2014 Team Preview – Cannondale Pro Cycling Team

An Italian squad with an American sponsor, Cannondale face a great deal of stress in 2014 as their Slovakian superstar, Peter Sagan, is in the final year of his contract. Sagan is certain to be cycling’s hottest property for the next transfer season, and the onus is on Cannondale to secure extra funding and get a deal done before the window opens. Sagan has reportedly already had expressions of interest from several teams, including the one that Fernando Alonso will be setting up for 2015. Peter Sagan, still only 23, is a prodigiously gifted cyclist who seems to be capable of doing anything he wants to on a bike. He is an excellent sprinter, his speed and strength as a finisher are only exceeded by the few truly elite sprinters, and even then he can beat them when the cards fall right. The majority of his is early success has come from sprints, twice winning the Green Jersey at the Tour de France (2012 & 2013) and claiming seven Grand Tour stage wins in total. 2013 was his best season to date, taking 22 wins and his biggest one-day race victory, Gent-Wevelgem. That victory showed another aspect of Sagan’s skill set, as he possesses the power and strength to excel on the pave of the Cobbled Classics. He followed it up by finishing 2nd to Fabian Cancellara in the prestigious Ronde van Vlaanderen, having finished 5th in 2012. Sagan is also a gifted climber, his ability to be with the leading riders when normal sprinters have been dropped, has been the key to his Green Jersey victories. In 2013, the 3rd stage in the Tour de Suisse, a stage he won, and the 2nd stage in the USA Pro Challenge showed how impressively Sagan can climb. He could develop as a climber by dropping some mass, but at the cost of losing some power/speed in the process, plan for the future perhaps. However I think the time is right for Sagan to go in the other direction; to sacrifice some of that climbing by focusing on his stamina and power, then he can start claiming even more prestigious victories, starting with Milan-San Remo perhaps.

While he is the team’s best rider, Sagan is far from the only talented stage winner on the Cannondale roster. Elia Viviani is an improving sprinter and keen track cyclist; he will again combine both in 2014. A stage win in the Criterium du Dauphine, wearing the leaders Jersey in Paris-Nice, and twice finishing 2nd to Mark Cavendish in the Giro made 2013 his best season yet. Moreno Moser is a good all-rounder who is at his best on the short punchy climbs;he won Strade Bianche in 2013 and looks like he could develop into a rider for the Ardennes in the immediate future. Daniele Ratto is an opportunistic sprinter who is at his best in the uphill sprints; he is a solid climber as he showed when winning from the break, on the Col de la Gallina in the 2013 Vuelta. Moser and Ratto suffer a little because their skill sets overlap with the multi-talented Sagan, which has often meant they had to play second fiddle. While you can’t fault the team for choosing to back Sagan, hopefully Moser and Ratto find their race schedules are increasingly different from Sagan’s. Supporting Sagan and the other stage winners will be a number of good domestiques, including Maciej Bodnar, Kristjan Koren, Ted King, Fabio Sabatini and Guillaume Boivin. With Boivin and Sabatini showing some sprinting speed themselves. Most of that group will be tasked with assisting Sagan throughout the Spring Classics but Cannondale have also made a couple of signings with that in mind. Oscar Gatto makes his belated debut with a World Tour team at the age of 29, a stage winner in the 2011 Giro and winner of the semi-classic Dwars Door Vlaanderen in 2013. Marco Marcato is an opportunistic sprinter, capable of picking up the occasional win and experienced across the classics.

GC options

Ivan Basso had an unhappy time in 2013, showing poor form to start the season, and then having his Giro was derailed before it got started, thanks to a cyst. Basso recovered well and built his form up in time for the Vuelta, where he was sitting at 7th overall before suffering from hypothermia and withdrawing. For 2014 Basso, 36, has once again set his sights on further Giro success, having won the race in 2010 and 2006. Basso wasn’t the only rider who found their Grand Tour plans ruined by that cyst. Damiano Caruso had been set to ride the Tour de France in 2013, but was drafted into the Giro squad as a last minute replacement for Basso, despite not planning for his fitness to peak for the event. Unsurprisingly he struggled to make much of an impact, ultimately finished 19th overall and missed out on his Tour debut. It wasn’t fair on Caruso, but the Italian team needed to go to the Giro with a significant GC rider. Caruso is a good climber and should finally make his Tour de France debut this season, with the license to ride for himself in the mountains. Alessandro De Marchi impressed in 2013, his debut season with the team, frequently getting into breaks in the mountain stages. He managed to hold on from one such break to win the final stage of the Criterium Du Dauphine. Davide Villella joined as a stagiaire in August and impressed throughout the late season Italian race calendar, a promising climber who should have more opportunities in 2014. George Bennett, the 23 year old Kiwi, was impressive on the slopes during the Tour of Utah. He joins from the RadioShack team, bolstering the teams climbing options. The team has also signed 19 year old Matej Mohoric, the winner of the u23 World Championship road race after a display of strong riding and outstanding, if a little unorthodox, descending. Mohoric also showcased his climbing during the Tour de L’Avenir and looks to be a very talented young rider.

