With an impressive parcours, see here, and a strong start list featuring an impressive field of stage racers, the 2014 Tirreno-Adriatico looks set to be a very exciting race. The withdrawal of Chris Froome does rob us of one of this seasons only head to head battles between Froome and Quintana, however instead we gain some insight into how the contenders for the Giro compare two months out. With all three elite sprinters in attendance as well as a number of other fast finishers, the sprints on stages two, six and potentially three, should be terrific; a rare opportunity to see the best sprinters go head to head at this stage of the season.
The contenders
Alberto Contador – Tinkoff-Saxo: This is a crucial season for Alberto Contador as he seeks to prove that he can return to his best. He was terrific when winning the Vuelta in 2012, going very deep to do so and I still suspect that had a knock on effect on his off-season training prior to 2013. The hangover from that lasted throughout 2013, by the end of March he was already complaining of fatigue and never seemed to recover. So Contador approached the 2014 season with a new training and race program in an effort to win the biggest races once again. If the new regimen is working then we should expect to see Contador to the fore in this race and in the two that follow, the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya and the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco. His season started well when he won a stage and finished 2nd overall in the Volta ao Algarve, the terrain and competition will be much tougher for Tirreno-Adriatico, so it’s reassuring that he has the support of Roman Kreuziger and Nicolas Roche. Kreuziger in particular showed good form to finish 5th in Strade Bianche at the weekend and would be a viable alternative leadership option for the team.
Nairo Quintana – Movistar: Movistar will be led by star climber Nairo Quintana, who looks certain to be a major contender for the overall victory. While he can time trial well for his build he will always be vulnerable on the flat courses the Colombian knows he will lose time to some on the final stage so he will have to be aggressive on stages four and five to ensure he enters the final day with a lead. Quintana may find his best opportunity comes on the very steep Muro di Guardiagrele where being shorter and lighter gives him an advantage, but he is always dangerous on a stage with a summit finish. Quintana will have strong support in the mountains, and the wealth of time trialing talent on the Movistar squad should ensure that Quintana avoids losing any significanttime to his rivals on the opening stage.
Rigoberto Uran – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: Early into his first season as a team leader, the Colombian climber has already been making a good impression. He looked good in the Tour of Oman, finishing 3rd overall while recording 2nd and 3rd place finishes on the two most difficult stages. Uran will be keen to follow that up with an even stronger showing in Italy. He won’t be alone either as Michal Kwiatkowski gives the team a very strong second GC contender, one who comes into the race on the back of an exciting victory in Strade Bianche. Last season Kwiatkowski used Tirreno-Adriatico to really announce himself as a contender on the world stage, wearing the leader’s jersey and finishing 4th overall, there is no reason to doubt he can repeat that, or even improve upon it this year.
Richie Porte – Team Sky: Although he is a late addition to the race after the withdrawal of Chris Froome, Porte had been preparing to defend his Paris-Nice title so he should be just fine. In truth the switch benefits him as he is a better fit for Tirreno-Adriatico’s more traditional stage race parcours. Porte hasn’t approached his best form so far this season, so while this race will give him a great insight into where he stands compared to his Giro rivals, it may not tell us that much about how well he will be going in May. There will certainly be no shortage of support, with climbers and engines aplenty, and as with Movistar, the Sky unit looks well equipped to excel on the opening stage TTT
Cadel Evans – BMC Racing Team: With his sights firmly set on the Giro, and his roots now planted in Italy, Evans will be eager to succeed here. He started the season showing good but not yet great form in Australia, Evans took a little time off after that but a 7th place finish in Strade Bianche shows that he is getting back into form in time for Tirreno-Adriatico. Evans won the race in 2011 and to repeat that feat he needs to stay in touch with Quintana, Contador and whoever else seizes the initiative on the mountain stages; it won’t be easy, but if he has the form to do so then a podium finish is certainly possible.
Daniel Moreno – Katusha Team: An explosive climber, Moreno will lead the Russian team in Tirreno-Adriatico, while the time trials won’t be too his liking, the climbing certainly will and he could be a dangerous rider for the overall classification. Moreno comes to the fore when the gradients are steepest, as he did when attacking on the Mur de Huy to win La Fleche Wallonne last year, and as he will likely try to do on the Muro di Guardiagrele at the conclusion of stage five.
