2014 Amgen Tour of California preview

The 9th edition of the Tour of California once again looks like an excellent race, though hopefully the temperature won’t be quite as punishing, it looks set to be warm, but nowhere close to extreme, but you never know if those predictions will prove accurate.

The race starts with a certain sprint finish in Sacremento, before the 20.1km ITT on day two which will see the race lead change hands. The third stage offers the first summit finish of the race on Mount Diablo, last year Leopold Konig (NetApp-Endura) took stage honours there, after attacking on the steeper sections towards the top of the climb. There is likely to be a third leader in as many days after the climb, but the time gaps between the favourites shouldn’t be huge.

The GC contest should take a break on stage four as the sprinters return to the fore, there are a couple of bumps in the road but nothing to serious. Stage five should see yet another sprint, but this time the presence of the San Marcos climb close to the finish will likely see a reduced group reach the finish, anyone dropped will have to work hard to chase back on in time for the sprint.

Stage six features the second summit finish of the race and should prove decisive for the GC competition. Much like Mt. Diablo on stage three, the Big Pines Highway Climb is steepest at the top, the final 2.5km average 7.4%, however peaking at 2071m the altitude is almost double that of Mt. Diablo, and it is the last chance for the best climbers to really excel. Stage seven will probably result in the final sprint in the race, there are some climbs which could prove problematic for some sprinters, but only if a team decides to set a punishing pace. Finally the race finishes with a circuit race in Thousand Oaks, there is a significant climb in the course which caused many splits when it was used in 2010, Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) won that day and I’d expect a similarly strong rider to excel this time as well.

 

Team Guide (not all line-ups are confirmed so some riders mentioned may not be there)

BMC Racing Team: Expect Peter Stetina to mount a strong challenge for the GC as the team try to defend the title Tejay van Garderen won in 2013. Stetina is a strong climber and will relish the opportunity to ride for himself, after spending most of his career as a strong climbing domestique. Taylor Phinney will target the ITT, while Thor Hushovd and Greg Van Avermaet can mix it in the tougher sprint finishes.

Garmin-Sharp: As usual Garmin-Sharp have brought a strong team with many options. Tom Danielson is the most experienced leader, but he has been struggling with illness recently which may mean the team turns to the strong time trialist Rohan Dennis or one of last year’s stars Janier Acevedo. With Alex Howes, who looked strong in the Ardennes, and Lachlan Morton available the team have a plethora of attacking options.

Omega Pharma-Quick Step: With Mark Cavendish showing good form in the Tour of Turkey, and a team packed full of powerful rider, OPQS are here to dominate the sprints. Tom Boonen may be an option on the tougher sprint finishes if Cavendish can’t hold in the lead group.

Trek Factory Racing: If this is to be the final appearance of Jens Voigt in the Tour of California, expect him to try and go out with another long distance attack. Young Danny van Poppel will seek to get involved in the sprints, and Matthew Busche could have the chance to compete as a leader, but the most interesting rider may be Jesse Sergent who produced a terrific time trial in the Tour de Romandie and will want to follow that up with victory in stage two.

Team Sky: It seems that Team Sky are coming to California to race for Bradley Wiggins, he certainly hasn’t been shy about his desire to compete for the overall win here. With a flattish ITT in his favour, Wiggins’ prospects rest entirely upon how well he copes with the two summit finishes. The fact that they have relatively constant gradients for most of their duration will help, but he could struggle to keep in touch on the steep upper slopes.

Orica GreenEDGE: It’s been a quiet enough start to the season for Matthew Goss, he has finished second twice but had precious few opportunities to chase his first win of the season. He will get that opportunity here, but may find his best chance comes if he can survive in the front group on stage five, in the hope that Cavendish does not. Adam Yates was the star of the Tour of Turkey, but the team may look to Johan Esteban Chaves to lead their GC challenge here.

Cannondale: Once again Cannondale are headed by the phenomenal Peter Sagan. He will likely struggle to match Cavendish in the normal sprints, but can certainly survive the climbs to make it to the more difficult sprint finishes, where he excels.

Belkin Pro Cycling: Laurens Ten Dam is seeking to recapture the form that took him to 13th overall in the Tour de France last year, so that he can challenge for the GC here. He isn’t the only option for Belkin, sprinter Moreno Hofland has enjoyed terrific success so far this season and could surprise, while Lars Boom is always a dangerous man if he spots an opportunity to go on the offensive.

Giant-Shimano: Versatile German sprinter John Degenkolb will be the teams main focus in the race, at his best on the tougher finishes, Degenkolb should be able to contest the majority of he finishes in the race. The team are letting Daan Olivier, Lawson Craddock and Chad Haga compete to be the leader by seeing who has the best form early in the race.