2014 outlook

Major success for Peter Sagan would be nice, he is on record as saying he’d accept winning less in 2014 in exchange for winning better races. Having lost out at the end of Milan-San Remo in 2013, Sagan will be incredibly motivated to make up for that in 2014. It’s also important that the team enjoys a more successful Giro d’Italia than last season, which likely means they either need a stage win for Viviani or a strong performance from Basso, preferably both. They must also ensure that the development of riders like Moser, Caruso, Villella and Ratto continues apace, if the team loses Sagan then those are the riders they will need to lean on in 2015.

Interesting Links

http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/sagan_reveals_contract_offer_from_new_alonso_team/

2013 Vuelta a Espana: The Final Report

I almost wasn’t going to write this, I am feeling a little Vuelta fatigue, having posted 27 articles about the race already. However having said I would write one it made sense to do so.

The General Classification

The winner of the 2013 Vuelta a Espana was Chris Horner (RadioShack-Leopard) and there is no denying that he was the strongest climber in the race. Horner was always prominent when the racing went uphill, he won stage 3, fulfilling his pre-race ambition of taking the a stage win and the Red Jersey early in the race. He won again on the extremely difficult Alto de Hazallanas, and was the highest finishing GC contender on both the Pena Cabarga and on L’Angliru. Horners’ excellent performances on those four stages proved crucial in the 2013 Vuelta a Espana, as did finished ahead of Vincenzo Nibali on stage 19.

I have watched cycling for many years, so like many other observers the level of Chris Horners’ performances raised a lot of doubts and skepticism in my mind. Scott O’Raw of the Eurosport Cycling Podcast articulated those concerns in this post http://velocast.cc/the-problem-with-chris-horner. There must be a certain amount of incredulity when a rider who is just shy of his 42nd birthday can become a Grand Tour winner for the first time, doing so after a lengthy injury layoff and after only one week of racing prior to the Vuelta adds fuel to the fire. That build up race, the Tour of Utah, saw Horner produce an excellent ride to win the penultimate stage and take the race lead, it also saw him lose it the next day when he was unable to reproduce the effort from the day before. A perfectly normal physiological response to a long injury layoff. I expected him to be stronger by the start of the Vuelta, he was certainly coming into the race with less fatigue than any of his rivals. However I really didn’t think he could sustain his performance for three weeks, not without more build up racing. I am not going to get into power data, climb times or anything else that has been speculated upon online, I’m not qualified to get into that properly and many others have already done so. Instead I go by what my eyes see and that has lead to the above concerns. Yet that is all they are, concerns, doubts, skepticism, they prove nothing and a rider should not be condemned based on those things alone. I do find it hard to be convinced by what I have seen over the last three weeks, but I have been wrong about many things in my life, so simply trusting my own judgement in matters such as this, isn’t enough. Chris Horners’ performances on the road certainly merited victory and justifiable skepticism aside, he should be able to enjoy that victory unless someone can prove it is unjust. It’s not as though Horners’ rivals produced their best in this race either, all came into the Vuelta having already completed another Grand Tour, none was in their ideal condition. Had they then the result might have been different, Horner could have finished 4th or 5th and would have been lauded for a great effort.

Giro d’Italia winner, and former Vuelta winner, Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) admitted his recovery from the Giro was less than ideal. Travel and sponsorship commitments meant he was out of shape when he began his program for the second half of the season. It’s also true that the Vuelta itself was not his target, though he did want to win it, rather he was aiming at the World Championship road race and the Giro di Lombaria which take place in the next 19 days. Even so, finishing 2nd, having already won the Giro makes 2013 a year to remember for Nibali. Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) and Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) finished 3rd and 4th respectively, each came into the race after a hard fought Tour de France and it showed, as they simply were not at their best. Valverde won the Green Jersey despite not winning a stage, the number of mountain finishes combined with the lack of a dominant sprint team made sure that one of the GC riders would win it. Given Valverdes’ surprising speed at the finish for a climber, he was always a likely contender. Rodriguez won the 19th stage, his 8th stage win in total in the Vuelta a Espana, but he couldn’t find his best form.

Nicholas Roche (Saxo-Tinkoff) also completed the Tour de France, but unlike Valverde and Rodriguez he definitely rode within himself in France, performing as a domestique, often working in the earlier parts of the stage before knocking off the effort. He came into the Vuelta in great shape, slimmer and full of confidence and it showed when he won the 2nd stage and later claimed the race lead for a day. It was a bravura performance from the Irishman, a race full of attacking intent and his reward was his highest ever finish in a Grand Tour. Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R) finished 6th after being caught out by the wind on stage 17, he climbed superbly throughout and produced a surprisingly good ITT performance to keep himself firmly in contention. Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) finished 7th overall, a strong ride from the young Frenchman and a good response to his problems at the Tour de France, like Roche he rode aggressively, even daring to attack on a descent, if he can really sort that out then his future remains very bright. Finally I want to mention the unfortunate Ivan Basso (Cannondale), 2013 has not been kind to the veteran Italian, he was going superbly in this race before the changing weather conditions caught him out, had they not then he would have been a factor in the GC competition.

