2013 Vuelta a Espana Preview Two: The Main Contenders

It is hard to breakdown the riders involved in the 2013 Vuelta a Espana at this time because teams have yet to finalize their rosters. It is also hard to assess which riders are here to race for the Overall Classification and which have another agenda. Some are building form for the World Championships, this being a year where a climber has a legitimate shot at becoming the World Road Race Champion, makes that a prime target for many riders and the tough Vuelta course is an excellent preparation for it. Of course the two are not mutually exclusive goals, the Worlds race comes two weeks after after the Vuelta, but peaking too early and carrying too much fatigue is a concern. Riders who are aiming for the Worlds may choose to hold back a little, picking some stages to target for a stage win but making sure they don’t overdo it. Others will aim to peak for the decisive final week knowing they can carry that form through to the World Championships, provided they are still in the GC race at that point there is no reason to avoid competing. Many riders are coming out of breaks and working their way towards fitness, while some are trying to recover from racing in the Tour de France and may have to contend with accumulated fatigue. All in all predicting which riders are likely to excel in the Vuelta is a tricky affair. However we do know who the main contenders are likely to be so it makes sense to start this series of rider previews with them. Once the lineups are more complete I will publish further rider previews.

The 2013 Vuelta a Espana is loaded with uphill finishes, anything from short uphill sprints to extremely difficult mountain top finishes. You can find the stage profiles here http://www.lavuelta.com and I have a preview of those stages here https://procyclingkev.wordpress.com/2013/08/05/vuelta-a-espana-preview-one-stage-by-stage/. The number of uphill finishes and the fact the sole individual time trial stage features climbing, combine to create the ideal course for a pure climber. The only problem stage for the climbers is the opening one with the 27.4km team time trial, however most of the main contenders will have strong teams who can minimize the time they lose on that stage. There are a couple of stages where the race may encounter crosswinds which raises the possibility of echelons splitting the peloton but that is unpredictable. Although GC riders need to be vigilant for danger every day, the  2013 Vuelta a Espana is back loaded, with most of the likely significant days in the second half of the race. The opening TTT is followed by the first mountain top finish of the race, it’s not a tough one compared with the stages ahead but it should combine with the TTT to create some early time gaps in the GC race and leave some riders seeking ways to make up time lost. The next likely significant GC day comes on stage eight with the long climb up the Alto de Penas Blancas, there are some finishes in between where riders can attack the peloton but no significant time gaps would be expected. With riders hoping to combine the Vuelta with the Worlds, and possibly the Giro di Lombardia a week after that, many will hope to use the first 8-9 days to get into form without losing much time. However they had better be ready by the time the race gets to stage ten, the Alto Hazallanas is not for the faint hearted. Any rider who is far from their best is going to lose a lot of time on it, from this point the GC race is properly on.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez – Katusha

It’s not much of an exaggeration to suggest that Joaquim Rodriguez will never have a better chance to finally win a Grand Tour. He is now 34, has finished on the podium of all three Grand Tours, won stages at all three as well, he has won a monument (Giro di Lombardia), and won in the Ardennes (La Fleche Wallonne). Adding to his palmares with victory in the Vuelta would almost make his career complete. Purito has always been a pure climber, at his best on the steep sections where he can kick away from his heavier rivals. In the past he has always been let down by his time trialing, he has improved over time but it remains a weakness, unless of course it involves climbing. If Rodriguez was to design his ideal stage race, I suspect the parcours would have many uphill finishes and a mountainous ITT, just like the 2013 Vuelta.

Joaquim Rodriguez started the Tour de France a little out of sorts, but he had timed it so he would peak towards the end of the race. That final week form let him claw his way onto the podium, if he can find that form again in the Vuelta he stands a great chance of winning. The one worry must be fatigue after racing a tough Tour de France. It isn’t easy to finish three tough weeks of racing and be ready to reprise that effort five weeks later. It often catches a rider out in the final week of the second tour when accumulated fatigue just saps the legs right when the going gets toughest. He won’t have raced at all in the period in between in an effort to recover and avoid that slump during the Vuelta. Of course that could mean he isn’t at his best at the start but that’s alright, so long as he is getting close to his best after the first 8-9 stages.