UnitedHealthcare: Lucas Euser will once again give them a solid leader, but the teams most consistently impressive rider so far this season has been Marc de Maar, look for him to feature in the breaks once again. More intriguing would be the inclusion of the talented Colombian climber Isaac Bolivar, 3rd overall in the Tour de Langkawi earlier in the season, it will be fascinating to see how he copes in this company.

NetApp-Endura: No Leopold Konig this year, the Czech rider has been struggling with injury, however a resurgent Tiago Machado alongside Jose Mendes will ensure the team is strong in the mountains once again.

Novo Nordisk: The all-diabetic team will likely look to Javier Megias and Andrea Peron for their greatest chances of success. Megias climbs well enough to be in contention on all terrain and is a likely choice for a break on a hilly stage. Peron is the team sprinter, while outmatched in this company; they will hope he can get himself involved in the bunch finishes

Optum p/b Kelly Benefit Strategies: With Ryan Anderson for the sprint stages, American TT Champion Tom Zirbel for the ITT, and Carter Jones to attack on the tougher stages, Optum seem to have someone for every terrain. Jones won the mountains classification in this race last year, and comes into the race in terrific form after claiming the overall victory in the Tour of the Gila.

Jelly Belly p/b Maxxis: The everlasting Freddie Rodriguez and Jakob Rathe give the team options for the sprints, though whomever they choose will struggle against this competition. Veteran Australian climber Matthew Lloyd will enjoy the opportunity to ride for himself after many years as a domestique on top tier teams.

Jamis-Hagens Berman: Having lost Janier Acevedo after his superb 2013 season, Jamis-Hagens Berman didn’t panic; they simply went out and signed talented climbers Gregory Brenes and Daniel Jaramillo to replace him. 23 year old Colombian Jaramillo has started his career with the team well with a double stage inning performance at the Tour of the Gila, while Costa Rican Brenes was 2nd overall in the same race. Brenes looked impressive during the Tour of Utah last season, and was even better in the USA Pro Cycling Challenge just after that, finishing 6th overall, he will likely be hoping for a top 10 performance in his race.

Bissell Development Team: As always the former Bontrager team have several talented young riders but they may not be ready to make an impression on this years race. For the sprints they will look to Nicolai Brøchner, who looks to have an impressive future as a sprinter for the classics. While James Oram, Clement Chévrier and Tao Geoghegan Hart give the team options for the more mountainous stages, though only Oram has any experience of this level of racing.

 

 

Clash on the Cobbles Update #2: De Ronde

Before talking about an exciting edition of the Ronde van Vlaanderen, it’s important to note the terrible accident that occurred when Johan Vansummeren crashed at speed into an elderly spectator. The lady in question is reportedly in acritical but stable condition in hospital with head injuries. The victim had been one of several spectators on a traffic island that seemed to be placed immediately after a fast bend, the peloton sped past on both sides but unfortunately Vansummeren collided with the traffic island which caused the sickening collision. Hopefully the injuries aren’t as severe as reported and she can make a good recovery, but before talking about the race our first thoughts must be with her, her family and also Vansummeren who was clearly shaken up by the serious nature of the accident.

The race itself provided terrific entertainment and featured an awful lot of action, this year’s modified route was a definite improvement over the one used in the last two years, I still miss the Muur van Geraardsbergen and would prefer less flat at the end, but this was a good parcours. As will always be the case much of the action came in the form of crashes and pile ups, with half the peloton seeming to hit the deck at least once. Lotto Belisol suffered a ridiculous number of crashes and will be frantically trying to assess which riders are capable of racing again next Sunday, with the teams highest placed finisher here being Tony Gallopin who hit the deck at least twice during the race but soldiered on. Speaking of soldiering on, special mention must be made of Stijn Devolder (Trek Factory Racing) who was involved in at least three crashes, appearing to injure his arm/shoulder in one of them and landing on that injured shoulder after the next crash. Devolder gave a huge effort to keep racing and try and get back to the front to help his team leader Fabian Cancellara, he was unable to do so but gains so much respect for making the effort and also for finishing the race while in obvious pain, Chapeau.

At the end of some exciting and chaotic action the race came down to four riders, Greg Van Avermaet (BMC), Stijn Vandenbergh (Omega Pharma-Quick Step), Fabian Cancellara (Trek) and Sep Vanmarcke (Belkin). Van Avermaet had made a big attack an Vandenbergh had covered it, sitting on the BMC riders wheel and waiting for the arrival of more of his team, but that never happened. Instead it was Cancellara and Vanmarcke who bridged across after breaking the rest of the favourites on the Oude Kwaremont, they were the strongest riders. The four leaders worked together now, each knowing that their teams chances of victory depended upon them remaining clear of the chasing Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) who was showing superb form. The powerful Vandenbergh isn’t known for his sprinting prowess so he tried to kick clear in the final 4kms, that move set off a chain reaction of attacks and counter attacks, but the four leaders were all together again with 700m to go. From there they played a patient game, each waiting for the others to pounce and in the end it was the first to open the sprint who won as Cancellara kicked inside the final 200m and was simply too strong for the rest. Van Avermaet took second and Vanmarcke 3rd but the day belonged to Spartacus who claims his 3rd victory in De Ronde.