Chris Horner – Lampre-Merida: Horner has had a quiet start to his career with the Italian team but they will be hoping that the winner of the 2013 Vuelta a Espana can start to deliver here, particularly as it is on Italian soil. The 42 year old was 6th overall in last year’s race and the mountainous stages should certainly suit him. If Horner struggles to repeat that, then the team can call on either Damiano Cunego or Diego Ulissi, both of whom have shown some good form recently; Ulissi may be particularly interested in the finish of stage five.
Robert Gesink – Belkin Pro Cycling Team: Gesink comes to Italy in good form after 6th and 5th overall finishes in the Tour Down Under and the Tour of Oman respectively. He looked good on Green Mountain, finishing 5th on the stage and while he wasn’t able to follow Chris Froome, nor was anyone else. Gesink was 2nd overall in the 2011 edition of Tirreno-Adriatico, and while it will be difficult for him to repeat that he will hope to come close. With Bauke Mollema in attendance the team has a second GC option and the leadership will likely be determined by their form on the road. Mollema has less racing in his legs than Gesink, but he looked decent on both uphill finishes in the Vuelta a Andalucia and with two more weeks of training since he could be dangerous.
Andrew Talansky – Garmin-Sharp: This time last season, the young American was winning over fans with a strong and very aggressive display on his way to a 2nd overall finish in Paris-Nice. A little too aggressive perhaps as his attacks on the fifth stage left him vulnerable when Porte launched his own attack, ultimately costing Talansky the Yellow Jersey. The talented American is assuming more of a leadership role this season and this is his first chance to show how much he has progressed. An excellent time trialist, Talansky will be hoping to upset some of the bigger names and fight his way into the top five, provided he is the teams designated leader in the race. Daniel Martin is finally beginning his 2014 campaign and is certainly capable of contending in this race. However he may ride in support of Talansky, while building his own form to defend the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya and hit the Ardennes in top form.
Jean-Christophe Peraud – AG2R La Mondiale: The lack of a time trial or a high mountain finish in Paris-Nice has led the veteran Peraud to opt to ride Tirreno-Adriatico instead. Peraud is strong against the clock and a solid climber and is a legitimate GC contender as a result. He finished 3rd overall in Paris-Nice at this time last season and is once again enjoying a good early season form, having finished 2nd overall in the Tour Mediterraneen. Domenico Pozzovivo gives the team an alternative option, the finish to the fifth stage is particularly suited to the diminutive climber, though he is likely to lose some time during the flat ITT on the final day. His attack during Roma Maxima last Sunday shows that he is in good shape right now and he could be very dangerous in this race.
Jurgen Van den Broeck – Lotto Belisol: After an injury truncated 2013 season, it was always going to be a slow start to the season for the Belgian stage race specialist. He has traditionally preferred to start finding his form at the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya which starts a week after Tirreno-Adriatico, however after few races to get his condition back and having had a disappointing 2013, he should be looking to be competitive here.
Pierre Rolland – Europcar: It’s been a slow start to the season for the Frenchman but he will be hoping to make much more of an impression here. After the team earned promotion to the World Tour, a decision was made to broaden Rolland’s racing horizons, giving him a race schedule with a more international flavour to it. It was partly motivated by a desire to move him away from the endless pressure of being one of the next big French riders, but it is also an important step in his development and will see him ride a number of stage races that suit his skill set. This edition of Tirreno-Adriatico is one such race, the difficult mountain days should bring the best out of Rolland and give him great preparation for his bigger targets later in the season.
Tanel Kangert – Astana Pro Team: Much depends on the role that the team give to Kangert, is he riding in support of Michele Scarponi, or riding as the leader? I hope he is given his shot as a leader; his work over the past two seasons merits the opportunity to test himself as a leader in a prestigious stage race. Kangert is a very good climber and useful time trialist who has really developed a strong all-round skill set; he has enough speed to make him a potential stage winner if a group of climber comes to the line. Of course Astana could choose to back Michele Scarponi instead, the hugely experienced Italian climber will lead the team at the Giro later this year and is capable of producing a strong ride on this parcours.
Stefano Pirazzi – Bardiani-CSF: Pirazzi is an explosive climber and winner of the Mountains Classification in the Giro d’Italia last year, and also in the 2012 edition of this race. He could target the KoM jersey once again in this race and if he sneaks into the break on stage two that’s what he is doing. However the team talked last year of pushing Pirazzi as a GC rider in the future; with a strong field and a testing parcours, this race is a perfect opportunity to test his progress and potential in that regard.
