Ion Izagirre – Euskaltel-Euskadi: Izagirre has taken a step forward in 2013 with some strong performances on punchy terrain, particularly in the Tour de Pologne.

Chris Froome – Sky Procycling: Building form for the Worlds, Froome will target a strong showing in Montreal.

Alberto Contador – Saxo-Tinkoff: Another who is here looking for form and fitness ahead of the World Championships, if he is in better shape than expected he could feature.

Richie Porte – Sky Procycling: Much like his team leader, Porte will likely feature strongly in Montreal, working on his form ahead of the Worlds.

Matti Breschel – Saxo-Tinkoff: Despite not having a great season, Breschel remains a fast finisher who copes well with hills and that makes him a contender

Damiano Caruso – Cannondale: Caruso is the strongest climber on the Cannondale squad here and is an option in Montreal should Sagan be dropped.

Pierrick Fedrigo – FDJ: The veteran French rider is a punchy climber but has not had a 2013 to remember, he would be dangerous should a break stay away.

Francois Parisien – Argos-Shimano: He finished 10th in Quebec last year but will be second fiddle to Degenkolb here.

Sergei Chernetckii – Katusha: An impressive young climber, he copes well with the steep stuff and is willing to go on the offensive.

Kristijan Durasek – Lampre-Merida: Durasek won Tre Valli Varesine 3 weeks ago. A long race, with a bumpy parcours and an uphill finish, it was an indication of good form ahead of these races.

Fabio Aru – Astana: The young Italian climber has flashed his potential this season, he probably isn’t ready to compete for the win but he is still one to keep an eye on in Montreal.

Bryan Coquard – Europcar: This is probably a year or two too early for Coquard but he is a gifted young sprinter and one to keep an eye on.

Enrico Gasparotto – Astana: The winner of the 2012 Amstel Gold Race must be considered a candidate on this sort of terrain, however his form has been mostly awful in 2013, definitely a long shot.