Looking ahead to next week it is clear that Fabian Cancellara will once again be the man to beat with Sep Vanmarcke looking to be the only rider in the same sort of shape. Cancellara used his experience of winning these races to his advantage yesterday, showing superior tactics in the closing kilometres by forcing Vanmarcke to close the gap to the other leaders and saving his own strength for the sprint. Van Avermaet and Vandenbergh are also clearly in great shape right now and given the way he tried to chase them down, Kristoff has carried his Milan-San Remo winning form into these races. Daryl Impey (Orica GreenEDGE) and Taylor Phinney (BMC) each made a huge impression in the main break. In Phinney’s case it bodes very well for Paris-Roubaix, his early season form was curtailed by crashes and illness but his hugely impressive debut showing in Ronde van Vlaanderen demonstrates that he has found that form again and I think this could be the year where he lasts into the lead group at the business end of Paris-Roubaix.

While Cancellara took a terrific victory today, and takes that superb form into Paris-Roubaix, it is arguable that he was even more impressive in the finale of De Ronde in 2013 and he was only able to win Paris-Roubaix by the narrowest of margins a week later, so there is hope for the others. Peter Sagan (Cannondale) wasn’t strong enough to follow Cancellara on the Oude Kwaremont and could only finish 16th yesterday, he obviously has the talent to win these races in the future but doing so requires experience so it is hard to see him being able to challenge in Paris-Roubaix when he has only raced there once before, back in 2011.

This edition of the Tour of Flanders was clearly a disappointment for the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team, they finished with Vandenbergh in 4th, Niki Terpstra 6th, Tom Boonen 7th, Zdenek Stybar 18th and Iljo Keisse a little further back in 26th, impressive strength in depth but 4th wasn’t good enough for the Belgian team. While it is easy to use hindsight to second guess their tactics, the simple truth was that none of their big name riders were able to stick with Cancellara when he made his move, the strongest rider won the race. I actually think the team employed the right tactic in the second half of the race, using their numbers to cover every significant move and relying on Boonen in particular to follow Cancellara and Sagan. It was designed to ensure that whatever happened the team would have a rider in the finale, it was just unfortunate for them that it was Vandenbergh in a four man sprint at the end, it wasn’t the sort of finish that would suit him.

However OPQS go into Paris-Roubaix with a little more desperation and with the knowledge that Cancellara is stronger right now than their strongest riders, so I expect to see a totally different tactic on display. Rather than using their strength in depth to cover the moves, they need to initiate the moves, go on the offensive, isolate Cancellara and force him to work to close down their dangerous riders. There is no point in holding back Boonen, Terpstra and Stybar if they aren’t sure to be able to remain with Cancellara, though the absence of the hellingen will make them harder to drop. Boonen’s preparation has clearly been hampered by personal tragedy, but he wasn’t that far off being strong enough yesterday and Paris-Roubaix will see him in even better shape again, so he has a chance, but the team needs to go on the front foot.

 

 

Stars of 2014: Alexander Kristoff – Katusha Team

 

This was always going to be an important season in the career of Alexander Kristoff. The 26 year old Norwegian sprinter is approaching what should be his peak years and was finally getting the opportunity to really test his limits. A Tour de France as a supported sprinter awaits in July, an opportunity earned after six top 6 finishes in last year’s race without support, but Kristoff has already struck gold this season with a terrific victory in Milan-San Remo, one of cycling’s Monuments and a career defining race to win.

Winning a Monument is never easy; they are longer and tougher than most other races and attract the strongest riders. In the case of La Classicissima di Primavera the difficulty comes from length, 294km, and in some seasons the awful weather, and that was definitely the case this year as that combination of distance and conditions whittled the peloton down to less than 30 riders by the time they reached the finish. Some terrific work from Luca Paolini brought Kristoff to the final corners, then he showed considerable poise by patiently waiting for the right moment to open up his sprint and finish it off with aplomb.

Kristoff’s excellent speed after such a difficult day in the saddle was the key to victory, he wasn’t the only fast finisher in that final group, but he was the only one with real speed in the legs at that stage of the race. A fact Kristoff acknowledged in a Katusha press release “A sprint after 300 km is different from one after 200 km. Normally I don’t lose much power even on a long stage. I saw Cavendish, who started his sprint, so I started mine, too. For the last 150 meters I had super power and was able to hold the others off. I was super happy when I saw I’d taken the win. It was the best moment in my life. Right now I’m enjoying this moment and I’m super happy. It’s the highlight of my career“.