 

The stage winners

If there was a key to picking the stage winners in this Vuelta, it was to expect the unexpected. In a race with so many uphill finishes, it was always likely that the GC riders would feature prominantly amongst the stage winners. I have already mentioned that Horner won two stages, and Rodriguez and Roche won one apiece. Of the other GC contenders Dani Moreno (Katusha) twice, and Leopold Konig (NetApp-Endura) also won uphill finishes. Moreno has had a strong season, winning La Fleche Wallonne, riding strongly in suport of Purito in the Tour and again here at the Vuelta. He started this race in terrific form before, putting aside personal ambitions to once again work superbly for Rodriguez. Konig had a superb race for NetApp-Endura, riding aggressively in the opening week before winning on the Alto de Penas Blancas, finally finishing 9th overall. It could have been even better had he not suffered briefly from illness and losing some time as a result, but it was a great Grand Tour debut from the Czech rider, we can expect to see much more of him in the future.

Mountain finishes are hard to call in general, you have to factor in how big the break was, who was in the break, what gap did the break have, when did the GC race behind light up etc. In this race the breaks were eventually given a lot of leeway, seven of the final nine stages were won by a member of the break. Two of those were Alexandre Geniez (FDJ) and Vasil Kiryienka (Sky Procycling), both riders were part of large breakaway groups which splintered as the stages progressed. Each also rode away from their companions with considerable distance still to race, holding off the chasing riders and sealing terrific victories. Geniez earned his win with a brilliant and insane descent, distancing the more sensible Andre Cardoso (Caja Rural), Kiryienka took his by riding away from the break and settling himself into a metronomic rhythm all the way the the finish. Fabian Cancellara (RadioShack-Leopard) took the ITT on stage 11, finishing ahead of Tony Martin (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) and potentially gaining a small psychological advantage ahead of a potential clash in the World ITT Championship next week.

There were few sprint stages in this race, and most of those came with some sort of trap which made it harder to bring about the bunch sprint. Given the parcours, few teams brought orthodox sprinters, opting instead for more opportunistic fast men. Those teams were also less committed to the sprints, bringing more versatile squads instead, sacrificing the power and strength necessary to chase down the breaks and drive the peloton to the line. The end result was an almost complete absence of full-on bunch sprints, and a lack of control as the peloton approached the line. A perfect example came on stage 6, when Michael Morkov (Saxo-Tinkoff) took the win from a reduced and tired field of sprinters. Things were under control with 16km to go, Tony Martin was dangling 20 seconds ahead of the peloton and the sprint teams were happy, then Martin raised the pace and the chase was on. Over the next 15km it was all the sprint teams could do to keep Martin within 50m, using up all their support riders in the process. When the sprint came, it came from far out and with the strong men to the fore, rather than the fast ones, Morkov showed great instincts to follow Cancellara then spring out for the win. He doesn’t rank highly among the fastest finishers in the world, but when there is a lack of control sometimes being smart is the path to victory. Zdenek Stybar (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) and Philippe Gilbert (BMC) also trumped the sprinters, taking superb wins on days when the sprinters were expected to shine. Stybar earned his win after he and Gilbert had jumped clear of the peloton, the final 5km of the race were very technical and the sprint teams foolishly let the two escapees reach that point with a small advantage. From there the Stybar and Gilbert rode too well to be caught, with Sybar being the fastest at the finish, taking his first Grand Tour win and adding to his burgeoning reputation. Gilbert won later in the race, the sprint was on an uphill drag and he showed he was hitting his best form by storming past Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky Procycling) for the win, his first while wearing the Rainbow Jersey. Bauke Mollema (Belkin) rescued his teams Vuelta with a highly unlikely win on the stage into Burgos. The peloton had been much reduced by the winds on the road to Burgos, however they reached the finish with a number of fast finishers, Farrar, Richeze, Bole and Boasson Hagen were there. Yet none of those fast riders took up the race in the final 1km, allowing Mollema to steal away for the win. He is fast on the line for a climber, but definitely outmatched in that company, another victory for tactical nous and the spirit of attack.

There were of course other stage winners but they fit better in the next category.

 

Young riders come to the fore

One of my race previews featured the young riders to watch out for in this race. It came with the proviso that many were here more for experience, riders for the future rather than the here and now, some of course did diddly squat, but others shone. Warren Barguil (Argos-Shimano) and Kenny Elissonde (FDJ) are gifted young French climbers who showed their potential when winning stages in this Vuelta. Barguil won two stages, finished in the top 10 on two other uphill finishesand generally won over the cycling public with his attacking style, a magnificent performance from a 21 year old riding his first ever Grand Tour. Elissonde, 22, only had the one stand out day in the Vuelta, it just happened to come on the most difficult and iconic of all, winning on L’Angliru is a landmark victory for any climber, never mind one riding his first Grand Tour. Daniele Ratto (Cannondale) has been making a name for himself as an opportunistic sprinter, one for the uphill sprints, and the tough run ins. A good climber for a fast man but not a likely candidate to win a mountain top finish like he did here, taking victory from a break, atop the Coll de la Gallina and in awful weather. It was a terrific victory.