Ivan Basso – Cannondale: After a fairly turgid 2013 season in which he started very slowly, Basso will be hoping for something altogether more impressive this year, and a strong showing in Tirreno-Adriatico would really help with that. In fairness to Basso, after a sluggish start and a number of injury/illness absences, he did start to show good form in the Vuelta, only to suffer and withdraw from the race after some wretched weather conditions. Stage four will be key for Basso, the long climbs have always suited him, and while he is unlikely to recapture the form that won him the 2010 Giro d’Italia, he is still capable of pulling out a good performance in a race such as this.
Thibaut Pinot- FDJ.fr: Pinot had an up and down season in 2013 and will be hoping to finally get this one off to a decent start, after illness forced his withdrawal from the Tour of Oman. It’s hard to know what to expect from him given his lack of racing, but Pinot remains a gifted climber who is willing to go on the offensive. Alexandre Geniez could well be the leader if Pinot is struggling for race fitness, and would be a solid option, the team hope he can mature into more of a leadership role but he isn’t there yet.
Robert Kiserlovski – Trek Factory Racing: The Croatian climber is the teams GC rider in this race and will hope to go very well on the two mountainous stages to compensate for the time he will likely lose on the final day. Stage four and the final climb to Selva Rotonda should suit him well. He should have capable support from one of the best climbers of the early season in Julian Arredondo, the Colombian won two summit finishes during the Tour de San Luis and looks well suited to the very steep finish on stage five.
Ivan Santaromita – Orica GreenEDGE: the Italian Champion is a good climber and will be keen to impress in his Italian Jersey on home soil, though it will be tough for him to break into the top 10 against this level of competition.
The stage winners
Andre Greipel – Lotto Belisol: The form sprinter of the year so far, the powerful German will be hoping to stand atop the podium once again. Victories in the Tour Down Under, Tour of Qatar and Tour of Oman have showcased Greipel’s power and speed as well as the Lotto Belisol lead out train. Greipel has also been climbing consistently well which is a testament to his form and fitness, though the mountainous stages here are far beyond him. With Kittel and Cavendish in attendance, the support of a strong lead out to support him, and the desire to bring his form to a peak ahead of Milan-San Remo, he will be a force in all of the sprint stages.
Mark Cavendish – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: Cavendish has eased his way into the 2014 season, slowly building fitness and using the early races to work through some of the kinks in the OPQS sprint train. He picked up his first win in the Volta ao Algarve, but the absence of top ten finishes prior to that would certainly suggest he was riding for training rather than riding to win. Over the last few seasons Cavendish has often been some way from his best in Tirreno-Adriatico, saving his energies for the bigger targets to come. Yet the presence of both Greipel and Kittel in this race turns this into a more serious affair for all three sprinters, and he will certainly be keen to hit top form ahead of what may be his final ride of La Primavera.
Marcel Kittel – Giant-Shimano: The third elite sprinter comes into the race after a less than ideal build up. After finding his form with a trio of straight forward victories in the Dubai Tour, Kittel was forced to withdraw from his next race, the Vuelta a Andalucia, on the second day citing a lack of power. Additionally, unlike Greipel and Cavendish, Kittel won’t be riding Milan-San Remo and as a result he may not be in quite the same shape as the other two, which would put him at a disadvantage. Even so with two great opportunities for bunch sprints against the best sprinters in the world, Kittel will be keen to demonstrate that his dominance of the sprints in last season’s Tour de France represents the new order..
Peter Sagan – Cannondale: A double stage winner in last year’s race, with less intermediate type stages the Slovak superstar may find that difficult to match this time round. He will of course be competitive in the sprints, but winning a large bunch sprint against all three elite sprinters will be tough, though if winds break things up it will greatly improve his chances. With the classics just around the corner Sagan should also be reaching a slightly higher level of fitness that the elite sprinters and that could level the playing field, he certainly looked very strong when he broke free from the leading group in Strade Bianche. The third stage should give him his best opportunity for victory; the ramping finish is ideal for him and makes life harder for the purer sprinters. While Sagan can normally compete for wins on some of the more hilly stages, I don’t see it happening this time, stage four is just too mountainous and the gradients at the conclusion of the fifth stage are too steep and suit other riders better.
Sacha Modolo – Lampre-Merida: With four victories already, Modolo’s Lampre-Merida career has gotten off to a flying star; he will carry a lot of confidence into this race. It won’t be easy for him to win given the collection of sprinters in attendance, but the top sprinters are often still slightly vulnerable at this stage of the season and Modolo is coming here with great form so he certainly has a chance. Lampre-Merida can also call on the services of Filippo Pozzato, and while I am not convinced any of the stages will be ideal for him, he could try his luck on stage three with the drag up to the finish.