Kristoff is a powerful rider with a fast finish but he isn’t a pure sprinter, he climbs well for such a big and powerful rider and combined with his obvious toughness that gives him a strong skill set for some of the biggest one-day races in the sport and means he will generally be in contention when the purer sprinters are not. He gained his first World Tour victory in 2013 with a stage win at the Tour de Suisse, the stage ended with a tough uphill sprint and Kristoff finished ahead of Peter Sagan and Arnaud Demare. Kristoff also gave notice of his ability to cope with the tougher races, following up an 8th place finish in a frozen, but truncated Milan-San Remo, with 4th and 9th place finishes in Ronde van Vlaanderen and Paris-Roubaix respectively.

Regardless of what else he does this season, winning Milan-San Remo makes 2014 a successful year for Alexander Kristoff, but I suspect there is much more to come from the talented Norwegian.

2014 Tirreno-Adriatico: Notes from stage six

Cavendish wins at a canter

In the end it was too easy for Mark Cavendish (Omega Pharma-Quick Step), Marcel Kittel (Giant-Shimano) had been dropped, the Lotto Train crashed out and Cavendish found himself with an arm chair ride to the line at the rear of a fine OPQS sprint train. Cavendish won by such a margin that Alessandro Petacchi, his final lead out man, finished 2nd, despite freewheeling most of the last 100m with his arms in the air in celebration. Peter Sagan (Cannondale) took 3rd but it was poor reward for the work that Cannondale had done to drop Kittel, a curious move from the team since the presence of Cavendish and Andre Greipel (Lotto Belisol) in the peloton meant that Sagan was still going to be an outsider for the win. Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo) finished safely in the pack and holds onto his Blue Jersey and a sizeable lead.

Is something wrong with Kittel?

Everyone can have a bad day and Kittel certainly had one today, suffering inside the final 70km when the Cannondale team raised the pace over two relatively small climbs, ultimately being dropped from the peloton and missing out on the sprint finish. The Giant-Shimano team swarmed to support their superstar sprinter, putting immense effort into bringing him back to the peloton and coming close to succeeding. It was a surprising development, Kittel is large for a cyclist and not a known climber, but he has certainly coped with more difficult climbs than those in the past. As a one off event I’d say it was just a bad day on the bike, everyone has those, but coming less than a month after quitting the Vuelta a Andalucia while feeling weak, it’s a worrying sign. It could be simple coincidence, but it could also be indicative some underlying issue which is limiting his strength, whether that is a tough to shift infection, a virus, a parasite or something else. Hopefully that is not the case but struggling in two races a month apart is never good.

Looking ahead to stage seven

Stage seven: San Benedetto del Tronto – San Benedetto del Tronto 9.1km
Image from http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/TirrenoAdriatico/en/

The race finishes with a flat time trial in San Benedetto del Tronto, short enough that the time gaps won’t be huge, but long enough to matter. There is nothing here to concern Contador and only crashing out could threaten his lead and the only GC interest is whether Jean-Christophe Peraud (AG2R) can gain enough time to move into the top three. The battle for the stage itself will be intriguing, there are plenty of time trialists amongst this field of riders and these shorter courses aren’t just for the specialists, however there are several obvious favourites for the stage. Tony Martin (OPQS) won this stage last year, when Adriano Malori (Movistar), who has started this season strongly, lost out by just 0:06. Fabian Cancellara (Trek) is hitting form ahead of the classics and cannot be discounted and Luke Durbridge (Orica GreenEDGE).

2014 Tirreno-Adriatico: Notes from stage three

Positioning is king

For most of the day the action on stage three resembled that from stage two. A break went away, the peloton kept them under control and reeled them in when the time came, with 35km to go one of the breakaway companions decided to go it alone, yesterday it was Alex Dowsett (Movistar), today it was Bjorn Thurau (Europcar). With the peloton motoring behind Thurau never had much chance of succeeding, but he gave it a real go, putting up a substantial fight and only admitting defeat on the final lap of the finishing circuit. Once he was caught there was a tussle for control of the peloton, everyone wanted to get to the front so that their option for today’s stage was well positioned when they hit the finishing ramp. Tinkoff-Saxo, BMC and Omega Pharma-Quick Step were particularly to the fore, and it was the latter, in the form of Tony Martin who drove the race onto the climb, stringing everyone out in the process; if a rider wasn’t near the front when Martin took up the pace, then they were out of the reckoning.