I felt silly talking about the sprints earlier and leaving out the most impressive sprinter in the field, Michael Matthews (Orica GreenEDGE). The 22 year old won the two bunch sprints that featured in the race, and did so with some ease, clearly the fastest sprinter in this race. A year ago I would have labelled Matthews more of an opportunistic sprinter than a true fast man, but he has impressed me as a sprinter in the last six weeks, showing an impressive burst of speed as well as the strength to hold it. 2014 will be a big year for him as he should get the chance to compete against the elite sprinters at some point and we can see just how competitive he can be. He certainly had the backing of his team here, Orica-GreenEDGE worked hard whenever there was the possibility of a sprint finish, Christian Meier in particular was busy on the front of the peloton.

 

Wild card teams impress

Al three wild card teams did themselves proud in this Vuelta. NetApp-Endura must take the largest plaudits, Leopold Konig starred, and when he struggled Jose Medes was there to nurse him through to the end of the stage. Bartosz Huzarski and Jose Mendes were aggressive in the mountains and several times in the race the team as a whole came to the fore on the front of the peloton. Nicolas Edet was the star for Cofidis, winning the KoM jersey through aggressively getting into breaks. Caja Rural lacked the tangible success of the other two, and will have been disappointed that David Arroyo couldn’t finish in the top 10, but they certainly got themselves noticed. No team was more active in the breaks than Caja Rural, Javier Aramendia, Andre Cardoso, Amets Txurruka and Antonio Piedra were particularly aggressive.

 

The disappointments

Perhaps the biggest disappointment for many cycling fans is that this was the last Vuelta for the Euskaltel-Euskadi team. Thankfully the team is in the process of being bought replaced by another Spanish team, formed by Fernando Alonso, but they won’t be Basque and there will be no more carrots in the peloton. It’s a pity that they didn’t manage a more memorable final Vuelta, no stage wins and their best finisher was Samuel Sanchez who was 8th overall. They were active though, particularly in the mountains where Igor Anton and Egoi Martinez were particularly strong.

Lampre-Merida failed to win a stage or achieve anything of note in the GC, however between Maximiliano Richeze, Diego Ulissi and Michele Scarponi they had six podium finishes. It comes after a similarly winless Tour de France, though they certainly went closer to landing a big result in this race. Similarly Garmin-Sharp failed to achieve any memorable results, they were seriously hampered when GC contender and potential stage winner, Dan Martin, crashed out of the race. However Tyler Farrar did finish the race and must be disappointed with his performances, coming 2nd on the final stage was respectable, but he had more speed than almost all the other sprinters in this race. With the way the team is morphing into a more GC oriented team, failing to win here won’t help him make future Grand Tour squads.

Neither Lotto Belisol nor Vacansoleil-DCM managed to achieve anything of note, though both teams saw their chances of doing so devastated by withdrawals. Lotto Belisol had only four finishers, their chances of success virtually disappearing when Bart de Clercq crashed out, prior to that De Clercq had been climbing with the favorites and looked good. Their best result came through Adam Hansen when he was one of the final survivors from the break, finishing 3rd on the climb of Pena Cabarga. Vacansoleil had even worse luck, with just three riders finishing the race. Juan Antonio Flecha was easily their most impressive performer, seemingly trying to roll back the years with attacks on almost every stage.

Vasil Kiryienka saved the race for Sky Procycling, their two Colombian climbers Sergio Henao and Rigoberto Uran, had been expected to feature as GC riders but just didn’t deliver. I am a big fan of both but they weren’t at their best.

 

Overall I think this was an enjoyable Vuelta, the GC race went right down to the last big stage, and it was a dramatic stage at that. This current formula they seem to use definitely creates some interesting finishes, with most of the action designed to happen towards the end of the race, when television pictures are live. If I have a gripe it’s the lack of variety, there were too many uphill finishes, particularly too many mountain finishes. I’m not arguing for more sprint stages, though another obvious sprint finish would likely have brought a different field of riders to the race. Instead I’d like more imagine finishes ,a descent to the line after a tough climb, a small uphill finish coming after a much bigger climb, with a nice descent in between. A substantial hill 25km from the finish, not enough to make it a GC only selection but favoring the opportunistic stage winners, use the winds more, basically just add more variety to the race. However that’s meant as constructive criticism rather than having a moan, I really enjoyed watching this Vuelta.

2013 Vuelta a Espana: Notes From Stage Twelve

The sprint teams weren’t interested in letting the break win today

The first half of the parcours was favorable to a breakaway today, so long as a decent sized group went away they had a decent chance of making it. However only three riders made the move, Romain Zingle (Cofidis), Fabricio Ferrari (Caja Rural) and Cedric Pineau (FDJ). Astana were delighted with that as Romain Zingle was the most “dangerous” man at more than one hour down, it gave them a free ride today, they would have allowed the break to take a 50 minute advantage. Instead it was the teams with stage wins on their mind who took up the chase, once the break’s lead had stretched out beyond 6 minutes. Orica GreenEDGE came first, then Garmin-Sharp, Argos-Shimano, Lampre-Merida and even Belkin. Their cooperation made it easy to keep the break under control and to slowly reel them in. As the peloton approached the final 35kms, the GC teams started to come to the front, raising the pace and causing the gap to tumble. The race was moving close to the coast and they were worried about crosswinds, getting to the front to avoid getting caught out by a split. They caught the break with a little under 19km to go and with an intermediate sprint pint just ahead, Ivan Basso (Cannondale) and Nicholas Roche (Saxo-Tinkoff) too the opportunity to earn some time bonuses. Basso got a 3 second bonus and Roche a 2 second bonus, they didn’t change anything in the GC for now but every second could count in the final reckoning.