 

Alejandro Valverde – Movistar

The 2009 winner, Alejandro Valverde was also 2nd overall in 2012 and is well suited to the parcours. A very strong climber with a surprisingly fast finish for a climber, Valverde is also a strong time trialist, though he can be distanced by the elite climbers on the toughest climbs. 2013 hasn’t been a banner year for Valverde, his form has been good enough but he hasn’t been able to land the big results. 2nd in the Amstel Gold Race, 3rd in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 2nd again in the Classica Ciclista San Sebastian. He was looking strong at the Tour de France but misfortune and a questionable decision left him 10 minutes adrift in the winds of stage thirteen and the race was beyond him, though he still finished 8th overall. Once out of contention, Valverde alternated between supporting Nairo Quintana and seeking a chance to pursue a stage win, though he never came close than 3rd. Valverde clearly has talent to contest the overall victory here but he may find it hard to recover from his exertions at the Tour, his legs could well be hampered by fatigue in the final week. Between the Tour and the Vuelta his only race will have been that one day in San Sebastian, it will help with the fatigue but may see him undercooked for the Vuelta.

Alejandro Valverde does have a great skill set for this years World Championship race and it has been suggested that he might hold back in the Vuelta, pick some stages to try and win and work towards the World Championships rather than putting everything into winning the Vuelta. He won two stages in 2012, taking his total to 7 stage wins in the Vuelta and it also netted him the Points Jersey. With so many finishes that suit him he should be one of the favorites to win stages in this race, regardless of whether or not he is riding for the GC. The Movistar squad will have potential alternative GC riders so it is a possibility, though Valverde has been named as team captain and I suspect that he will he will be there to win. It’s possible they will let his form dictate it, in which case, if he is still in close contention after stage, ten then he rides for the GC.

 

Vincenzo Nibali – Astana

The 2010 winner, Vincenzo Nibali comes to the Vuelta while enjoying his greatest season as a cyclist. His Giro d’Italia victory was a tour de force, he was simply dominant and a very deserving winner. That performance was on a similar level to Chris Froome’s at the Tour de France, their expected clash in the 2014 Tour is something to look forward to. He had shown his form beforehand, winning at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Giro del Trentino. He is another superb climber, when on form he can give 2-3 good hard kicks on the climbs, he does like to attack and is a terrific descender. He can also be a strong enough time trialist, and can dominate when it’s not a flat course, he will be a favorite on stage 11.

Nibali has admitted that sponsorship commitments meant he didn’t get as much structured rest and training after the Giro as he would have liked. As a result he arrived at the Tour of Poland a little behind in his preparations, he will have been happy with the difficult course then as it helped get him into condition. He looked stronger at the Vuelta a Burgos, where he contended for the win right up until the final 2km at which point he couldn’t follow Quintana and struggled home almost 50 seconds down. Not ideal perhaps but it was much better than he had looked in Poland and he has the time to find his best for the second half of the Vuelta. After the Giro Nibali immediately began preparing for the World Championships on home soil, it’s his priority for the 2nd half of the season and it could affect his motivation at the Vuelta if he is struggling at all by the mid way point. However peaking for the final week will give him excellent form for the Worlds so I don’t see any real issue. Although he has already completed a Grand Tour this year, the fact that the Giro finished in May and he has had time to recover from that, should make fatigue less of a factor than it is for those coming from the Tour.

 

Samuel Sanchez – Euskaltel-Euskadi

Samuel Sanchez has spent a career riding for the Basque Euskaltel-Euskadi, with their expected demise this represents his final chance to win the Vuelta in their colors. At 35, and facing a search for a new team, it may well be his final chance to win it altogether. A former Olympic Champion, Sanchez has always been a gifted and attacking rider on punchy climbs and he is another terrific descender who doesn’t hesitate to use that to his advantage. While the course is good for him his form may not b equal to the task. He hasn’t been at his best in 2013, he was off the pace in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco and struggled in the Giro where he was only able to finish 12th, though his form was improving towards the end. He did win a stage in the Criterium du Dauphine when he and Jacob Fuglsang went away on the penultimate climb and contested the win, a victory which should both his tactical nous and his ability to look like he was suffering. He returned from a two month break at the Vuelta a Burgos and was again a little off the pace, though that would be expected in his first race back. He has been doing a lot of altitude training and will hope to use the first week of the Vuelta to find his racing legs ahead of the crucial stages. I think he may be included in the list of favorites more on hope than genuine expectation, but if he finds his form he will be fresher than some of his rivals. He could pull off a surprise.