Once past the opening section of the ramp the gradient wasn’t that tough, but the street was rough and narrow, there was no way back for those stuck behind. Philippe Gilbert (BMC) was the first to open a sprint, going very early to try and open enough of a gap to remain ahead of the fast finishers, however the finish wasn’t tough enough to suit Gilbert and he crossed the line in 4th. However it definitely suited Peter Sagan (Cannondale) as he took Gilbert’s wheel then exploded past him in the final 100m, a fine win for the Slovak and confirmation that he is approaching the form he needs ahead of the classics. Michal Kwiatkowski (OPQS) and Simon Clarke (Orica GreenEDGE) were 2nd and 3rd respectively, each gaining small time bonifications, a result that bolsters Kwiatkowski’s GC aspirations. As expected there were small time gaps amongst the finishers, with Kwiatkowski the sole GC contender to make the first recognised group, his team mate Rigoberto Uran was in the second group 0:04 down, Alberto Contado (Tinkoff-Saxo) and Richie Porte (Sky) made the third group 0:06 behind, while Nairo Quintana (Movistar) was in the fourth, 0:16 down.

Looking ahead to stage four

Stage four: Indicatore (Arezzo) – Cittareale (Selva Rotonda) 244km
Image from http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/TirrenoAdriatico/en/

The toughest climbing stage of the year so far, the first 115km are relatively flat but the remaining 130km are anything but. Even before they reach the final climb the peloton will have scaled two significant categorised climbs, the Forca de Cerro, 9.6km at 4.6% with steeper ramps about 1/3rd of the way up, and the Forca Capistrello, 16.4km at 6.7% with ramps throughout and some exceeding 10%. The riders will crest the Capistrello with 62km remaining so it is highly unlikely to be the source of the winning move, but it will certainly do a lot of damage. At 1535m the finish at Selva Rotonda is the highest point of the race, the climb itself is 14km long at 5.4% and like all the best climbs it is steepest at the top, reaching 10% in the closing kilometres. A brute of a stage that will really test the form of the contenders and shake up the GC.

2014 Tirreno-Adriatico: Notes from stage two

A terrific win for Matteo Pelucchi

Not many people had Matteo Pelucchi (IAM Cycling) down as a possible winner for this stage, but he took his chance with aplomb landing the biggest result of his career in the process. Everything had seemed to be going to plan until a crash with 2.5km to go effectively took Marcel Kittel (Giant-Shimano) and Mark Cavendish (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) out of the sprint. Though Cavendish himself didn’t go down, his sprint train was disrupted and he couldn’t get back in place to contest the sprint, he does however retain the Blue Jersey. With the peloton a little disorganised it was FDJ who took up the pace setting, driving the bunch towards the line and setting up Arnaud Demare for the sprint. Demare launched his sprint early, as did Peter Sagan (Cannondale), but Pelucchi waited, he had found Andre Greipel’s (Lotto Belisol) wheel and waited until the boxed in German finally got going before launching his own sprint, bursting past the rest for the win. Demare was 2nd and Greipel 3rd, while Sagan faded a little to finish 5th after Sam Bennett (NetApp-Endura) sped past him to take 4th.

 

Crashes take their toll

A collision with 2.5km to go left Marcel Kittel on the deck and disrupted the Omega Pharma-Quick Step sprint train, in one fell swoop hobbling two of the three favourites for the stage victory. Kittel took it a little hard as you can see below

Kittel later apologised on twitter, it doesn’t look good for your sponsor when you decide to bounce one of their leading products off the ground, though his frustration was understandable.

That wasn’t the only significant crash as several riders ended up on the side of the road 11km earlier, with Jacopo Guarnieri (Astana), Bart de Clercq and Jurgen Van den Broeck (both Lotto Belisol) seeming to come off worst. Sadly for Van den Broeck it was another knee injury, it’s just been diagnosed as a deep laceration for now which is forcing him out of the race. Hopefully further tests confirm that to be the extent of the damage, after suffering a serious knee injury last season he could do with catching a break.

Looking ahead to stage three

Stage three: Cascina – Arezzo 210km
Image from http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/TirrenoAdriatico/en/

Another sprint stage of a sort, just not one that is likely to suit the specialist sprinter en mass. The run in is bumpy and the final kilometre is a 5% ramp, with a short section at 11% at the bottom of the ramp. It could suit a lot of riders, whether they are tougher sprinters, like Arnaud Demare, sprinters who can climb a bit like Gerald Ciolek (MTN Qhubeka), uphill finish specialists like Philippe Gilbert (BMC) or phenomenon’s like Peter Sagan and Michal Kwiatkowski (Omega Pharma-Quick Step).