 

BMC and Philippe Gilbert earn an excellent victory

After the sprint point teams started to get themselves organized and Tony Martin (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) took the opportunity to launch a solo attack, quickly gaining a 10 second advantage. Rather than a sprinters team it was BMC who came to the fore, with Philippe Gilbert behind two team mates. The BMC riders were able to check Martin’s progress then close him down, though by that time Gilbert only had one support rider remaining. Orica GreenEDGE and Astana came to the front at this point and brought the race through some nasty technical stuff. As the race approached the finish, Orica, Garmin and Lotto Belisol all had their turn controlling the race but when the race reached the drag to the finish line, it was Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky Procycling) who launched the attack. Boasson Hagen immediately opened a decent gap but he was followed by Philippe Gilbert who showed great form to sweep past the Norwegian and win the stage. It was a terrific victory and a great moment for Gilbert, winning in the Rainbow Jersey for the first time. It was a job well done by his team as well, closing down Tony Martin is never easy, and even after that Gilbert had help getting in position as they reached the finale.

 

Looking ahead to stage thirteen

Stage 13: Valls – Castelldefels
Profile from http://www.lavuelta.com

Like stage twelve this is a stage where the right break could go the distance, there is a lot of bumpy terrain which is to their advantage. Additionally there is no chance of this one finishing in a bunch sprint, so different teams would have to take up the chase. Once again wind could be a factor as much of the stage takes place near the coast, the final 25km pretty much runs alongside the water and if the wind is strong that will be a very dangerous section. With 55km to go, before the race reaches that vulnerable coastal section, they face the punishing Alto del Rat Penat, 4.3km at 10.6%, see below. The middle section is very steep, reaching up to 16% and if anyone is minded to do so, the peloton could be blown apart on this climb. If that happens then we can expect a madcap race to the finish as the various groups try to catch those ahead, and those ahead try to maintain their advantage. If the break has been kept in control then it’s a certainty that this climb will be a launch pad for a rider, or riders trying to jump clear. Edvald Boasson Hagen has shown the inclination to do so, as has Luis Leon Sanchez and both will be men to watch tomorrow. The finish itself is is another tricky one, but there shouldn’t be a large peloton racing towards it which should reduce the risk of crashes. The finish itself has an uphill ramp in the final 350-400m, if the race book can be trusted it looks to be an 8-10% ramp which makes this a stage for the classics finishers, if a reasonable sized group reached the end together. I though Gilbert would target this one, Stybar as well, but it’s going to be a tough stage for any team to control. The composition of the break will be interesting as well, they should be first over the Alto del Rat Penat and that’s a Cat 1 climb. If Nicolas Edet or Amets Txurruka have designs on the KoM Jersey then they might want to take those points, though with three very tough days to follow they may save their energy. It should be a fun one to watch.

 

Alto del Rat Penat
Profile from http://www.lavuelta.com

2013 Vuelta a Espana: Notes From Stage Ten

It was a very tough stage even before the two climbs

You know it’s going to be one of those days when there is a mass pileup in the neutral zone, many riders went down and were nursing injuries throughout the stage, some weren’t able to continue. The biggest casualty form wise was Bart de Clercq (BMC), he had been climbing well and looked to have himself right in the GC mix, he was forced to withdraw with a knee injury. Guillaume Boivin (FDJ), Alberto Losada (Katusha) and Barry Markus (Vacansoleil-DCM) were soon to join him in quitting the race. Thomas De Gendt (Vacansoleil-DCM) and Andrew Fenn (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) were disqualified for holding onto the medical cars for too long, it’s unclear whether either of them had come down in the crash, though it’s tempting to assume they had. It was a punishingly hot day and rather than being able to take it easy, the pace was high from the start, even though the first half of the race involved an awful lot of climbing. It seemed that half the peloton fancied being in the days break so attacks were plentiful from the start, however Katusha were clearly unhappy with the names involved and chased each break down. It was a long time before anyone established a significant advantage, however it was a 21 man group and Katusha weren’t happy until it broke up, with 10 riders going on to form the break of the day. By that time the race was close to the half way point, it really was a rough start to the day and sapped a lot of legs. Of those riders Tomasz Marczynski (Vacansoleil-DCM), Diego Ulissi (Lampre-Merida) and Georg Preidler (Argos-Shimano) lasted longest, but ultimately the day didn’t belong to the break. Another rider suffered today for an entirely different reason, Leopold Konig (NetApp-Endura) who was feeling ill before the stage even began. He slipped off the back of the peloton a couple of times during Katusha extremely long chase, but kept in touch and was able to rejoin them when the pace slowed a little. Konig was dropped again on the Alto de Morachil, however he kept working at it with the help of his team, Jose Mendes in particular, and was able to rejoin the peloton on the descent. Of course he was dropped again on the Alto de Hazallanas, but once again Jose Mendes was there for him and the pair finished 19th and 20th on the stage, 3:07 down. He lost precious time but it was still a colossal effort from him, if he can recover on the rest day and get back to form by Saturday, then he can still ride his way back into the top 10.