Arnaud Demare – FDJ.fr: With a stage win in the Tour of Qatar and showing good form in Belgium last weekend, Demare comes to Italy in good shape and should be competitive on all the sprint stages. Watch out for him on stage three in particular, the ramp up to the finish line changes the dynamic of the sprint and Demare showed just how explosive he could be in an uphill sprint during the Eneco Tour last summer.
Gerald Ciolek – MTN Qhubeka: The German sprinter shocked everyone when he won Milan-San Remo last season. Ciolek had long been considered a talent, but a career that was once full of youthful promise seemed to have stagnated. He stepped down from the World Tour, signed for what was then a somewhat obscure South African team that was making its first foray into the Pro Continental ranks, then out of nowhere he lands a career defining result, a magnificent day for rider and team. While they have yet to receive the Grand Tour invite that most cycling fans want them to get, fingers crossed for the Vuelta, that result has ensured they have a healthy portfolio of wild card invites to World Tour events; they will be keen to impress. Once again Ciolek is their best bet for success, he is a good sprinter but may find the competition on stages two and six a little too tough to challenge for a win, however the uphill drag finish on stage three should be much more to his liking.
Tony Martin – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: The World Time Trial Champion will be part of a very strong team time trial unit for the opening stage and an obvious favourite for the ITT on the final day. Although he is generally at his best on the longer time trials where his terrific power can do more damage, Martin is also excellent on shorter technical courses; he won the stage last year and clearly knows what it will take to do it again.
Philippe Gilbert – BMC Racing Team: The Belgian showed he was reaching decent form with a solid run in Roma Maxima and should be dangerous if he finds himself in position to go for a stage win. He could contend on stage three but I’m not sure the finish is steep enough to swing the advantage his way over some of the faster finishers.
Adriano Malori – Movistar: Along with Alex Dowsett, Andrey Amador and Jonathan Castroviejo, Malori is part of a Movistar team that will be very hard to beat in the team time trial on the opening day. Any of them could contend in the ITT on the final day but Malori has been the strongest this season and will fancy his chances of taking his second victory against the clock.
Fabian Cancellara – Trek Factory Racing: After Strade Bianche, it is clear that Cancellara’s form isn’t quite there yet, but it’s getting close and this race should be enough to bring it to where it needs to be ahead of the Classics. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Cancellara try an attack somewhere to stretch his legs, whether going in a break or trying to get involved on the finish of stage three. Clearly his best stage winning opportunity will come on the final stage and the ITT, while he is no longer a pure time trial specialist, he remains terrific in that discipline. This is a solid Trek lineup that includes another strong time trialist in Jesse Sergent, so the team should be amongst the best on the opening stage as well.
Luke Durbridge – Orica GreenEDGE: Part of a strong team time trial unit with Svein Tuft, Michael Hepburn, Cameron Meyer and Jens Mouris, any of whom could be targeting success on the final stage.
Sam Bennett – NetApp-Endura: The 23 year old Irish sprinter comes into the race on the crest of a wave, a first victory in NetApp-Endura colours at the Clasica Almeria, following on from impressive performances in Qatar and Oman. Realistically this race is a huge step up in class and not one where he is likely to compete at this stage of his career, though he will benefit hugely from the experience of sprinting against the best in the world. However confidence is huge in sprinting and he has it right now, so you never know.
Sonny Colbrelli – Bardiani-CSF: The Italian team have a number of punchy riders or fast finishers, taking form and strength of field into consideration, Colbrelli looks to be their strongest potential stage winner on this parcours. The 23 year old already has nine top 5 road finishes to his credit this season, most coming on hillier stages with sprints from a reduced peloton. While he probably isn’t the teams fastest option for the flat finishes, neither Nicola Ruffoni nor Filippo Fortin are likely to find much joy against the elite sprinters that are present. Colbrelli’s best chance may come on stage three with the uphill sprint finish, but it will be tough for him to make an impact against the calibre of riders in this race. Enrico Battaglin shares some similarities to Colbrelli, but doesn’t have the same form coming into the race.
Heinrich Haussler – IAM Cycling: Haussler gives the Swiss team an option the sprints and along with Matteo Pelucchi will be their most likely stage winner, though that will be difficult against this competition. His best chance will come if winds have broken things up..
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