Clash on the Cobbles Update #1: Boonen is back

March is here and the cobbled races are upon us, last weekend saw two entertaining appetisers but the main courses are still some way off. Back at the start of January I published this article as an early preview of the classics and now it’s time to look at how kind the early season has been to the likely main protagonists.

Coming off an awful season Tom Boonen (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) needed to get off to a good start in 2014, both to build racing fitness ahead of the classics and to boost his morale. He certainly achieved that, looking solid in his season debut in the Tour de San Luis, terrific in the Tour of Qatar where he won twice, and terrific again when winning Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne. There may have been a couple of slight hiccups along the way, such as suffering from the bad weather during Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but nothing major, so it’s mission accomplished and in truth I don’t think Boonen could have wished for a better build up to the classics. Now he has a brief rest before Paris-Nice and after that the big races come thick and fast.

For Fabian Cancellara (Trek Factory Racing) it has been a more difficult start to the season after illness and injuries from a crash while training acted to limit his off-season workouts. As a result he started the 2014 season playing catchup which wasn’t ideal, though it wasn’t disastrous either and so long as he avoids further set backs there is no reason he can’t be at his best for the Ronde van Vlaanderen. Although Cancellara wasn’t at his best, he did get some tough kilometres of racing in his legs by riding the Dubai Tour, and Tours of Qatar and Oman, which will stand him in good stead. With Strade Bianche coming up this week and Tirreno-Adriatico after that we can expect to see a more prominent Cancellara as he should be closing in on his best form by the end of the latter race.

It has felt like a quiet start to the season for Peter Sagan (Cannondale) but in truth it’s no different from usual, in 2012 and 2013 he took his first win at the Tour of Oman and that was the case this season. However that win came after several podium finishes as Sagan lost out to Sacha Modolo in Argentina, Marcel Kittel twice in Dubai and Andre Greipel in Oman before finally breaking his duck, doing so after a stage full of climbing when the other fast men have been left behind. I find the near misses reassuring, Sagan is not a pure sprinter and hasn’t spent the off-season working towards becoming one, instead he has been training for the classics, working on his strength and stamina, and that should let him come to the fore over the next six weeks.

Sep Vanmarcke (Belkin) opted for a lighter start to the season, with only five racing days in the Volta ao Algarve prior to the start of the Belgian races. Yet that light schedule certainly hasn’t done him any harm as he looked as strong as anyone when finishing 4th in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and 3rd in Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, two performances that suggest he will be a force to be reckoned with when it matters in the bigger races ahead.

Conversely Zdenek Stybar was quiet in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, I had expected him to be stronger with the race coming after a strong showing in the Tour of Oman, however I expect him to find better form in a few weeks time. Stybar started the season in terrific shape with his hugely impressive victory at the cyclo-cross World Championships, so a little lull in form isn’t unexpected. He will of course play second fiddle to Boonen for Omega Pharma-Quick Step but along with Niki Terpstra and Stijn Vandenbergh he helps make Omega Pharma-Quick Step the team to watch for the cobbled races.

The opening weekend in Belgium was not at all kind to the BMC team, with Thor Hushovd and the in-form Taylor Phinney crashing out and ending up getting treatment in hospital, thankfully neither is seriously injured and both are expected to be back for Paris-Nice, but it’s not ideal. Meanwhile Greg Van Avermaet suffered in the cold and ran out of steam at the end of Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, where he lost to the impressive Ian Stannard (Team Sky) who once again shows he is dangerous on the pave. Of the rest Arnaud Demare (FDJ) and Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) have looked as dangerous as anyone, while the young riders from Topsport Vlaanderen-Baloise have shown they are going to get involved when it counts.

King of the Sprints 2014 Update #2: It’s all about Kittel

The Dubai Tour had promised much, but the anticipated showdown between Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish never materialised, as the Manx sprinter failed to contest the finishes leaving Kittel to claim them with apparent ease. It’s a terrific early season bonus for the German Kittel, three wins to boost the confidence and take the sting out of the mistakes which cost him in the Santos Tour Down Under.

Stage two saw the first bunch sprint of the race; Omega Pharma-Quick Step hit the front very early and drove the peloton throughout the final 10km. The move may have come too early as they had little support left for Cavendish as the race approached the final kilometre, where he would find himself boxed in and out of contention. The race descended into chaos with each sprinter left to fend for themselves and little in the way of an organised lead out. In that scenario there was no answer to the speed of Marcel Kittel, who raced away for the win leaving Peter Sagan, Taylor Phinney, Juan Jose Lobato and Giacomo Nizzolo to trail in behind him.

The third stage was contested by a more select group after a lumpier run had dislodged much of the peloton. For a while it seemed that Peter Sagan would open his account for 2014, however Marcel Kittel surprised almost everyone by making into the front group and was simply too fast for the others, with Lobato taking second place ahead of Sagan. The run is wasn’t that tough but it still pushed Kittel to the limit as can be seen from the tweet below.

