It’s mid-February and the cycling season is slowly starting to warm up. Recent races have placed the spotlight upon the sprinters and classics riders, but we should now start to see some of the climbers and GC riders come to the fore. This week has the 2.HC Tour of Oman, the 2.1 Vuelta a Andalucia, the 2.1 Volta ao Algarve, the 1.1 Trofeo Laigueglia and the 2.1 Tour du Haut Var, all races with plenty of climbing. It’s true that the major targets for the climbers are still far off, races such as the Ardennes Classics and the Giro d’Italia, never mind the Tour de France, so the riders are still early in their fitness programs, however with Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico rapidly approaching, anyone hoping for success there must be in decent condition at this stage, which sets us up for a good week of racing.
This will be the 40th edition of the Volta ao Algarve but it has only been in the last 10-15 years that it has proven to be a popular hunting ground for some of the more famous names in cycling, many of whom come here building form ahead of the classics. Floyd Landis, Alessandro Petacchi, Stijn Devolder, Alberto Contador, Richie Porte and most recently Tony Martin have all won the race in the past decade, and Martin has returned to defend his title, but it will be a tough task for the World Time Trial Champion.
Last year’s race was curtailed by financial restrictions and only featured four stages, two relatively flat finishes, the usual summit finish on the Alto do Malhão and a decisive 34.8km time trial. Martin lost a little time on the Alto do Malhão but gained it back in spades during the time trial to seal a convincing overall victory. When he first won the race back in 2011, the time trial was a more modest 17.2km but Martin had finished with the lead group on the Alto do Malhão that year, entering the final stage just a few seconds down on the race leader. Retaining his title in 2014 is going to be tough, there are two hilly finishes which will give the best climbers an opportunity to gain time on Martin and the time trial has been truncated once again, this time to a mere 13.6km, which makes it hard for Martin to gain enough time to win unless he is climbing superbly as well.
The stages
Stage one should end in a sprint finish, but it won’t be entirely straightforward as the peloton will have to cross a short climb and then negotiate some awkward roundabouts before they reach the finishing stretch, which could break things up. The run-in also has several short ramps which create the opportunity for riders to go on the attack, as Paul Martens of Belkin did last year; they aren’t tough enough to open things up on their own, but if the hill and roundabouts wreak havoc beforehand then they are very dangerous.
Stage two is the longest of the race at 196km and packs a lot of climbing into the final third. Any fireworks should come on the final categorised climb, at 4.6km with a 7.6% average gradient and starting just 10.4km from the finish, it should provide a great launch pad for attacks but it remains to be seen whether it turns into a GC skirmish or ends with a sprint from a select group. With the time trial to follow, the onus will be on the climbers to gain time where they can so I do expect this stage to have a lively finish.
Stage three is a short individual time trial and will be targeted by Tony Martin as an opportunity to gain time on the better climbers and more importantly the chance to win his first stage of the season. The stage takes place close to the coast and could well be affected by winds which makes it a little unpredictable.
Stage four is the queen stage of the race and presents the riders with progressively tougher climbing as the stage progresses. The stage finishes atop the Alto do Malhão which is 2.6km long with an average gradient of 9.6%, it’s not the biggest challenge that the riders will face this season but it is tough enough to give an advantage to the best climbers. The peloton first climbs the Alto do Malhão with around 46km to go and then with 12.5km to go there is a nasty 1km long climb with a 13% gradient that is swiftly followed by the second and final ascent of the Alto do Malhão. With two short sharp climbs in the final 13km we should see an explosive finish.
Stage five finishes with an 11.9km circuit in Vilamoura and presents a second opportunity for the sprinters.
Contenders
With a second hilly stage and a truncated time trial, the balance of the race has clearly shifted for 2014 which makes it difficult for Tony Martin of Omega Pharma-Quick Step to retain his title. Difficult but not impossible, the two hilly stages should provide an opportunity for the best climbers to attack Martin, but the climbs are short and Martin can climb well, particularly when he has slimmed down in the past, so the time gaps aren’t going to be huge. In the most recent editions of the race the top 20-30 finishers on the Alto do Malhão have been separated by about a minute. In the last three years Martin has finished the stage 0:18 down, 0:40 down and alongside the stage winner, though those time losses are exacerbated by time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds for the first three across the line. However the balance of the race pushes the advantage towards a climber who can time trial well this year, rather than a time trialist who can climb well, which means it may be better suited to Martin’s team mate Michal Kwiatkowski. The Polish all-rounder really can do a little of everything, he is good against the clock, an excellent climber, and has the finishing speed to win stages and pick up bonus seconds. Kwiatkowski showed good form last week on Mallorca, winning the Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana and must be considered a serious contender for the overall victory.
Lampre-Merida’s Portuguese World Champion Rui Costa will be particularly motivated for this race, the opportunity to claim his first win in the Rainbow Jersey while on home soil is the stuff of dreams. He also has the right skill set to compete being a capable time trialist, an excellent climber and a potential stage winner. Costa demonstrated his desire to do the Rainbow Jersey justice by attacking during the Dubai Tour, despite the lack of terrain conducive to attacks; he will find the terrain in the Algarve much more hospitable.
Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo) kicks off his season and has stated he is hoping to win early in 2014, his first main target will be Tirreno-Adriatico and he should be a little rusty here, but to be good in three weeks time he must be in decent shape here. It’s a big year for Contador as he tries to show that he is still a legitimate contender for the Tour de France, that he isn’t yesterdays man, so I think we can expect to see him race aggressively right from the start. If Contador is off the pace a little then the team could look to Rafal Majka or perhaps Sergio Paulinho to carry their GC hopes, but it should be Contador.
Katusha have brought a pair of legitimate GC options with Simon Spilak and Sergei Chernetckii, two strong climbers and solid time trialists and either is capable of contending here, depending on form and the exact nature of the leadership dynamic. Spilak was terrific from this point through to the end of April last season, climbing superbly and showing the finishing speed to win on the hillier stages. The younger Chernetckii is a coming man for the Russian team, a developing GC rider who is well suited to this hilly parcours.
Jonathan Castroviejo should head the Movistar challenge, though with Adriano Malori, Alex Dowsett and Jesus Herrada in attendance the team will have plenty of options. However this race should give Castroviejo the opportunity to show how he is developing as a GC rider, he is a fine time trialist and should be comfortable on these climbs. The most obvious alternative leader for Movistar in this race is Jesus Herrada, solid against the clock and comfortable on the short climbs, he finished 11th overall last year and could do better this time. Although it will be hist first outing of the season Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is another to watch. The 22 year old Dutchman is another who possesses the requisite combination of climbing and time trialing to succeed in the Algarve and with a leadership role at the Giro to come he will be looking to take a significant step forward in 2014.
Tiago Machado will be hoping to launch his NetApp-Endura career in style, the Portuguese rider has a strong tradition in this race, finishing in the top 10 overall on six previous occasions. He has the all round skill set to contend and will be supported by Jose Mendes, a strong climber himself. Another option for the team in Jan Barta who is a very strong time trialist, and while he isn’t as gifted a climber as the others he should cope alright and limit any loses on these short hills. For Cofidis the challenge should be spearheaded by Jerome Coppel, who showed good form to finish 2nd in the Etoile de Besseges, and Rein Taaramae, both handy time trialists and good climbers.
Potential Stage Winners
One of the form sprinters of the early season, Sacha Modolo of Lampre-Merida deserves the top billing in this segment, though he will be hard pressed to add another win to his tally against this strong group of sprinters. Modolo has picked up three wins already in 2014, winning once in the Tour de San Luis and twice in the Mallorca Challenge, and should be the team’s first choice sprinter again for this race. He will be supported by Roberto Ferrari and Maximiliano Richeze, with Ferrari giving the team a solid alternate option should Modolo run into difficulties. Of course the biggest name sprinter in attendance is Mark Cavendish (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) who will be hoping to land his first win of the season. He is accompanied by two of his chief lead out men in Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Renshaw and providing he avoids the mishaps from Dubai should be the favourite for both sprint stages.
As well as Modolo, the strongest competition for Cavendish should come from two young French stars, Arnaud Demare (FDJ) and Bryan Coquard (Europcar). The strong Demare has already won in 2014, claiming victory in the final stage of the Tour of Qatar and will have strong support from Geoffrey Soupe and Mickael Delage. Coquard has also won in 2014, taking two stage wins in the Etoile de Besseges, and will be working on forming some sprint train chemistry with Jimmy Engoulvent and Maxime Mederel. Both the French sprinters can climb, and Coquard in particular could find himself in contention on the second stage if the GC riders don’t really open things up.
Juan Jose Lobato has had a solid start to his Movistar career, with 4th and 2nd place finishes to his credit from the sprints in the Dubai Tour, he will be the teams main option on stages one and five and has a realistic shot at a podium finish. The team have also brought the more opportunistic Jose Joaquin Rojas who could get himself in the mix for those sprints stages, but may find his best opportunity for success comes on the second stage if he can remain with the front group as they crest the final climb. Two other Movistar riders, Adriano Malori and Alex Dowsett should be in contention for the time trial on stage three, and if either has found their climbing legs they could force their way into the GC reckoning. Alexey Tsatevich of Katusha is another to watch for in the sprints, he should have support from Rudiger Selig and has the chance to be competitive here.
The sprints will likely be too competitive but both Danilo Napolitano (Wanty-Goubert) and Adrien Petit (Cofidis) should be decent outsiders for the sprint stages. The veteran Napolitano is in great shape ahead of the Belgian races at the start of March, he recently finished 2nd behind John Degenkolb in the opening stage of the Tour Mediterraneen. Twenty three year old Petit is at the other end of his career, but the French sprinter is talented and will be keen to test his legs against some of the biggest sprinters around.
Aside from the riders already mentioned, there are many who should illuminate the racing. Keep an eye on some of the talented young riders for Caja Rural, we can expect to see Heiner Rodrigo Parra, Omar Fraile or Ruben Fernandez on the offensive. There are a lot of Continental teams in this race, six of whom are Portuguese, and all of whom will be targeting stages two and four in the hope they can take the KoM Jersey and perhaps sneak a stage win.
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Anyone seeking further information about the race should check out the race website
Or the race page on Pro Cycling Stats