 

Bauke Mollema – Belkin Pro Cycling

For many in cycling, Bauke Mollema appeared to have something of a coming out party at the Tour de France, where he had ridden into a podium place before fading at the end. It was revealed after the race the he had been suffering a little with illness in the last week. It was a continuation of the form he had shown in the Tour de Suisse, where he finished 2nd, and in many ways it was only a surprise because he had always played second fiddle to Robert Gesink. Mollema was free to ride for himself in the Vuelta in 2011 and finished 4th, giving a glimpse of his potential and giving him a fondness for the race. He was always a strong all round performer but he has taken his climbing to another level in 2013, even so I think he could struggle a little on some of the toughest mountain finishes, the lack of a flatter ITT also harms his chances as he would be expected to beat most of his GC rivals on a flatter course. The course may not be in his favor, and he may feel the effects of fatigue, having raced the Tour de France, but his performance there will have his self belief sky high right now and that can compensate a little.

 

Ivan Basso – Cannondale

Ivan Basso is a double Giro winner, 2006 and 2010, but has only competed in the Vuelta once before, finishing 4th in 2009. At 35, and having shown signs of decline in the last two seasons, I’d believed the days of Ivan Basso as a Grand Tour contender were in the past. It certainly seemed that way early in 2013 as he was really struggling to find form prior to the Giro. However he developed a cyst and had to withdraw from the Cannondale squad prior to the start, and was then left out of the Tour de France squad. It gave him an enforced break from training and racing and it seems to have let him finally find some form as he builds up for the Vuelta. In the Tour de Pologne, he was there or there abouts on the toughest climbs in the Dolomites, it was a positive sign. He followed that up with a more impressive performance on the final day of the Vuelta a Burgos, which featured a finish atop the tough Lagunas de Neila. On the climb Basso was able to follow the moves when Nibali, Quintana and David Arroyo went up the road. Inside the final 2 km, Arroyo attacked, Nibali and Quintana countered but Basso was unable to follow, instead he simply set his own pace and powered his way to the finish, passing Nibali and catching Arroyo. It was a very encouraging sign for Basso and his best performance of 2013 so far. Basso is another gifted climber, but unlike most of those already mentioned, he isn’t an explosive one. Instead he is best setting a high pace he is comfortable with and working his way up the climbs. It’s hard to believe that Ivan Basso really is going to roll back the years but he does have one big advantage over the other contenders, he hasn’t competed in a Grand Tour this year. He will be the freshest of all of the competitors and is already showing good form.

 

Sergio Henao – Sky Procycling

It seems you can’t have a Grand Tour race without a Sky rider contending, this time it’s Sergio Henao’s turn. The 25 year old Colombian will go to the Vuelta as team leader, with his compatriot Rigoberto Uran there in support, both riders will have an eye on the World Championships that follow. Henao is an excellent climber, he is at his best on the steeper climbs, as he showed in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco, while winning a stage with a 20% incline at the finish. He showed good form early in 2013, finishing 3rd overall in that race and 2nd in La Fleche Wallonne, he also looked very strong at the start of the Giro but ran out of form half way through. I had the impression that he wasn’t originally scheduled to ride there, but had been added to the team at short notice. Henao finished 14th in the 2012 Vuelta where he was riding in support of Chris Froome, however this time he gets the chance to ride for himself. It will be a good experience for him and with a parcours well suited to him, he is a potential stage winner and a podium contender. Henao had a two month break after the Giro, returning at the Tour de Pologne, where he looked good but with work to do to get his form right. His legs will certainly be fresher than they were in the Giro and he could well be a contender for the overall victory.

 

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