So proud on that second win here in @dubaitour! @tgiantshimano kept me in a great position before the climb & from there on I went DEEP!

— Marcel Kittel (@marcelkittel) February 7, 2014

Stage four finished in another bunch sprint and once again Kittel was victorious. This time there was little chaos in the final kilometre as Giant-Shimano hit the front and led Kittel to victory, and while they may have mistimed it slightly the German was peerless, leaving Mark Renshaw, Andrea Guardini, Roberto Ferrari and Aleksandr Porsev fighting for second place. Everything went smoothly for Kittel but Sagan and Cavendish were having days from the other end of the spectrum with collisions and mechanical issues taking them out of contention in the final 5km. For Cavendish it was a moment to be thankful that no long lasting damage was done, for Peter Sagan it was a little more frustrating.

 

The ease with which Kittel won in Dubai demonstrates that he really is growing into his status as one of the elite sprinters and potentially the very best around, though that last part requires much more rigorous testing. It is important to note that winning in February in Dubai is not the same as doing so in France in July, so these wins must be kept in perspective as demonstrated by the way that Mark Cavendish was quite relaxed about his mishaps, he won’t be if they happen in the bigger races.

The Etoile des Besseges featured three bunch sprints with some legitimately talented sprinters seeking to get their seasons off on the right foot. The first went to Nacer Bouhanni who finished ahead of John Degenkolb and Yauheni Hutarovich. The following two were won by Bryan Coquard, one of my rider watch list, repeating his double win in last years race. One was claimed ahead of Bouhanni and Degenkolb while the other came on an uphill sprint where he finished ahead of Degenkolb and Tony Gallopin.

Meanwhile on Mallorca, Sacha Modolo has continued his fine start to his Lampre-Merida career with wins in the Trofeo Palma and Trofeo Ses Salines. The team will be over the moon if he can repeat the trick in a month’s time in Tirreno-Adriatico.

Dubai Tour 2014 Preview

This will be the inaugural edition of the Dubai Tour, a 2.1 race which opens the UCI Asia Tour and precedes the more established 2.HC races in Qatar and Oman. Against a background of financial insecurity and disappearing races, it is good for cycling that new races like this one appearing. Although many fans would rather see races held in more traditional cycling countries, the teams enjoy the financial opportunities that come with racing on the Arabian Peninsula, while the riders are able to get fit for the bigger races ahead while racing in more clement weather than they would experience back in Europe at this time of year. The race itself is comprised of four stages, the opening time trial, two sprint stages and an optimistically named medium mountain stage.

The time trial

The opening time trial is 9.9km in length, with a technical section roughly 3/4 of the way through. There is a world class group of time trial specialists in attendance making this stage the crown jewel of the race, and an early season bonus for those chrono-connoisseurs who love a competitive time trial. The specialists present should include Tony Martin of Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Fabian Cancellara of Trek Factory Racing, BMC’s Taylor Phinney, the Movistar trio of Jonathan Castroviejo, Alex Dowsett and Adriano Malori, the latter of whom has already won against the clock this season. The relatively short distance brings a greater number of riders into contention, whether it’s good time trialists like Peter Velits (BMC), Bob Jungels (Trek), Ion Izagirre (Movistar) of Nelson Oliveira (Lampre-Merida), or fast finishers such as Peter Sagan (Cannondale) or Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg (Giant-Shimano). With so many contenders it will be fascinating to see who can come out on top. I will also be keeping an eye on the two neo-pro riders from my 2014 rider watch list, Lawson Craddock (Giant-Shimano) and Lasse Norman Hansen (Garmin-Sharp). Both have shown they have the talent to race against the clock so it will be interesting to see how they measure up at this stage.

The sprints

Stages two and four look set to end in bunch sprints which will hopefully bring us a head to head clash, figuratively speaking, between Mark Cavendish (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) and Marcel Kittel (Giant-Shimano). Cavendish has yet to sprint in earnest in 2014, in the Tour de San Luis he acted as a lead out man for Tom Boonen as both worked on their form, however he with lead out men Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Renshaw in attendance that looks set to change.  Although Marcel Kittel showed his finishing speed in the criterium race prior to the Tour Down Under, things didn’t go well for him in the race proper, missing out when the peloton split in the wind on stage four, then losing touch with his sprint train on the final stage. Kittel and his Giant-Shimano team will be keen to make amends in Dubai. Of course they won’t be the only interested parties when it comes to the sprints, Peter Sagan, Giacomo Nizzolo (Trek Factory Racing), Roberto Ferrari (Lampre-Merida), Thor Hushovd (BMC), Andrea Guardini (Astana), Juan Jose Lobato (Movistar) and Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp), among others, will all be hoping to take a stage victory.