 

The Alto de Hazallanas lived up to its billing

Movistar tried to drive the peloton at a high pace as they reached the much steeper second part of the Alto de Hazallanas, but the sheer steepness of the climb soon slowed things down. Still it wasn’t long before a split appeared in what remained of the peloton, with a number of riders losing touch. Igor Anton attacked, as he had the previous day, but the peloton was led at pace by Jakob Fuglsang and caught him soon enough. A number of riders were dropped by this pace, including the Red Jersey wearer Dani Moreno, who was among those hurt at the start of the stage. Once his team were done on the front, it was Vincenzo Nibali’s turn to raise the pace and only Chris Horner, Ivan Basso and Joaquim Rodriguez were able to follow the move. Chris Horner then kicked clear of the lead group, while behind Thibaut Pinot, Aljeandro Valverde and Nicholas Roche were able to make their way back to Nibali’s group. For the next ten minutes Horner worked away steadily, slowly growing his lead, while behind him the chasers took turns to give little kicks before slowing and seeing who would respond. Basso was the most frequent aggressor and one of his kicks dropped Roche. Then Nibali gave a real attack, dropping the rest of his companions and setting off in a belated pursuit of Horner, however try as he might he was unable to make any inroads into Horner’s lead. Horner took an outstanding stage win and the Red Jersey. I won’t pretend that I wasn’t shocked he was so strong today, I had thought his form was slipping away already but clearly I was wrong. Nibali finished 48 seconds behind Horner, which translates to a 43 second deficit on the GC going into Wednesdays ITT, a discipline that suits Nibali more than Horner. Behind them Roche was able to make his way back on to the chasing group which was led by Thibaut Pinot, but he was dropped again before they reached the line. Valverde took 3rd and the small time bonus with it, Basso, Rodriguez and Pinot crossed the line with him at 1:02, with Roche coming in 8 seconds later. Pinot and Roche both showed real grit on an extremely tough climb. Behind them there were time gaps all over the place, a lot of riders lost their GC ambitions on the Alto de Hazallanas.

 

Looking ahead to Wednesday’s stage

Stage 11: Tarazona – Tarazona
Profile from http://www.lavuelta.com

The only individual time trial of the race, with little or no flat on the profile it’s not necessarily one for the specialists. It starts with an uphill drag to the official start of the climb at the 9km mark, though the rise 2km prior to that looks to be the steepest part of the stage. The 3rd cat climb is 9km at 4.1%, the final 20km is largely downhill. Given how he has been climbing Fabian Cancellara must be a contender for the stage, however Tony Martin is also looking in terrific shape right now. The climb will also bring some of the GC contenders into the mix, Vincenzo Nibali will look to excel and take the race lead.

2013 Vuelta a Espana Preview Two: The Main Contenders

It is hard to breakdown the riders involved in the 2013 Vuelta a Espana at this time because teams have yet to finalize their rosters. It is also hard to assess which riders are here to race for the Overall Classification and which have another agenda. Some are building form for the World Championships, this being a year where a climber has a legitimate shot at becoming the World Road Race Champion, makes that a prime target for many riders and the tough Vuelta course is an excellent preparation for it. Of course the two are not mutually exclusive goals, the Worlds race comes two weeks after after the Vuelta, but peaking too early and carrying too much fatigue is a concern. Riders who are aiming for the Worlds may choose to hold back a little, picking some stages to target for a stage win but making sure they don’t overdo it. Others will aim to peak for the decisive final week knowing they can carry that form through to the World Championships, provided they are still in the GC race at that point there is no reason to avoid competing. Many riders are coming out of breaks and working their way towards fitness, while some are trying to recover from racing in the Tour de France and may have to contend with accumulated fatigue. All in all predicting which riders are likely to excel in the Vuelta is a tricky affair. However we do know who the main contenders are likely to be so it makes sense to start this series of rider previews with them. Once the lineups are more complete I will publish further rider previews.

The 2013 Vuelta a Espana is loaded with uphill finishes, anything from short uphill sprints to extremely difficult mountain top finishes. You can find the stage profiles here http://www.lavuelta.com and I have a preview of those stages here https://procyclingkev.wordpress.com/2013/08/05/vuelta-a-espana-preview-one-stage-by-stage/. The number of uphill finishes and the fact the sole individual time trial stage features climbing, combine to create the ideal course for a pure climber. The only problem stage for the climbers is the opening one with the 27.4km team time trial, however most of the main contenders will have strong teams who can minimize the time they lose on that stage. There are a couple of stages where the race may encounter crosswinds which raises the possibility of echelons splitting the peloton but that is unpredictable. Although GC riders need to be vigilant for danger every day, the  2013 Vuelta a Espana is back loaded, with most of the likely significant days in the second half of the race. The opening TTT is followed by the first mountain top finish of the race, it’s not a tough one compared with the stages ahead but it should combine with the TTT to create some early time gaps in the GC race and leave some riders seeking ways to make up time lost. The next likely significant GC day comes on stage eight with the long climb up the Alto de Penas Blancas, there are some finishes in between where riders can attack the peloton but no significant time gaps would be expected. With riders hoping to combine the Vuelta with the Worlds, and possibly the Giro di Lombardia a week after that, many will hope to use the first 8-9 days to get into form without losing much time. However they had better be ready by the time the race gets to stage ten, the Alto Hazallanas is not for the faint hearted. Any rider who is far from their best is going to lose a lot of time on it, from this point the GC race is properly on.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez – Katusha

