The 9th edition of the Tour of California once again looks like an excellent race, though hopefully the temperature won’t be quite as punishing, it looks set to be warm, but nowhere close to extreme, but you never know if those predictions will prove accurate.
The race starts with a certain sprint finish in Sacremento, before the 20.1km ITT on day two which will see the race lead change hands. The third stage offers the first summit finish of the race on Mount Diablo, last year Leopold Konig (NetApp-Endura) took stage honours there, after attacking on the steeper sections towards the top of the climb. There is likely to be a third leader in as many days after the climb, but the time gaps between the favourites shouldn’t be huge.
The GC contest should take a break on stage four as the sprinters return to the fore, there are a couple of bumps in the road but nothing to serious. Stage five should see yet another sprint, but this time the presence of the San Marcos climb close to the finish will likely see a reduced group reach the finish, anyone dropped will have to work hard to chase back on in time for the sprint.
Stage six features the second summit finish of the race and should prove decisive for the GC competition. Much like Mt. Diablo on stage three, the Big Pines Highway Climb is steepest at the top, the final 2.5km average 7.4%, however peaking at 2071m the altitude is almost double that of Mt. Diablo, and it is the last chance for the best climbers to really excel. Stage seven will probably result in the final sprint in the race, there are some climbs which could prove problematic for some sprinters, but only if a team decides to set a punishing pace. Finally the race finishes with a circuit race in Thousand Oaks, there is a significant climb in the course which caused many splits when it was used in 2010, Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) won that day and I’d expect a similarly strong rider to excel this time as well.
Team Guide (not all line-ups are confirmed so some riders mentioned may not be there)
BMC Racing Team: Expect Peter Stetina to mount a strong challenge for the GC as the team try to defend the title Tejay van Garderen won in 2013. Stetina is a strong climber and will relish the opportunity to ride for himself, after spending most of his career as a strong climbing domestique. Taylor Phinney will target the ITT, while Thor Hushovd and Greg Van Avermaet can mix it in the tougher sprint finishes.
Garmin-Sharp: As usual Garmin-Sharp have brought a strong team with many options. Tom Danielson is the most experienced leader, but he has been struggling with illness recently which may mean the team turns to the strong time trialist Rohan Dennis or one of last year’s stars Janier Acevedo. With Alex Howes, who looked strong in the Ardennes, and Lachlan Morton available the team have a plethora of attacking options.
Omega Pharma-Quick Step: With Mark Cavendish showing good form in the Tour of Turkey, and a team packed full of powerful rider, OPQS are here to dominate the sprints. Tom Boonen may be an option on the tougher sprint finishes if Cavendish can’t hold in the lead group.
Trek Factory Racing: If this is to be the final appearance of Jens Voigt in the Tour of California, expect him to try and go out with another long distance attack. Young Danny van Poppel will seek to get involved in the sprints, and Matthew Busche could have the chance to compete as a leader, but the most interesting rider may be Jesse Sergent who produced a terrific time trial in the Tour de Romandie and will want to follow that up with victory in stage two.
Team Sky: It seems that Team Sky are coming to California to race for Bradley Wiggins, he certainly hasn’t been shy about his desire to compete for the overall win here. With a flattish ITT in his favour, Wiggins’ prospects rest entirely upon how well he copes with the two summit finishes. The fact that they have relatively constant gradients for most of their duration will help, but he could struggle to keep in touch on the steep upper slopes.
Orica GreenEDGE: It’s been a quiet enough start to the season for Matthew Goss, he has finished second twice but had precious few opportunities to chase his first win of the season. He will get that opportunity here, but may find his best chance comes if he can survive in the front group on stage five, in the hope that Cavendish does not. Adam Yates was the star of the Tour of Turkey, but the team may look to Johan Esteban Chaves to lead their GC challenge here.
Cannondale: Once again Cannondale are headed by the phenomenal Peter Sagan. He will likely struggle to match Cavendish in the normal sprints, but can certainly survive the climbs to make it to the more difficult sprint finishes, where he excels.
Belkin Pro Cycling: Laurens Ten Dam is seeking to recapture the form that took him to 13th overall in the Tour de France last year, so that he can challenge for the GC here. He isn’t the only option for Belkin, sprinter Moreno Hofland has enjoyed terrific success so far this season and could surprise, while Lars Boom is always a dangerous man if he spots an opportunity to go on the offensive.
Giant-Shimano: Versatile German sprinter John Degenkolb will be the teams main focus in the race, at his best on the tougher finishes, Degenkolb should be able to contest the majority of he finishes in the race. The team are letting Daan Olivier, Lawson Craddock and Chad Haga compete to be the leader by seeing who has the best form early in the race.
UnitedHealthcare: Lucas Euser will once again give them a solid leader, but the teams most consistently impressive rider so far this season has been Marc de Maar, look for him to feature in the breaks once again. More intriguing would be the inclusion of the talented Colombian climber Isaac Bolivar, 3rd overall in the Tour de Langkawi earlier in the season, it will be fascinating to see how he copes in this company.
NetApp-Endura: No Leopold Konig this year, the Czech rider has been struggling with injury, however a resurgent Tiago Machado alongside Jose Mendes will ensure the team is strong in the mountains once again.
Novo Nordisk: The all-diabetic team will likely look to Javier Megias and Andrea Peron for their greatest chances of success. Megias climbs well enough to be in contention on all terrain and is a likely choice for a break on a hilly stage. Peron is the team sprinter, while outmatched in this company; they will hope he can get himself involved in the bunch finishes
Optum p/b Kelly Benefit Strategies: With Ryan Anderson for the sprint stages, American TT Champion Tom Zirbel for the ITT, and Carter Jones to attack on the tougher stages, Optum seem to have someone for every terrain. Jones won the mountains classification in this race last year, and comes into the race in terrific form after claiming the overall victory in the Tour of the Gila.
Jelly Belly p/b Maxxis: The everlasting Freddie Rodriguez and Jakob Rathe give the team options for the sprints, though whomever they choose will struggle against this competition. Veteran Australian climber Matthew Lloyd will enjoy the opportunity to ride for himself after many years as a domestique on top tier teams.
Jamis-Hagens Berman: Having lost Janier Acevedo after his superb 2013 season, Jamis-Hagens Berman didn’t panic; they simply went out and signed talented climbers Gregory Brenes and Daniel Jaramillo to replace him. 23 year old Colombian Jaramillo has started his career with the team well with a double stage inning performance at the Tour of the Gila, while Costa Rican Brenes was 2nd overall in the same race. Brenes looked impressive during the Tour of Utah last season, and was even better in the USA Pro Cycling Challenge just after that, finishing 6th overall, he will likely be hoping for a top 10 performance in his race.
Bissell Development Team: As always the former Bontrager team have several talented young riders but they may not be ready to make an impression on this years race. For the sprints they will look to Nicolai Brøchner, who looks to have an impressive future as a sprinter for the classics. While James Oram, Clement Chévrier and Tao Geoghegan Hart give the team options for the more mountainous stages, though only Oram has any experience of this level of racing.
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