The hills

The profile below shows a lumpy stage where most of the climbing comes in the final quarter of the race. With nothing more than this profile to go on it is hard to be accurate, but the climbs themselves don’t look tough enough to force a major selection, though it should be enough to take some of the sprinters out of the equation. Though those who can climb decently, such as Sagan, Nizzolo and Janse Van Rensburg may find this stage gives them their best opportunity for a stage victory. If the final climb has some steeper sections towards the top then the dynamic changes as that could provide a springboard for an attack, and with the peak coming just 6.8km from the finish anyone cresting the climb with even a 15-20 second advantage could manage to hold on for the victory. However the margin of victory is unlikely to be large and the terrain won’t be enough to shed all of those who went well in the opening time trial, making that the key stage. With this stage looking to be the only one that ventures into the desert, there is a possibility that crosswinds could also be a factor and the peloton would be wise to be wary of that possibility.

Stage 3: Dubai-Hatta
Image from http://www.dubaitour.com/

 

There are bonus seconds available at the finish but they are quite small with the stage winner getting just 3 seconds taken off their time (except after the ITT). That favours the time trialists but it could also work for the climbing sprinters who could feasibly gain time on all three road stages, if they finish on the podium that is, provided they have a great time trial. Peter Sagan is certainly capable of of finishing on the podium three times and is likely to produce a good time trial as well; if he can nail it on the first stage he has a chance, but it will be tough for him. The desert winds could certainly be a factor on stage three which would add a large dose of chaos to proceedings, the other stages all seem to be mainly urban which should lessen the effect of any wind. At the time of writing the start list isn’t final so the riders I picked out may not all be there. For the latest best guess check out the PCS start list

There are two other 2.1 races this week, the Etoile de Besseges in Southern France and the Herald Sun Tour in Australia, while the Ladies Tour of Qatar kicks off on Tuesday, the cycling season is warming up.

Edited once it was confirmed that there would be time bonifications in the race and that they were quite small.

Stars of 2014: Simon Gerrans – Orica GreenEDGE

Simon Gerrans, a photo by www.instants-cyclistes.fr on Flickr.

The year has started with a bang for Simon Gerrans with victory in the Australian National Championship Elite men’s road race prior to winning the Santos Tour Down Under. Victory in the National Championships came after a lot of strong work from the Orica GreenEDGE team ensured Gerrans came to the finish in the lead group, from there he easily out-sprinted Cadel Evans and Richie Porte to the line. The Tour Down Under was more keenly contested and required Gerrans to draw on his all-round skill set and racing experience to edge home one second ahead of Evans. While not a sprinter per se, the key to the victory ultimately lay in Gerrans finishing speed enabling him to steal some time bonifications, whether at the finish or at the intermediate sprints. It let him pip Andre Greipel to win the opening stage, and finish 2nd the following day, one crucial place ahead of Evans again.

Gerrans, 33, has long been a puncheur of note, and should be considered one of the modern paragons of the style. Like all good puncheur’s he is a strong climber, able to stick with, or close to the purer climbers for an extended period, particularly on the shorter slopes. Also like all good puncheur’s he has a fast finish, capable of out-sprinting most of the riders who can survive those climbs and even taking on the top sprinters when the terrain has been tough enough to sap their legs and take the edge of their speed. It’s the ideal opportunists skill set and he has put it to good use over the years, racking up an impressive array of victories, mostly coming from a breakaway or select group of riders, perfect for many of cycling’s one-day classics. Gerrans career highlight is his Milan-San Remo victory in 2012, he has also won the GP Ouest France-Plouay and GP Cicliste de Montreal and has impressed in the Ardennes Classics, though two 3rd place finishes in the Amstel Gold Race are the closest he has come to winning there. Gerrans has won stages in all three Grand Tours, and last season added a second Tour de France stage victory to his palmares, after a mountainous stage on Corsica where he held off Peter Sagan in the sprint and took the Yellow Jersey.

So what lies ahead in 2014 for Gerrans? Many have suggested Milan-San Remo as an immediate objective, the new hillier finish should be even more suited to Gerrans and when he won it in 2012 he was coming of a similarly impressive start to the season. However with Gerrans aiming for the Ardennes Classics, having already hit form so early in the season, and the team having other strong riders suited to the race, I am not sure he will be the number one option for Orica at Milan-San Remo. Instead look for Gerrans to try and finally win in the Ardennes. A return to the Tour de France will certainly be on the cards but more intriguing is the possibility of Gerrans arriving at the World Championships in Ponferrada on this kind of form, the parcours certainly suits him. Whatever happens going forward Gerrans has already lit up the 2014 season and we can expect to see the Australian Champions jersey to the fore throughout the year.