It’s not much of an exaggeration to suggest that Joaquim Rodriguez will never have a better chance to finally win a Grand Tour. He is now 34, has finished on the podium of all three Grand Tours, won stages at all three as well, he has won a monument (Giro di Lombardia), and won in the Ardennes (La Fleche Wallonne). Adding to his palmares with victory in the Vuelta would almost make his career complete. Purito has always been a pure climber, at his best on the steep sections where he can kick away from his heavier rivals. In the past he has always been let down by his time trialing, he has improved over time but it remains a weakness, unless of course it involves climbing. If Rodriguez was to design his ideal stage race, I suspect the parcours would have many uphill finishes and a mountainous ITT, just like the 2013 Vuelta.

Joaquim Rodriguez started the Tour de France a little out of sorts, but he had timed it so he would peak towards the end of the race. That final week form let him claw his way onto the podium, if he can find that form again in the Vuelta he stands a great chance of winning. The one worry must be fatigue after racing a tough Tour de France. It isn’t easy to finish three tough weeks of racing and be ready to reprise that effort five weeks later. It often catches a rider out in the final week of the second tour when accumulated fatigue just saps the legs right when the going gets toughest. He won’t have raced at all in the period in between in an effort to recover and avoid that slump during the Vuelta. Of course that could mean he isn’t at his best at the start but that’s alright, so long as he is getting close to his best after the first 8-9 stages.

 

Alejandro Valverde – Movistar

The 2009 winner, Alejandro Valverde was also 2nd overall in 2012 and is well suited to the parcours. A very strong climber with a surprisingly fast finish for a climber, Valverde is also a strong time trialist, though he can be distanced by the elite climbers on the toughest climbs. 2013 hasn’t been a banner year for Valverde, his form has been good enough but he hasn’t been able to land the big results. 2nd in the Amstel Gold Race, 3rd in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 2nd again in the Classica Ciclista San Sebastian. He was looking strong at the Tour de France but misfortune and a questionable decision left him 10 minutes adrift in the winds of stage thirteen and the race was beyond him, though he still finished 8th overall. Once out of contention, Valverde alternated between supporting Nairo Quintana and seeking a chance to pursue a stage win, though he never came close than 3rd. Valverde clearly has talent to contest the overall victory here but he may find it hard to recover from his exertions at the Tour, his legs could well be hampered by fatigue in the final week. Between the Tour and the Vuelta his only race will have been that one day in San Sebastian, it will help with the fatigue but may see him undercooked for the Vuelta.

Alejandro Valverde does have a great skill set for this years World Championship race and it has been suggested that he might hold back in the Vuelta, pick some stages to try and win and work towards the World Championships rather than putting everything into winning the Vuelta. He won two stages in 2012, taking his total to 7 stage wins in the Vuelta and it also netted him the Points Jersey. With so many finishes that suit him he should be one of the favorites to win stages in this race, regardless of whether or not he is riding for the GC. The Movistar squad will have potential alternative GC riders so it is a possibility, though Valverde has been named as team captain and I suspect that he will he will be there to win. It’s possible they will let his form dictate it, in which case, if he is still in close contention after stage, ten then he rides for the GC.

 

Vincenzo Nibali – Astana

The 2010 winner, Vincenzo Nibali comes to the Vuelta while enjoying his greatest season as a cyclist. His Giro d’Italia victory was a tour de force, he was simply dominant and a very deserving winner. That performance was on a similar level to Chris Froome’s at the Tour de France, their expected clash in the 2014 Tour is something to look forward to. He had shown his form beforehand, winning at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Giro del Trentino. He is another superb climber, when on form he can give 2-3 good hard kicks on the climbs, he does like to attack and is a terrific descender. He can also be a strong enough time trialist, and can dominate when it’s not a flat course, he will be a favorite on stage 11.

Nibali has admitted that sponsorship commitments meant he didn’t get as much structured rest and training after the Giro as he would have liked. As a result he arrived at the Tour of Poland a little behind in his preparations, he will have been happy with the difficult course then as it helped get him into condition. He looked stronger at the Vuelta a Burgos, where he contended for the win right up until the final 2km at which point he couldn’t follow Quintana and struggled home almost 50 seconds down. Not ideal perhaps but it was much better than he had looked in Poland and he has the time to find his best for the second half of the Vuelta. After the Giro Nibali immediately began preparing for the World Championships on home soil, it’s his priority for the 2nd half of the season and it could affect his motivation at the Vuelta if he is struggling at all by the mid way point. However peaking for the final week will give him excellent form for the Worlds so I don’t see any real issue. Although he has already completed a Grand Tour this year, the fact that the Giro finished in May and he has had time to recover from that, should make fatigue less of a factor than it is for those coming from the Tour.

 

Samuel Sanchez – Euskaltel-Euskadi

Samuel Sanchez has spent a career riding for the Basque Euskaltel-Euskadi, with their expected demise this represents his final chance to win the Vuelta in their colors. At 35, and facing a search for a new team, it may well be his final chance to win it altogether. A former Olympic Champion, Sanchez has always been a gifted and attacking rider on punchy climbs and he is another terrific descender who doesn’t hesitate to use that to his advantage. While the course is good for him his form may not b equal to the task. He hasn’t been at his best in 2013, he was off the pace in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco and struggled in the Giro where he was only able to finish 12th, though his form was improving towards the end. He did win a stage in the Criterium du Dauphine when he and Jacob Fuglsang went away on the penultimate climb and contested the win, a victory which should both his tactical nous and his ability to look like he was suffering. He returned from a two month break at the Vuelta a Burgos and was again a little off the pace, though that would be expected in his first race back. He has been doing a lot of altitude training and will hope to use the first week of the Vuelta to find his racing legs ahead of the crucial stages. I think he may be included in the list of favorites more on hope than genuine expectation, but if he finds his form he will be fresher than some of his rivals. He could pull off a surprise.

 

Bauke Mollema – Belkin Pro Cycling

For many in cycling, Bauke Mollema appeared to have something of a coming out party at the Tour de France, where he had ridden into a podium place before fading at the end. It was revealed after the race the he had been suffering a little with illness in the last week. It was a continuation of the form he had shown in the Tour de Suisse, where he finished 2nd, and in many ways it was only a surprise because he had always played second fiddle to Robert Gesink. Mollema was free to ride for himself in the Vuelta in 2011 and finished 4th, giving a glimpse of his potential and giving him a fondness for the race. He was always a strong all round performer but he has taken his climbing to another level in 2013, even so I think he could struggle a little on some of the toughest mountain finishes, the lack of a flatter ITT also harms his chances as he would be expected to beat most of his GC rivals on a flatter course. The course may not be in his favor, and he may feel the effects of fatigue, having raced the Tour de France, but his performance there will have his self belief sky high right now and that can compensate a little.

 

Ivan Basso – Cannondale

Ivan Basso is a double Giro winner, 2006 and 2010, but has only competed in the Vuelta once before, finishing 4th in 2009. At 35, and having shown signs of decline in the last two seasons, I’d believed the days of Ivan Basso as a Grand Tour contender were in the past. It certainly seemed that way early in 2013 as he was really struggling to find form prior to the Giro. However he developed a cyst and had to withdraw from the Cannondale squad prior to the start, and was then left out of the Tour de France squad. It gave him an enforced break from training and racing and it seems to have let him finally find some form as he builds up for the Vuelta. In the Tour de Pologne, he was there or there abouts on the toughest climbs in the Dolomites, it was a positive sign. He followed that up with a more impressive performance on the final day of the Vuelta a Burgos, which featured a finish atop the tough Lagunas de Neila. On the climb Basso was able to follow the moves when Nibali, Quintana and David Arroyo went up the road. Inside the final 2 km, Arroyo attacked, Nibali and Quintana countered but Basso was unable to follow, instead he simply set his own pace and powered his way to the finish, passing Nibali and catching Arroyo. It was a very encouraging sign for Basso and his best performance of 2013 so far. Basso is another gifted climber, but unlike most of those already mentioned, he isn’t an explosive one. Instead he is best setting a high pace he is comfortable with and working his way up the climbs. It’s hard to believe that Ivan Basso really is going to roll back the years but he does have one big advantage over the other contenders, he hasn’t competed in a Grand Tour this year. He will be the freshest of all of the competitors and is already showing good form.

 

Sergio Henao – Sky Procycling

It seems you can’t have a Grand Tour race without a Sky rider contending, this time it’s Sergio Henao’s turn. The 25 year old Colombian will go to the Vuelta as team leader, with his compatriot Rigoberto Uran there in support, both riders will have an eye on the World Championships that follow. Henao is an excellent climber, he is at his best on the steeper climbs, as he showed in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco, while winning a stage with a 20% incline at the finish. He showed good form early in 2013, finishing 3rd overall in that race and 2nd in La Fleche Wallonne, he also looked very strong at the start of the Giro but ran out of form half way through. I had the impression that he wasn’t originally scheduled to ride there, but had been added to the team at short notice. Henao finished 14th in the 2012 Vuelta where he was riding in support of Chris Froome, however this time he gets the chance to ride for himself. It will be a good experience for him and with a parcours well suited to him, he is a potential stage winner and a podium contender. Henao had a two month break after the Giro, returning at the Tour de Pologne, where he looked good but with work to do to get his form right. His legs will certainly be fresher than they were in the Giro and he could well be a contender for the overall victory.